4 ms·
I agree that random walks are the most sensible way to model the financial markets, IMO. Anyone telling you otherwise you should be suspicious of (are they can
by VHRanger 10y ago
I agree that random walks are the most sensible way to model the financial markets, IMO. Anyone telling you otherwise you should be suspicious of (are they can beat the market?) Especially now with the mountain of evidence that pretty much no one can consistently beat a good market index.
- lost953 10y agoThe only issue with that is there are a few groups that have consistently beat the market over time, so perhaps its more pseudorandom than we think. One example might be the Renaissance Medallion Fund.
- VHRanger 10y agoRight, and I generally respect Renaissance. I think people who actually can beat the market fall into the general category of "knows something others don't". Renaissance probably is one of the very few firms that could qualify as that on purely technocratic means (instead of the usual, which is shades of grey in what's really insider trading). The other category would be simply HFT, but I'm not sure how profitable that is at this point, though. Most of the people who seem to beat the market, though, are generally just happy benefactors of survival bias (eg. the 10000 monkeys on typewrites effect)