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> This is mostly just wishful thinking on the part of the Remain side. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-leave-voters-remain-worst-event-20

by Aaargh20318 10y ago

> This is mostly just wishful thinking on the part of the Remain side. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-leave-voters-remain-worst-event-2016-eu-referendum-european-union-a7500571.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-leave-... "Four per cent of Leave voters polled said they thought Brexit was the worst thing to have happened this year," The result was 51% leave 49% remain, it would be the reverse if they could vote again today.

foldr 10y ago
That's assuming that no-one has shifted the other way: https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/opinion/saga/82093/more-over-50s-would-vote-brexit-now-june-poll https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/br...
- Aaargh20318 10y ago
  No, it's not. From the same article I linked before: "But a small number of Remain voters were apparently glad the vote did not go their way, with two per cent saying Brexit was in fact the best part of 2016" So 4% of 'leave' voters regret voting leave and 2% of 'remain' voters regret voting 'remain'. So in total it's about a 2% shift which would reverse the current result percentages.
  - Silhouette 10y ago
    So in total it's about a 2% shift which would reverse the current result percentages. No, it wouldn't. Your maths is off by about a factor of two, one way or another.
- DonaldFisk 10y ago
  I've never seen any detailed analysis of the reasons why people voted the way they did in the EU referendum, but I can think of one good reason why people who voted to remain might now think the UK should leave: because it was a democratic vote and they think its result should be acted upon, rather than ignored. That doesn't mean they regretted voting to remain in the EU.
  - Silhouette 10y ago
    The point you make is definitely valid. I personally know people who are likely to vote against the Lib Dems having previously supported them for exactly that reason. Regarding detailed analysis, you might find the Ashcroft polls interesting if you haven't seen them before. He did a write-up shortly after the referendum[1], primarily about who voted which way and why. Then there have been a couple more interesting ones just a few days before today's announcement as well[2,3], looking at current expectations regarding Brexit and more general voting intentions. Spoilers for [1]: The top three reasons identified for Leave voters were (most significant first) sovereignty, immigration, and lack of control over ever closer union and EU expansion in the future. The top three reasons identified for Remain voters were the economic risks of leaving, Single Market access without being in the Eurozone or Schengen area being seen as the best of both worlds, and the feeling of becoming more isolated if we left. Spoilers for [2]/[3]: Everything you've been assuming about the Tories being dominant in British politics today is true, except that you've probably underestimated just how utterly dominant they actually are and how unpopular both Labour and the Lib Dems are. It's going to be a long few weeks if you're not a blues fan. [1] http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/ http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-... [2] http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/04/new-political-landscape-britain-expects-brexit/ http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/04/new-political-landscape... [3] http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/04/more-from-my-brexit-research/ http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/04/more-from-my-brexit-res...
Silhouette 10y ago
As far as I'm aware, that relates to the only major poll since Brexit that suggested sufficient remorse on the Leave side to affect the referendum decision. That's why it was big news. Even so, it was still well within the margin of error. Your rounding was misleading: the referendum result was 51.9% to 48.1%, almost a 4% gap. It also still assumed, probably incorrectly, no remorse on the Remain side to cancel out the remorse from Leavers. But probably more significantly than any of that, I think every other poll I've seen from reasonably credible sources in recent months has pointed the other way. The one you're talking about appears to have been an anomaly.

foldr 10y ago

That's assuming that no-one has shifted the other way: https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/opinion/saga/82093/more-over-50s-would-vote-brexit-now-june-poll https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/br...

Aaargh20318 10y ago
No, it's not. From the same article I linked before: "But a small number of Remain voters were apparently glad the vote did not go their way, with two per cent saying Brexit was in fact the best part of 2016" So 4% of 'leave' voters regret voting leave and 2% of 'remain' voters regret voting 'remain'. So in total it's about a 2% shift which would reverse the current result percentages.
- Silhouette 10y ago
  So in total it's about a 2% shift which would reverse the current result percentages. No, it wouldn't. Your maths is off by about a factor of two, one way or another.
DonaldFisk 10y ago
I've never seen any detailed analysis of the reasons why people voted the way they did in the EU referendum, but I can think of one good reason why people who voted to remain might now think the UK should leave: because it was a democratic vote and they think its result should be acted upon, rather than ignored. That doesn't mean they regretted voting to remain in the EU.
- Silhouette 10y ago
  The point you make is definitely valid. I personally know people who are likely to vote against the Lib Dems having previously supported them for exactly that reason. Regarding detailed analysis, you might find the Ashcroft polls interesting if you haven't seen them before. He did a write-up shortly after the referendum[1], primarily about who voted which way and why. Then there have been a couple more interesting ones just a few days before today's announcement as well[2,3], looking at current expectations regarding Brexit and more general voting intentions. Spoilers for [1]: The top three reasons identified for Leave voters were (most significant first) sovereignty, immigration, and lack of control over ever closer union and EU expansion in the future. The top three reasons identified for Remain voters were the economic risks of leaving, Single Market access without being in the Eurozone or Schengen area being seen as the best of both worlds, and the feeling of becoming more isolated if we left. Spoilers for [2]/[3]: Everything you've been assuming about the Tories being dominant in British politics today is true, except that you've probably underestimated just how utterly dominant they actually are and how unpopular both Labour and the Lib Dems are. It's going to be a long few weeks if you're not a blues fan. [1] http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/ http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-... [2] http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/04/new-political-landscape-britain-expects-brexit/ http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/04/new-political-landscape... [3] http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/04/more-from-my-brexit-research/ http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/04/more-from-my-brexit-res...

Silhouette 10y ago

As far as I'm aware, that relates to the only major poll since Brexit that suggested sufficient remorse on the Leave side to affect the referendum decision. That's why it was big news. Even so, it was still well within the margin of error. Your rounding was misleading: the referendum result was 51.9% to 48.1%, almost a 4% gap. It also still assumed, probably incorrectly, no remorse on the Remain side to cancel out the remorse from Leavers. But probably more significantly than any of that, I think every other poll I've seen from reasonably credible sources in recent months has pointed the other way. The one you're talking about appears to have been an anomaly.