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...as best I can tell, you have still swapped them? It sounds like you're still talking about P(null hypothesis|evidence), whereas p-values are about P(evidenc
by Sniffnoy 10y ago
...as best I can tell, you have still swapped them? It sounds like you're still talking about P(null hypothesis|evidence), whereas p-values are about P(evidence|null hypothesis). (Well, not quite the latter but something like it.)
- acover 10y agoYes. Ugh. You are right. I treat P(evidence | null hypothesis) equivalent to P(null hypothesis | data). When it should be P(evidence | null hypothesis) = P(null hypothesis | evidence) * P (evidence) / P (null hypothesis) As we don't know either of those extra terms we can't determine P(null hypothesis | evidence). Thanks. Interestingly wikipedia notes that P(Reject H | H) = pre-defined threshold for rejecting H [1] [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P-value https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P-value