4 ms·

I guess I just don't understand the premise of these articles questioning why something has stopped growing as though growth is the natural state of an already

I guess I just don't understand the premise of these articles questioning why something has stopped growing as though growth is the natural state of an already large market. Is it a forgone conclusion that the core product is so appealing it should just keep growing forever until everyone is consuming it? Is it possible that no matter who is or was running Twitter that there would only ever be so many people who want to communicate in hashtags and 180 characters? That a large part of Twitter's growth trajectory was from novelty and network effects of semi-engaged users? That user engagement from tweeting has a shelf life on the scale of months to years and that attrition is/was inevitable no matter how many third party APIs and pink bows you wrap a tweet up in? I'm asking in earnest because I just don't understand why the simpler explanation is that tweeting will only ever appeal to so many people and that there is a middle ground between failure and dominating the world. Somehow the talk of CEOs and corporate visions overshadows the product itself--one that has barely changed since its inception--which to me seems like the obvious place to start questioning.

quickben 10y ago
It depends who you ask. As an example of sane analysis: I played WOW and Blizzard at one point said something to the extent of: we have 12.5 m players, we captured the entire market. Then, you have usually the pr/marketing types that go after: every human being on this planet can be our user. Which is delusional. Add to that the fact that most IPOs and VCs go after users and not much else (was it $20-$40 per user?), And you end up in the current state where everybody hopes so hard that it obscures judgement. So, your understanding is just fine. Things have limits and Twitter may be at it.
- FussyZeus 10y ago
  I'd like to add to this that it's incredibly sad/frustrating when a product like Twitter especially (Don't mean to pick on them but it's such a good example of this) is blown totally out of proportion in terms of what is should/could be a very straightforward, API heavy, (I think) nerd-centric product into some kind of bastardized Facebook with a character limit that is for some reason worked on by almost four thousand people. If Twitter had stuck to reasonable goals, kept the product more or less where it started and stuck to a small team, they'd be printing money. Now we never know if they're going to make it out of the year.
FussyZeus 10y ago
No one believes in infinite growth except Economists and VC Angel Investors.
- digi_owl 10y ago
  > Economists And given the power their theories and related models have in the political world, we should all be very very worried.
mathw 10y ago
Even if every single human on the planet had an account and actively used it I think they'd be questioning why Twitter wasn't growing any further.

quickben 10y ago

It depends who you ask. As an example of sane analysis: I played WOW and Blizzard at one point said something to the extent of: we have 12.5 m players, we captured the entire market. Then, you have usually the pr/marketing types that go after: every human being on this planet can be our user. Which is delusional. Add to that the fact that most IPOs and VCs go after users and not much else (was it $20-$40 per user?), And you end up in the current state where everybody hopes so hard that it obscures judgement. So, your understanding is just fine. Things have limits and Twitter may be at it.

FussyZeus 10y ago
I'd like to add to this that it's incredibly sad/frustrating when a product like Twitter especially (Don't mean to pick on them but it's such a good example of this) is blown totally out of proportion in terms of what is should/could be a very straightforward, API heavy, (I think) nerd-centric product into some kind of bastardized Facebook with a character limit that is for some reason worked on by almost four thousand people. If Twitter had stuck to reasonable goals, kept the product more or less where it started and stuck to a small team, they'd be printing money. Now we never know if they're going to make it out of the year.

FussyZeus 10y ago

No one believes in infinite growth except Economists and VC Angel Investors.

digi_owl 10y ago
> Economists And given the power their theories and related models have in the political world, we should all be very very worried.

mathw 10y ago

Even if every single human on the planet had an account and actively used it I think they'd be questioning why Twitter wasn't growing any further.