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I played a game of Monopoly where I started with a roll of 12. There was a 97% chance I correctly rejected the hypothesis that the dice were fair. Maybe this is

I played a game of Monopoly where I started with a roll of 12. There was a 97% chance I correctly rejected the hypothesis that the dice were fair. Maybe this is true in some sense? But it's still somewhere between misleading and nonsensical to say.

acover 9y ago
Yes, I agree that p-value tests have flaws. If you look at the data to determine your hypothesis it's easy to overfit. Bayes factor appear to solve this issue. I disagree that this is a basic education issue. It is a lack of agreement among scientists as to what statistical analysis is appropriate.
- Almaviva 9y ago
  "So it’s 99.5% that it occurred due to warming over the industrial era" There are at least a couple of statistical fallacies in this conclusion. And there isn't a lack of agreement about that. One problem with p-value tests is precisely that people misunderstand what the p-value means, which is where basic education comes in. It could save people from believing a lot of things they shouldn't. (Like many health and fitness crazes over the last generation, for instance) Or at the very least, we could train science journalists.
  - acover 9y ago
    Do you agree to the statement "so it's 99.5% that we correctly reject the hypothesis it occurred without warming over the industrial era"?
    - mnarayan01 9y ago
      I think you're mainly correct. The main issue is that there's an implied "given that the model from http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v10/n2/full/ngeo2863.html http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v10/n2/full/ngeo2863.html is 'perfect' (at least for this case)". Since it seems unlikely that the model is perfect, the numbers they give are almost certainly inflated.
      - acover 9y ago
        Nope. I'm totally wrong.
drt1245 9y ago
I think a better analogy is that it's like having many pairs of dice, and rolling each pair in turn until you get a roll of 12. Then concluding "this particular pair of dice must be loaded". Presumably, the researchers did not select rivers at random to study, they selected this river in particular because of the changes it is undergoing.
gertef 9y ago
Your second sentence should be in quotation marks to clarify that your comment is debunking it.

acover 9y ago

Yes, I agree that p-value tests have flaws. If you look at the data to determine your hypothesis it's easy to overfit. Bayes factor appear to solve this issue. I disagree that this is a basic education issue. It is a lack of agreement among scientists as to what statistical analysis is appropriate.

Almaviva 9y ago
"So it’s 99.5% that it occurred due to warming over the industrial era" There are at least a couple of statistical fallacies in this conclusion. And there isn't a lack of agreement about that. One problem with p-value tests is precisely that people misunderstand what the p-value means, which is where basic education comes in. It could save people from believing a lot of things they shouldn't. (Like many health and fitness crazes over the last generation, for instance) Or at the very least, we could train science journalists.
- acover 9y ago
  Do you agree to the statement "so it's 99.5% that we correctly reject the hypothesis it occurred without warming over the industrial era"?
  - mnarayan01 9y ago
    I think you're mainly correct. The main issue is that there's an implied "given that the model from http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v10/n2/full/ngeo2863.html http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v10/n2/full/ngeo2863.html is 'perfect' (at least for this case)". Since it seems unlikely that the model is perfect, the numbers they give are almost certainly inflated.
    - acover 9y ago
      Nope. I'm totally wrong.

drt1245 9y ago

I think a better analogy is that it's like having many pairs of dice, and rolling each pair in turn until you get a roll of 12. Then concluding "this particular pair of dice must be loaded". Presumably, the researchers did not select rivers at random to study, they selected this river in particular because of the changes it is undergoing.

gertef 9y ago

Your second sentence should be in quotation marks to clarify that your comment is debunking it.