Most people intuitively know this. But sometimes it takes 10 years or even decades to climb a hill, and the probability of picking a random spot in a valley or

Most people intuitively know this. But sometimes it takes 10 years or even decades to climb a hill, and the probability of picking a random spot in a valley or on a plateau is high. People are just risk-averse. And I think most winners win not because of this strategy, but because they can climb hills much faster than others, thus have a higher rate to try new spots.