6 ms·

Is Silicon Valley Dead?

52 points by ssclafani 16y ago

rbranson 16y ago
It's funny, you read blog posts like this, and then you hear people like Richard Florida talk about how the future is concentration of knowledge, not distribution. http://www.theatlantic.com/special-report/the-future-of-the-city/archive/2010/05/the-path-to-recovery/56393/ http://www.theatlantic.com/special-report/the-future-of-the-... So who's right?
- danielnicollet 16y ago
  I don't think there is necessarily a contradiction here. The article doesn't say that knowledge is being distributed, rather that the creative entrepreneurial mindset of the Valley is being distributed. I have worked in software startups in the Valley, the UK, France, and Oregon for the past 15 years. I must say I would agree. But I think the author is exaggerating the adverse competitive effect on the Valley the emergence of new tech centers is having. I would like to see him give us some real evidence that the Valey is suffering from it. I doubt it is just yet. There is plenty of growth potential to go around for now...
mikeryan 16y ago
3 words Sand Hill Road.
- mixmax 16y ago
  One of the points of the article was that entrepreneurs don't need VC since it's become so much cheaper to do startups. Thus Sand Hill Road isn't as important as it was.
  - mikeryan 16y ago
    No he said its easier to get to market without VC it removes VC's from "early rounds". The need for VC to grow is still going to be needed for the vast majority of new businesses. "This effectively removes VC’s from the equation at these early rounds and turns things over to angel investors" Even then the point still stands even angel money is still easier to get in Silicon Valley.
    - enjo 16y ago
      Those angels and Sand Hill VC's frequently invest outside of the valley tho.
  - hga 16y ago
    Unfortunately, this is only true if you rather narrowly limit the domain(s) of startups. I'm hope we haven't seen the end of e.g. neat foundational hardware tricks. Where's the next thing like the FPGA going to come from in a VC free world? (Heck, how about fast FPGAs (one company that I know of is working on them with an async core).)
  - mkramlich 16y ago
    I don't think you need Sand Hill VC if you're making a web SaaS startup. But big money is still useful and often necessary to get other types of startups off the ground or scale up, in areas like green tech, transportation, biomed, etc. For these, it prob still helps to be near high concentrations of VC. For a web SaaS, sure you can be in the middle of Idaho or Kansas.
- tomjen3 16y ago
  I can't imagine any decent VC who wouldn't invest in the next big thing because it wasn't located in Silicon Valley. So that would be a useful filter, and if at some later point you do need VC then you can always take a plane trip.
wooster 16y ago
Everybody says that the big draw to San Francisco is the weather. True, it can be pretty nice at times. But it can also be pretty miserable. I tuned out a bit after reading this. San Francisco has terrible weather compared to Silicon Valley, and someone who doesn't know the distinction between the two cannot, in my opinion, be taken seriously when sounding the death knell of the entire region. Paul Graham said it best, “Silicon Valley is soul-crushing suburban sprawl.” I lived in Silicon Valley for 7 years and didn't find it to be particularly soul-crushing. It's a nice place to spend some time. It's a very nice place to raise a family, if you have one (I don't). It's great that startups are springing up all over the world, but that doesn't mean Silicon Valley is dead. Silicon Valley doesn't have to lose for others to succeed.
- ardit33 16y ago
  oh, yeah. Well I live currently in Mountain View, and I find one of the most boring places in earth (SunnyVale and Cupertino are worse), if you are a single guy. Just saying. The 20s are ment to have fun, get laid, drink booze, write some code, then go out again. You wont be 20some again, it is a once in a lifetime opportunity to enjoy life (and start something at the same time). In here you are forced to live a suburbian boring life, even though you don't have kids. If you are married and have kids, you probably don't have any time anyway, so boring is ok. Everytime I go to work, I always think: Sigh, this place has such a great weather, but unfortunately it is wasted with this boring sprawling burbs.
  - enjo 16y ago
    You'll be shocked when you turn 30 that you can do all of those things in your 30's (and I suspect your 40's, 50's, and on...) :)
    - sandGorgon 16y ago
      thank you!
  - houseabsolute 16y ago
    It is what you make it. I know plenty of people in the area who seem to have a good amount of fun. But it's always possible to go live in the city if you find the hard life too difficult to find in the valley. But an attitude that dwells on thoughts like ". . . but unfortunately it is wasted with this boring sprawling burbs" could probably suck the life right out of almost any experience.
sabat 16y ago
No.
natch 16y ago
I can't figure out if this guy is an ignorant clown, a troll, or both. Ridiculous arguments, like the one where he says startups don't get any special advantage from the weather. Just because you're slaving away in a cubicle, doesn't mean your family won't enjoy the weather... and the great traffic on gorgeous highway 280... and the low crime rate... and the great schools... and Fry's... and San Francisco... etc., etc.
- hga 16y ago
  I always heard that one of the great advantages of the weather is that when you exit your cubicle it's likely to be good (see rmundo's comment), which is something I can assure you is not true of Boston (year around, at least). In many parts of the country you have to plan your activities around the weather, at least for parts of the year; I gather that's so much the case for Silicon Valley.
w33dkid 16y ago
All these "is Foo dead?" kind of topics are made to draw more attention than the usual, even though they don't make sense or matter much in the context of _now_
jasonlbaptiste 16y ago
This is just a horrible article where the author has no first hand clue of what he's talking about. other startup communities can still thrive without the valley dying. If anything that means the valley has succeeded. I want to see the essence of the valley spread elsewhere. So is there any way to prove that the valley is INDEPENDENTLY dying? Nope, because it's not.
rjett 16y ago
The way this article is written makes it sound like the author has recently bought into the Dave McClure pyramid scheme and he's supposed to tell 10 friends about the new, awesome system Dave has come up with. Disclaimer: I'm not from the Valley and I haven't ever heard of Dave McClure. He may very well be a reputable fellow in the angel investing world.
- pvdm 16y ago
  He uses swear words a lot :)
rmundo 16y ago
"The reality is that the weather makes no f-cking difference if you are slaving away 26 hours per day on your startup;" No, no, no, no. Good weather days should to be common enough that I won't feel deprived if I'm slaving in my office all day; it will be ready for me when I'm ready to take a break.
deleted 16y ago
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deleted 16y ago
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looprecur 16y ago
No. First of all, a lot of startups still need to raise money. It may be cheaper now than in 1998 but it's still not cheap to pay 2-6 people for 6-24 months. And getting users and customers does not necessarily equal profitability. What has actually happened in that there is a mismatch between investors and VC. In '98, many investors were MBAs who were willing to take VC investment on so-so terms because they wanted to eventually become VCs and they valued the connections. In '10, they want to take a lot less money (because they need less) on much better terms, and VC still hasn't adapted to that change. But I cannot understate the value of having seasoned, risk-accepting, wanting-to-change-the-world investors and entrepreneurs. Silicon Valley has a singular advantage in this regard.

52 points by ssclafani 16y ago

It's funny, you read blog posts like this, and then you hear people like Richard Florida talk about how the future is concentration of knowledge, not distribution. http://www.theatlantic.com/special-report/the-future-of-the-city/archive/2010/05/the-path-to-recovery/56393/ http://www.theatlantic.com/special-report/the-future-of-the-... So who's right?

danielnicollet 16y ago
I don't think there is necessarily a contradiction here. The article doesn't say that knowledge is being distributed, rather that the creative entrepreneurial mindset of the Valley is being distributed. I have worked in software startups in the Valley, the UK, France, and Oregon for the past 15 years. I must say I would agree. But I think the author is exaggerating the adverse competitive effect on the Valley the emergence of new tech centers is having. I would like to see him give us some real evidence that the Valey is suffering from it. I doubt it is just yet. There is plenty of growth potential to go around for now...

mikeryan 16y ago

3 words Sand Hill Road.

mixmax 16y ago
One of the points of the article was that entrepreneurs don't need VC since it's become so much cheaper to do startups. Thus Sand Hill Road isn't as important as it was.
- mikeryan 16y ago
  No he said its easier to get to market without VC it removes VC's from "early rounds". The need for VC to grow is still going to be needed for the vast majority of new businesses. "This effectively removes VC’s from the equation at these early rounds and turns things over to angel investors" Even then the point still stands even angel money is still easier to get in Silicon Valley.
  - enjo 16y ago
    Those angels and Sand Hill VC's frequently invest outside of the valley tho.
- hga 16y ago
  Unfortunately, this is only true if you rather narrowly limit the domain(s) of startups. I'm hope we haven't seen the end of e.g. neat foundational hardware tricks. Where's the next thing like the FPGA going to come from in a VC free world? (Heck, how about fast FPGAs (one company that I know of is working on them with an async core).)
- mkramlich 16y ago
  I don't think you need Sand Hill VC if you're making a web SaaS startup. But big money is still useful and often necessary to get other types of startups off the ground or scale up, in areas like green tech, transportation, biomed, etc. For these, it prob still helps to be near high concentrations of VC. For a web SaaS, sure you can be in the middle of Idaho or Kansas.
tomjen3 16y ago
I can't imagine any decent VC who wouldn't invest in the next big thing because it wasn't located in Silicon Valley. So that would be a useful filter, and if at some later point you do need VC then you can always take a plane trip.

wooster 16y ago

Everybody says that the big draw to San Francisco is the weather. True, it can be pretty nice at times. But it can also be pretty miserable. I tuned out a bit after reading this. San Francisco has terrible weather compared to Silicon Valley, and someone who doesn't know the distinction between the two cannot, in my opinion, be taken seriously when sounding the death knell of the entire region. Paul Graham said it best, “Silicon Valley is soul-crushing suburban sprawl.” I lived in Silicon Valley for 7 years and didn't find it to be particularly soul-crushing. It's a nice place to spend some time. It's a very nice place to raise a family, if you have one (I don't). It's great that startups are springing up all over the world, but that doesn't mean Silicon Valley is dead. Silicon Valley doesn't have to lose for others to succeed.

ardit33 16y ago
oh, yeah. Well I live currently in Mountain View, and I find one of the most boring places in earth (SunnyVale and Cupertino are worse), if you are a single guy. Just saying. The 20s are ment to have fun, get laid, drink booze, write some code, then go out again. You wont be 20some again, it is a once in a lifetime opportunity to enjoy life (and start something at the same time). In here you are forced to live a suburbian boring life, even though you don't have kids. If you are married and have kids, you probably don't have any time anyway, so boring is ok. Everytime I go to work, I always think: Sigh, this place has such a great weather, but unfortunately it is wasted with this boring sprawling burbs.
- enjo 16y ago
  You'll be shocked when you turn 30 that you can do all of those things in your 30's (and I suspect your 40's, 50's, and on...) :)
  - sandGorgon 16y ago
    thank you!
- houseabsolute 16y ago
  It is what you make it. I know plenty of people in the area who seem to have a good amount of fun. But it's always possible to go live in the city if you find the hard life too difficult to find in the valley. But an attitude that dwells on thoughts like ". . . but unfortunately it is wasted with this boring sprawling burbs" could probably suck the life right out of almost any experience.

sabat 16y ago

No.

natch 16y ago

I can't figure out if this guy is an ignorant clown, a troll, or both. Ridiculous arguments, like the one where he says startups don't get any special advantage from the weather. Just because you're slaving away in a cubicle, doesn't mean your family won't enjoy the weather... and the great traffic on gorgeous highway 280... and the low crime rate... and the great schools... and Fry's... and San Francisco... etc., etc.

hga 16y ago
I always heard that one of the great advantages of the weather is that when you exit your cubicle it's likely to be good (see rmundo's comment), which is something I can assure you is not true of Boston (year around, at least). In many parts of the country you have to plan your activities around the weather, at least for parts of the year; I gather that's so much the case for Silicon Valley.

w33dkid 16y ago

All these "is Foo dead?" kind of topics are made to draw more attention than the usual, even though they don't make sense or matter much in the context of _now_

jasonlbaptiste 16y ago

This is just a horrible article where the author has no first hand clue of what he's talking about. other startup communities can still thrive without the valley dying. If anything that means the valley has succeeded. I want to see the essence of the valley spread elsewhere. So is there any way to prove that the valley is INDEPENDENTLY dying? Nope, because it's not.

rjett 16y ago

The way this article is written makes it sound like the author has recently bought into the Dave McClure pyramid scheme and he's supposed to tell 10 friends about the new, awesome system Dave has come up with. Disclaimer: I'm not from the Valley and I haven't ever heard of Dave McClure. He may very well be a reputable fellow in the angel investing world.

pvdm 16y ago
He uses swear words a lot :)

rmundo 16y ago

"The reality is that the weather makes no f-cking difference if you are slaving away 26 hours per day on your startup;" No, no, no, no. Good weather days should to be common enough that I won't feel deprived if I'm slaving in my office all day; it will be ready for me when I'm ready to take a break.

deleted 16y ago

[deleted]

deleted 16y ago

[deleted]

looprecur 16y ago

No. First of all, a lot of startups still need to raise money. It may be cheaper now than in 1998 but it's still not cheap to pay 2-6 people for 6-24 months. And getting users and customers does not necessarily equal profitability. What has actually happened in that there is a mismatch between investors and VC. In '98, many investors were MBAs who were willing to take VC investment on so-so terms because they wanted to eventually become VCs and they valued the connections. In '10, they want to take a lot less money (because they need less) on much better terms, and VC still hasn't adapted to that change. But I cannot understate the value of having seasoned, risk-accepting, wanting-to-change-the-world investors and entrepreneurs. Silicon Valley has a singular advantage in this regard.