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Nice comparison. I'm also familiar with "70% solution". One thing to add: officers, and hopefully business leaders, are taught how to build a theoretical list o

Nice comparison. I'm also familiar with "70% solution". One thing to add: officers, and hopefully business leaders, are taught how to build a theoretical list of what approximately 100% of the information, questions and answers might be...That way you know what 70% is in reference to. This is taught and one can easily memorize the checklists of decision making questions (it's a mnemonic device). To see why this matters imagine: Are we looking for 70% out of 5 questions? or 70% of 10 questions we have? If you think you only need to answer 5 questions before making a decision and answer 4. That's 80% and you would go...But if there are 10 questions to ideally check off before deciding and you only answer 4, that's way too low and dangerous. This is dangerous in the military and in startup land. Knowing the full list of questions to ask is more important than knowing the answers. Lastly, both Amazon and the military have huge structures, plans and support teams in place to encourage 70% as an OK threshold. Imagine if you have air support you can call in the marines should things go wrong, or you have your parents couch to crash on if your startup fails, those things would help a person be comfortable going on only 70% of the information.

JacobJans 9y ago
> Imagine if you have air support you can call in the marines should things go wrong, or you have your parents couch to crash on if your startup fails, those things would help a person be comfortable going on only 70% of the information. I would extend this to say that 50% of the knowledge needed for making a decision is understanding the downsides / risks of moving forward. For example, if you know you'll be OK if your fail, it is much easier to say yes to a big choice. However, if you're risking homelessnes, then it's probably better to find a different option. Even in less extreme scenarios, minor decisions I make are often based on understanding the risks, more than understanding the upsides. Maybe it is too conservative of an approach, but it is (unfortunately) based on experience.
SquirrelOnFire 9y ago
Mind sharing the list/mnemonic?
maroonblazer 9y ago
>But if there are 10 questions to ideally check off before deciding and you only answer 4, that's way too low and dangerous. Unless the time required to answer those 6 questions is enough time for a competitor to take your place...? Which is the better move? Do you gamble by waiting and hope they guess wrong, thus giving you more information that might help answer your 6 questions? Or do you roll the dice and make the best decision you can given everything you know?

JacobJans 9y ago

> Imagine if you have air support you can call in the marines should things go wrong, or you have your parents couch to crash on if your startup fails, those things would help a person be comfortable going on only 70% of the information. I would extend this to say that 50% of the knowledge needed for making a decision is understanding the downsides / risks of moving forward. For example, if you know you'll be OK if your fail, it is much easier to say yes to a big choice. However, if you're risking homelessnes, then it's probably better to find a different option. Even in less extreme scenarios, minor decisions I make are often based on understanding the risks, more than understanding the upsides. Maybe it is too conservative of an approach, but it is (unfortunately) based on experience.

SquirrelOnFire 9y ago

Mind sharing the list/mnemonic?

maroonblazer 9y ago

>But if there are 10 questions to ideally check off before deciding and you only answer 4, that's way too low and dangerous. Unless the time required to answer those 6 questions is enough time for a competitor to take your place...? Which is the better move? Do you gamble by waiting and hope they guess wrong, thus giving you more information that might help answer your 6 questions? Or do you roll the dice and make the best decision you can given everything you know?