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Sure, but many who voted never expected them to actually win and saw it as a protest vote. A lot of people claimed they regretted voting brexit after it became

by Aaargh20318 10y ago

Sure, but many who voted never expected them to actually win and saw it as a protest vote. A lot of people claimed they regretted voting brexit after it became clear the brexit camp actually won. Now brexit has been initiated and it's becoming clear what the consequences are many more people are getting cold feet.

Silhouette 10y ago
A lot of people claimed they regretted voting brexit after it became clear the brexit camp actually won. This is mostly just wishful thinking on the part of the Remain side. Opinion polls have pretty consistently shown very little change in overall sentiment on Brexit. In many cases they seem to have observed marginally more regret among Leave voters than Remain voters, but the numbers were small enough in both cases that it probably wouldn't have affected the referendum result itself, and surely far too small to have much effect on a general election result.
- Aaargh20318 10y ago
  > This is mostly just wishful thinking on the part of the Remain side. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-leave-voters-remain-worst-event-2016-eu-referendum-european-union-a7500571.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-leave-... "Four per cent of Leave voters polled said they thought Brexit was the worst thing to have happened this year," The result was 51% leave 49% remain, it would be the reverse if they could vote again today.
  - foldr 10y ago
    That's assuming that no-one has shifted the other way: https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/opinion/saga/82093/more-over-50s-would-vote-brexit-now-june-poll https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/br...
    - Aaargh20318 10y ago
      No, it's not. From the same article I linked before: "But a small number of Remain voters were apparently glad the vote did not go their way, with two per cent saying Brexit was in fact the best part of 2016" So 4% of 'leave' voters regret voting leave and 2% of 'remain' voters regret voting 'remain'. So in total it's about a 2% shift which would reverse the current result percentages.
      - Silhouette 10y ago
        So in total it's about a 2% shift which would reverse the current result percentages. No, it wouldn't. Your maths is off by about a factor of two, one way or another.
    - DonaldFisk 10y ago
      I've never seen any detailed analysis of the reasons why people voted the way they did in the EU referendum, but I can think of one good reason why people who voted to remain might now think the UK should leave: because it was a democratic vote and they think its result should be acted upon, rather than ignored. That doesn't mean they regretted voting to remain in the EU.
      - Silhouette 10y ago
        The point you make is definitely valid. I personally know people who are likely to vote against the Lib Dems having previously supported them for exactly that reason. Regarding detailed analysis, you might find the Ashcroft polls interesting if you haven't seen them before. He did a write-up shortly after the referendum[1], primarily about who voted which way and why. Then there have been a couple more interesting ones just a few days before today's announcement as well[2,3], looking at current expectations regarding Brexit and more general voting intentions. Spoilers for [1]: The top three reasons identified for Leave voters were (most significant first) sovereignty, immigration, and lack of control over ever closer union and EU expansion in the future. The top three reasons identified for Remain voters were the economic risks of leaving, Single Market access without being in the Eurozone or Schengen area being seen as the best of both worlds, and the feeling of becoming more isolated if we left. Spoilers for [2]/[3]: Everything you've been assuming about the Tories being dominant in British politics today is true, except that you've probably underestimated just how utterly dominant they actually are and how unpopular both Labour and the Lib Dems are. It's going to be a long few weeks if you're not a blues fan. [1] http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/ http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-... [2] http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/04/new-political-landscape-britain-expects-brexit/ http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/04/new-political-landscape... [3] http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/04/more-from-my-brexit-research/ http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/04/more-from-my-brexit-res...
  - Silhouette 10y ago
    As far as I'm aware, that relates to the only major poll since Brexit that suggested sufficient remorse on the Leave side to affect the referendum decision. That's why it was big news. Even so, it was still well within the margin of error. Your rounding was misleading: the referendum result was 51.9% to 48.1%, almost a 4% gap. It also still assumed, probably incorrectly, no remorse on the Remain side to cancel out the remorse from Leavers. But probably more significantly than any of that, I think every other poll I've seen from reasonably credible sources in recent months has pointed the other way. The one you're talking about appears to have been an anomaly.
- alkonaut 10y ago
  I always wondered how many realized that "leave" would mean the union is dissolved (The Kingdom, that is - not the European union), and of give those circumstances would rather have voted remain, to keep the UK intact?
  - Silhouette 10y ago
    I always wondered how many realized that "leave" would mean the union is dissolved Can you clarify what you meant here?
    - pjc50 10y ago
      Northern Ireland is dependent on having an open border with the Republic, and also has an agriculture-based economy. Some of the possible (likely?) Brexit outcomes mean a closed border with customs posts and the end of agricultural subsides or the ability to sell agricultural products cross-border. There is a clause in the Good Friday Agreement for referendums on Irish reunification: http://www.thejournal.ie/united-ireland-border-poll-3136932-Dec2016/ http://www.thejournal.ie/united-ireland-border-poll-3136932-...
      - Silhouette 10y ago
        I agree that the open border is important for those on both sides. Personally I was hoping that the political leaders of both the UK and EU would start the negotiations by aiming for common ground and establishing some good faith, and the Irish border would surely be one of the areas where everyone could agree a high degree of openness was in everyone's best interests. Alas, they seem to be doing the opposite so far, and now we have this new spanner in the works.
    - alkonaut 10y ago
      I meant the odds of Scotland or Northern Ireland leasing the UK may have been different than what the voters thought in the referendum. Or to put it differently: if there had been a third option in the referendum of "Leave, but only if it can be done while keeping the UK intact" how would that option have done in the referendum? (ignoring whether it would be practically possible to have that option).

Silhouette 10y ago

A lot of people claimed they regretted voting brexit after it became clear the brexit camp actually won. This is mostly just wishful thinking on the part of the Remain side. Opinion polls have pretty consistently shown very little change in overall sentiment on Brexit. In many cases they seem to have observed marginally more regret among Leave voters than Remain voters, but the numbers were small enough in both cases that it probably wouldn't have affected the referendum result itself, and surely far too small to have much effect on a general election result.

Aaargh20318 10y ago
> This is mostly just wishful thinking on the part of the Remain side. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-leave-voters-remain-worst-event-2016-eu-referendum-european-union-a7500571.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-leave-... "Four per cent of Leave voters polled said they thought Brexit was the worst thing to have happened this year," The result was 51% leave 49% remain, it would be the reverse if they could vote again today.
- foldr 10y ago
  That's assuming that no-one has shifted the other way: https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/opinion/saga/82093/more-over-50s-would-vote-brexit-now-june-poll https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/br...
  - Aaargh20318 10y ago
    No, it's not. From the same article I linked before: "But a small number of Remain voters were apparently glad the vote did not go their way, with two per cent saying Brexit was in fact the best part of 2016" So 4% of 'leave' voters regret voting leave and 2% of 'remain' voters regret voting 'remain'. So in total it's about a 2% shift which would reverse the current result percentages.
    - Silhouette 10y ago
      So in total it's about a 2% shift which would reverse the current result percentages. No, it wouldn't. Your maths is off by about a factor of two, one way or another.
  - DonaldFisk 10y ago
    I've never seen any detailed analysis of the reasons why people voted the way they did in the EU referendum, but I can think of one good reason why people who voted to remain might now think the UK should leave: because it was a democratic vote and they think its result should be acted upon, rather than ignored. That doesn't mean they regretted voting to remain in the EU.
    - Silhouette 10y ago
      The point you make is definitely valid. I personally know people who are likely to vote against the Lib Dems having previously supported them for exactly that reason. Regarding detailed analysis, you might find the Ashcroft polls interesting if you haven't seen them before. He did a write-up shortly after the referendum[1], primarily about who voted which way and why. Then there have been a couple more interesting ones just a few days before today's announcement as well[2,3], looking at current expectations regarding Brexit and more general voting intentions. Spoilers for [1]: The top three reasons identified for Leave voters were (most significant first) sovereignty, immigration, and lack of control over ever closer union and EU expansion in the future. The top three reasons identified for Remain voters were the economic risks of leaving, Single Market access without being in the Eurozone or Schengen area being seen as the best of both worlds, and the feeling of becoming more isolated if we left. Spoilers for [2]/[3]: Everything you've been assuming about the Tories being dominant in British politics today is true, except that you've probably underestimated just how utterly dominant they actually are and how unpopular both Labour and the Lib Dems are. It's going to be a long few weeks if you're not a blues fan. [1] http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/ http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-... [2] http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/04/new-political-landscape-britain-expects-brexit/ http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/04/new-political-landscape... [3] http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/04/more-from-my-brexit-research/ http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/04/more-from-my-brexit-res...
- Silhouette 10y ago
  As far as I'm aware, that relates to the only major poll since Brexit that suggested sufficient remorse on the Leave side to affect the referendum decision. That's why it was big news. Even so, it was still well within the margin of error. Your rounding was misleading: the referendum result was 51.9% to 48.1%, almost a 4% gap. It also still assumed, probably incorrectly, no remorse on the Remain side to cancel out the remorse from Leavers. But probably more significantly than any of that, I think every other poll I've seen from reasonably credible sources in recent months has pointed the other way. The one you're talking about appears to have been an anomaly.
alkonaut 10y ago
I always wondered how many realized that "leave" would mean the union is dissolved (The Kingdom, that is - not the European union), and of give those circumstances would rather have voted remain, to keep the UK intact?
- Silhouette 10y ago
  I always wondered how many realized that "leave" would mean the union is dissolved Can you clarify what you meant here?
  - pjc50 10y ago
    Northern Ireland is dependent on having an open border with the Republic, and also has an agriculture-based economy. Some of the possible (likely?) Brexit outcomes mean a closed border with customs posts and the end of agricultural subsides or the ability to sell agricultural products cross-border. There is a clause in the Good Friday Agreement for referendums on Irish reunification: http://www.thejournal.ie/united-ireland-border-poll-3136932-Dec2016/ http://www.thejournal.ie/united-ireland-border-poll-3136932-...
    - Silhouette 10y ago
      I agree that the open border is important for those on both sides. Personally I was hoping that the political leaders of both the UK and EU would start the negotiations by aiming for common ground and establishing some good faith, and the Irish border would surely be one of the areas where everyone could agree a high degree of openness was in everyone's best interests. Alas, they seem to be doing the opposite so far, and now we have this new spanner in the works.
  - alkonaut 10y ago
    I meant the odds of Scotland or Northern Ireland leasing the UK may have been different than what the voters thought in the referendum. Or to put it differently: if there had been a third option in the referendum of "Leave, but only if it can be done while keeping the UK intact" how would that option have done in the referendum? (ignoring whether it would be practically possible to have that option).