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>> big innovation deficit. >> not enough fundamental research going on to generate new technological opportunities. And on the other hand, the news is full of

by petra 10y ago

>> big innovation deficit. >> not enough fundamental research going on to generate new technological opportunities. And on the other hand, the news is full of items about technologies with large market impact, in almost every industry, and a lot of new technological building blocks. Some of it is crap, but still. >> We see this in the returns to innovation .. rareness of those returns. Maybe this is because of more intense competition - in the past you could had some years before someone copied you. Today, it happens much faster, and barriers to entry are often easier, at those stages.

nostrademons 10y ago
I think we're seeing faster innovation in certain areas (software, mostly), but much slower in others (material science, medicine, sensors, transportation). Remember that line in The Graduate (1967) - "I want to say one word to you: Plastics." You get a new Javascript framework every 6 months, but the last major materials to gain consumer adoption were carbon fiber & titanium in the 80s. The post-war years saw rapid consumer adoption of lots of technologies initially developed in the 20s and 30s but forced into rapid adoption by WW2: radar, sonar, aviation, refrigeration, antibiotics, nuclear energy, microwaves, air conditioners, interstate highways, computers, aluminum, plastics, synthetic rubber, rocketry, and then later the offshoots of rocketry & computers (GPS, software, and the Internet). That last wave is petering out now. There is evidence that a huge new wave is incubating now, with 3D printing, drones, telecommuting, cheap satellite launches, mesh networking, solar and wind energy, and more far-out technologies like carbon nanotubes, memristors, and solid-state batteries. But all of these technologies will need sustained R&D expenditures to get to a robustness & price point level that makes them suitable for consumer applications.
- tomjen3 10y ago
  Counterpoint: it took less than 10 years for 77%[1] of the US to own a smartphone, which has made many new businesses viable, including arguably the entire IoTs. Then you have the secondary effects: the chips that are used as sensors in the phones are now cheap enough to put into everything. I have an e-parking device that automatically stops and shows the time when I park (many parking spots here are free, but can only be used for a limited time). It is not connected to anything, it just measures when the car moves. [1]: http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/01/12/evolution-of-technology/ http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/01/12/evolution-of...
  - nostrademons 10y ago
    If you read Carlota Perez, this is consistent with a particular technology wave being near maturity. As markets/industries/economies mature, the number of new opportunities decreases significantly and they become progressively harder to spot, but the speed at which the few successful opportunities grow, the size of their markets, and the eventual valuation of the company increases. Basically, the whole population already has the prerequisites for technology adoption, so if somebody discovers something genuinely new, it'll spread very quickly. This is counterbalanced by there being very few such opportunities. The mature technology wave also tends to incubate the next wave as well, like how digital computers grew out of the dying gasps of mass-produced factory manufacturing, and the Internet grew out of the dying gasps of desktop & workstation software. It's likely that whatever comes next will incubate & get initial distribution on top of the Internet.
- petra 10y ago
  My list of innovations, currently happening is a bit longer:it's yours, plus IOT, VR, synthetic bio, food engineering across the board, ~AI, robotics and automation, genetic engineering(maybe hundreds in clinical trials?), a lot of innovation in medicine, transportation(even without self-driving, on-demand microtransit could replace lots of cars, EV's, affordable super-sonic airplane in development, lighter-than air transport, etc), affordable mri and a possible brain science revolution, etc etc. Potential for a lot of change, some of it very deep. EDIT: also i think there's a fundamental step up in the nature of scientific discovery - with the combination of miniaturization, robotics, and machine learning and simulation(sometimes) is a new, very potent discovery tool. And a lot of this is at the commercial level, and while more r&d could probably accelerate things, even staying at the current levels,we'll see a lot happening. But i'm not sure how can we compare what's next to what was before? what can compete with 0 infant mortality and nuclear weapons ? let's say we cured cancer, is it enough? Maybe not. Maybe a fully automated world can ? maybe. Naturally that's far harder than some vaccines and a critical mass of a bunch of stuff. But we may be getting there.
  - nostrademons 10y ago
    "Every person, the owner of a factory, able to profitably manufacture anything that they can design for a group of like-minded customers." That's the promise behind 3D printing + robotics + the Internet + drone delivery. "Live where your heart desires. Work on what your brain finds most interesting." Telecommuting + solar + mesh/satellite networking.
    - petra 10y ago
      The first thing: it's remind me of Youtube which can, theoretically, make everybody a global star, yet only a rare few make a living out of it. Really, a more economically realistic vision(depending on moore's law) would be high-quality VR for everybody, so everybody can be where their heart desires.
  - marssaxman 10y ago
    I like your list, except for IOT, which is innovation with negative value.

by petra 10y ago

nostrademons 10y ago

I think we're seeing faster innovation in certain areas (software, mostly), but much slower in others (material science, medicine, sensors, transportation). Remember that line in The Graduate (1967) - "I want to say one word to you: Plastics." You get a new Javascript framework every 6 months, but the last major materials to gain consumer adoption were carbon fiber & titanium in the 80s. The post-war years saw rapid consumer adoption of lots of technologies initially developed in the 20s and 30s but forced into rapid adoption by WW2: radar, sonar, aviation, refrigeration, antibiotics, nuclear energy, microwaves, air conditioners, interstate highways, computers, aluminum, plastics, synthetic rubber, rocketry, and then later the offshoots of rocketry & computers (GPS, software, and the Internet). That last wave is petering out now. There is evidence that a huge new wave is incubating now, with 3D printing, drones, telecommuting, cheap satellite launches, mesh networking, solar and wind energy, and more far-out technologies like carbon nanotubes, memristors, and solid-state batteries. But all of these technologies will need sustained R&D expenditures to get to a robustness & price point level that makes them suitable for consumer applications.

tomjen3 10y ago
Counterpoint: it took less than 10 years for 77%[1] of the US to own a smartphone, which has made many new businesses viable, including arguably the entire IoTs. Then you have the secondary effects: the chips that are used as sensors in the phones are now cheap enough to put into everything. I have an e-parking device that automatically stops and shows the time when I park (many parking spots here are free, but can only be used for a limited time). It is not connected to anything, it just measures when the car moves. [1]: http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/01/12/evolution-of-technology/ http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/01/12/evolution-of...
- nostrademons 10y ago
  If you read Carlota Perez, this is consistent with a particular technology wave being near maturity. As markets/industries/economies mature, the number of new opportunities decreases significantly and they become progressively harder to spot, but the speed at which the few successful opportunities grow, the size of their markets, and the eventual valuation of the company increases. Basically, the whole population already has the prerequisites for technology adoption, so if somebody discovers something genuinely new, it'll spread very quickly. This is counterbalanced by there being very few such opportunities. The mature technology wave also tends to incubate the next wave as well, like how digital computers grew out of the dying gasps of mass-produced factory manufacturing, and the Internet grew out of the dying gasps of desktop & workstation software. It's likely that whatever comes next will incubate & get initial distribution on top of the Internet.
petra 10y ago
My list of innovations, currently happening is a bit longer:it's yours, plus IOT, VR, synthetic bio, food engineering across the board, ~AI, robotics and automation, genetic engineering(maybe hundreds in clinical trials?), a lot of innovation in medicine, transportation(even without self-driving, on-demand microtransit could replace lots of cars, EV's, affordable super-sonic airplane in development, lighter-than air transport, etc), affordable mri and a possible brain science revolution, etc etc. Potential for a lot of change, some of it very deep. EDIT: also i think there's a fundamental step up in the nature of scientific discovery - with the combination of miniaturization, robotics, and machine learning and simulation(sometimes) is a new, very potent discovery tool. And a lot of this is at the commercial level, and while more r&d could probably accelerate things, even staying at the current levels,we'll see a lot happening. But i'm not sure how can we compare what's next to what was before? what can compete with 0 infant mortality and nuclear weapons ? let's say we cured cancer, is it enough? Maybe not. Maybe a fully automated world can ? maybe. Naturally that's far harder than some vaccines and a critical mass of a bunch of stuff. But we may be getting there.
- nostrademons 10y ago
  "Every person, the owner of a factory, able to profitably manufacture anything that they can design for a group of like-minded customers." That's the promise behind 3D printing + robotics + the Internet + drone delivery. "Live where your heart desires. Work on what your brain finds most interesting." Telecommuting + solar + mesh/satellite networking.
  - petra 10y ago
    The first thing: it's remind me of Youtube which can, theoretically, make everybody a global star, yet only a rare few make a living out of it. Really, a more economically realistic vision(depending on moore's law) would be high-quality VR for everybody, so everybody can be where their heart desires.
- marssaxman 10y ago
  I like your list, except for IOT, which is innovation with negative value.