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Counterpoint: it took less than 10 years for 77%[1] of the US to own a smartphone, which has made many new businesses viable, including arguably the entire IoTs
by tomjen3 10y ago
Counterpoint: it took less than 10 years for 77%[1] of the US to own a smartphone, which has made many new businesses viable, including arguably the entire IoTs.
Then you have the secondary effects: the chips that are used as sensors in the phones are now cheap enough to put into everything. I have an e-parking device that automatically stops and shows the time when I park (many parking spots here are free, but can only be used for a limited time). It is not connected to anything, it just measures when the car moves.
[1]: http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/01/12/evolution-of-technology/ http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/01/12/evolution-of...
- nostrademons 10y agoIf you read Carlota Perez, this is consistent with a particular technology wave being near maturity. As markets/industries/economies mature, the number of new opportunities decreases significantly and they become progressively harder to spot, but the speed at which the few successful opportunities grow, the size of their markets, and the eventual valuation of the company increases. Basically, the whole population already has the prerequisites for technology adoption, so if somebody discovers something genuinely new, it'll spread very quickly. This is counterbalanced by there being very few such opportunities. The mature technology wave also tends to incubate the next wave as well, like how digital computers grew out of the dying gasps of mass-produced factory manufacturing, and the Internet grew out of the dying gasps of desktop & workstation software. It's likely that whatever comes next will incubate & get initial distribution on top of the Internet.