Yes. Ugh. You are right. I treat P(evidence | null hypothesis) equivalent to P(null hypothesis | data). When it should be P(evidence | null hypothesis) = P(nu

Yes. Ugh. You are right. I treat P(evidence | null hypothesis) equivalent to P(null hypothesis | data). When it should be P(evidence | null hypothesis) = P(null hypothesis | evidence) * P (evidence) / P (null hypothesis) As we don't know either of those extra terms we can't determine P(null hypothesis | evidence). Thanks. Interestingly wikipedia notes that P(Reject H | H) = pre-defined threshold for rejecting H [1] [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P-value https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P-value