The difference here is my when approached well language. When good angel investors report their #s, e.g. Brad Feld, Fred Wilson, etc. they say roughly 1/3 retur

The difference here is my when approached well language. When good angel investors report their #s, e.g. Brad Feld, Fred Wilson, etc. they say roughly 1/3 return nothing, 1/3 return something and 1/3 are successful to some degree. That's the 10-40% I'm talking about. If you take the universe of all entrepreneurs, then yeah, it's super small, and looks like a black swan event from the outside. But that's sort of the point of the black swan theory--in the right context the black swan isn't nearly as rare. The context I'm talking about is entrepreneurs who are approaching it well. I know that is nebulous and I'm not defining it well, but roughly the type of people those really early stage angel investors would invest in.