4 ms·

> What are the odds of becoming a billionaire? And how does someone tilt those odds in their favor? Becoming a billionaire will rarely be the result of one luc

by jinjin2 10y ago

> What are the odds of becoming a billionaire? And how does someone tilt those odds in their favor? Becoming a billionaire will rarely be the result of one lucky decision, but rather the result of thousands of individual decision where a larger than average number of them turn out to be "lucky". I would think that the way to tilt the odds in your favor would be to study and listen to those who have successfully done this, and see if you can get some hints to how they made all these decisions.

cwyers 10y ago
But you can't just study what the successful people have done, you have to study what actually makes them different from everyone else. Think of it as a Type I error: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_I_and_type_II_errors https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_I_and_type_II_errors Let's say you interview 10 billionaires and 9 say they did X. Does X increase the likelihood of being a billionaire? You don't know until you look at the entire population of people TRYING to be billionaires. If X occurs in 90% of the billionaire population but 99% of the non-billionaire strivers population, then what you conclude is that in fact NOT doing X makes you more likely to succeed.* You can't study what makes you successful without including people who aren't successful. * Yes I know that the difference between 90% and 99% is hard if not impossible to measure in a sample of 10.
- WalterBright 10y ago
  > what actually makes them different from everyone else They don't suffer from "I cannot succeed so why bother trying."
  - cwyers 10y ago
    That's a bit of a strawman here, no? I'm saying "not all things that successful people do are the reasons they succeeded and successful people tend to suffer from hindsight and survivor bias so it's tricky to tell what led to their success." I said nothing about it being impossible or futile to try to succeed.
  - sshumaker 10y ago
    So do millions of other ambitious people. Many of us do achieve moderate success. Walter - do you think there's a vast gap in ability between you and Zuckerberg? Or better yet, between you and Dustin Moskovitz? (He's worth 10.4 billion). Or did they just also happen to be in the right place at the right time?
    - WalterBright 10y ago
      In the 70s I was with a company that designed SBCs. They had everything needed to be an Apple - talent, money, expertise. Everything but a Jobs who saw the opportunity. Hence I'm not a billionaire. In the years since, over and over and over, hindsight tells me I was in the right place at the right time, but was either too blind to see the opportunity or too chicken to take the risk. It's a running joke in my family. Ironically, the ventures I have been successful at were all pooh-poohed by everyone when I started them. If you can get up out of bed in the morning, have a brain that works, and live in a free country - you have all the luck you need to be successful.
      - jonmb 10y ago
        > If you can get up out of bed in the morning, have a brain that works, and live in a free country - you have all the luck you need to be successful. In general I agree with this, though of course there are exceptions. One of my brothers had a mental disability that required him to have 24/7 care. His main caretaker was my mother, and as a sibling I helped where I could. This was bad "luck" not only for my brother, but also my mother. She was always ambitious but my brother's disability needs took over most of her time and energy, leaving her with very little to pursue any financial/career success. Anyway, that's just one example. I think there are many clear paths in the U.S. to becoming a millionaire. Most U.S. citizens can pick up a career guide and learn about high-paying careers and what it takes to get into it. I did this with becoming a software engineer. Then it was just a matter of following the well-beaten path. Go to school -> get computer science degree -> take up one of the many opportunities -> properly manage finances and save/invest. Of course, this all requires some degree of luck. I was born a white male in America. This alone put me off to a great advantage over someone born in a poor corrupt country. I haven't had any known health or genetic issues, which is another fortunate circumstance. Like you said, as long as you have a reasonable/average amount of health, then there are a lot of opportunities. As individuals we just need the courage and be willing to put in the work to make it happen. But let's never get too full of ourselves, because there is luck involved with any success.

by jinjin2 10y ago

cwyers 10y ago

But you can't just study what the successful people have done, you have to study what actually makes them different from everyone else. Think of it as a Type I error: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_I_and_type_II_errors https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_I_and_type_II_errors Let's say you interview 10 billionaires and 9 say they did X. Does X increase the likelihood of being a billionaire? You don't know until you look at the entire population of people TRYING to be billionaires. If X occurs in 90% of the billionaire population but 99% of the non-billionaire strivers population, then what you conclude is that in fact NOT doing X makes you more likely to succeed.* You can't study what makes you successful without including people who aren't successful. * Yes I know that the difference between 90% and 99% is hard if not impossible to measure in a sample of 10.

WalterBright 10y ago
> what actually makes them different from everyone else They don't suffer from "I cannot succeed so why bother trying."
- cwyers 10y ago
  That's a bit of a strawman here, no? I'm saying "not all things that successful people do are the reasons they succeeded and successful people tend to suffer from hindsight and survivor bias so it's tricky to tell what led to their success." I said nothing about it being impossible or futile to try to succeed.
- sshumaker 10y ago
  So do millions of other ambitious people. Many of us do achieve moderate success. Walter - do you think there's a vast gap in ability between you and Zuckerberg? Or better yet, between you and Dustin Moskovitz? (He's worth 10.4 billion). Or did they just also happen to be in the right place at the right time?
  - WalterBright 10y ago
    In the 70s I was with a company that designed SBCs. They had everything needed to be an Apple - talent, money, expertise. Everything but a Jobs who saw the opportunity. Hence I'm not a billionaire. In the years since, over and over and over, hindsight tells me I was in the right place at the right time, but was either too blind to see the opportunity or too chicken to take the risk. It's a running joke in my family. Ironically, the ventures I have been successful at were all pooh-poohed by everyone when I started them. If you can get up out of bed in the morning, have a brain that works, and live in a free country - you have all the luck you need to be successful.
    - jonmb 10y ago
      > If you can get up out of bed in the morning, have a brain that works, and live in a free country - you have all the luck you need to be successful. In general I agree with this, though of course there are exceptions. One of my brothers had a mental disability that required him to have 24/7 care. His main caretaker was my mother, and as a sibling I helped where I could. This was bad "luck" not only for my brother, but also my mother. She was always ambitious but my brother's disability needs took over most of her time and energy, leaving her with very little to pursue any financial/career success. Anyway, that's just one example. I think there are many clear paths in the U.S. to becoming a millionaire. Most U.S. citizens can pick up a career guide and learn about high-paying careers and what it takes to get into it. I did this with becoming a software engineer. Then it was just a matter of following the well-beaten path. Go to school -> get computer science degree -> take up one of the many opportunities -> properly manage finances and save/invest. Of course, this all requires some degree of luck. I was born a white male in America. This alone put me off to a great advantage over someone born in a poor corrupt country. I haven't had any known health or genetic issues, which is another fortunate circumstance. Like you said, as long as you have a reasonable/average amount of health, then there are a lot of opportunities. As individuals we just need the courage and be willing to put in the work to make it happen. But let's never get too full of ourselves, because there is luck involved with any success.