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That's exactly right about maintaining this level of technology. Looking around at most people I know and am surrounded by, there's just no way we could keep t

by Arizhel 10y ago

That's exactly right about maintaining this level of technology. Looking around at most people I know and am surrounded by, there's just no way we could keep the technology level we have now without such a large population: most people are just too inept. Kill off 99% and there won't be enough people to even keep the stuff we have working, let alone come up with anything new. Don't bet on governments having anything planned. That sounds like fantasy; just look at how governments actually behave in the real world: they're inept too.

erikpukinskis 10y ago
You don't need to keep all of it working. Most of it can fall apart. During the decline, important things will retract, move around, be protected. Look at what happened in the Holocaust. European Jewish culture wasn't wiped out. It was dealt a massive blow. Many important things were lost. But the community closed ranks and certain assets were protected too. This apocalyptic thinking is something you only do if you're so removed from violence that you have to imagine the whole world ending to conceive of it getting to you. People who actually deal with violence know they never get all of us. People are lost. It sucks. But we are resilient too. In a million people, there are always a few who are both smart and lucky and are able to reorganize reality ahead of the wave. That's why there are 6 billion of us. We survive.
- SamUK96 10y ago
  Little bit off-topic here, but there's almost 8 billion of us now. 7 billion was past a while ago and exponential growth continues.
- Arizhel 10y ago
  "European Jewish culture" is not a technology. It doesn't take a huge population base for a group of people to remember their roots and culture and save a lot of it. But most people are not technologists. Sure, there's a few smart people in a million, but that's not enough to maintain things: medical technology, transportation technology, computer technology, etc. Want a historical example? Look at the fall of the Roman Empire (and also older empires before them). They knew how to make concrete, huge buildings, aquaducts, plumbing, etc. It was all lost when the society collapsed, and that didn't involve killing off most of them, only having them give up on it and move away, and give up on the idea of specialization of labor. It took 1000 years or more to regain the level of technology they had, and really they never did figure out how to make concrete that good until modern times.
  - jfoutz 10y ago
    The Middle East, Iraq in particular might be a better example. It Was probably the garden of eden. Farming slowly increased the salt content, gradually destroying agriculture. People absolutely survive, but survival is far more work, and far less population is supported per acre. Not necessarily bad, but very different. And hard everyday.
- zipwitch 10y ago
  The problem with the "humanity will survive... somehow" is that without a great deal of work now in order to direct the future, we are abdicating our control of the how part. When the specifics are left up to circumstance, the details are all too likely to be horrific.
- jdhendrickson 10y ago
  Unfortunately your estimates and blind hope seem to me rather naive. At one point humanity was reduced to 40 breeding pairs, that is a bad flu away from extinction. An extinction event is not the same thing as a man made holocaust, it can be far more thorough. None the less, it seems more prudent to ameliorate the issue rather than just accept it as if it's inevitable.

by Arizhel 10y ago

erikpukinskis 10y ago

You don't need to keep all of it working. Most of it can fall apart. During the decline, important things will retract, move around, be protected. Look at what happened in the Holocaust. European Jewish culture wasn't wiped out. It was dealt a massive blow. Many important things were lost. But the community closed ranks and certain assets were protected too. This apocalyptic thinking is something you only do if you're so removed from violence that you have to imagine the whole world ending to conceive of it getting to you. People who actually deal with violence know they never get all of us. People are lost. It sucks. But we are resilient too. In a million people, there are always a few who are both smart and lucky and are able to reorganize reality ahead of the wave. That's why there are 6 billion of us. We survive.

SamUK96 10y ago
Little bit off-topic here, but there's almost 8 billion of us now. 7 billion was past a while ago and exponential growth continues.
Arizhel 10y ago
"European Jewish culture" is not a technology. It doesn't take a huge population base for a group of people to remember their roots and culture and save a lot of it. But most people are not technologists. Sure, there's a few smart people in a million, but that's not enough to maintain things: medical technology, transportation technology, computer technology, etc. Want a historical example? Look at the fall of the Roman Empire (and also older empires before them). They knew how to make concrete, huge buildings, aquaducts, plumbing, etc. It was all lost when the society collapsed, and that didn't involve killing off most of them, only having them give up on it and move away, and give up on the idea of specialization of labor. It took 1000 years or more to regain the level of technology they had, and really they never did figure out how to make concrete that good until modern times.
- jfoutz 10y ago
  The Middle East, Iraq in particular might be a better example. It Was probably the garden of eden. Farming slowly increased the salt content, gradually destroying agriculture. People absolutely survive, but survival is far more work, and far less population is supported per acre. Not necessarily bad, but very different. And hard everyday.
zipwitch 10y ago
The problem with the "humanity will survive... somehow" is that without a great deal of work now in order to direct the future, we are abdicating our control of the how part. When the specifics are left up to circumstance, the details are all too likely to be horrific.
jdhendrickson 10y ago
Unfortunately your estimates and blind hope seem to me rather naive. At one point humanity was reduced to 40 breeding pairs, that is a bad flu away from extinction. An extinction event is not the same thing as a man made holocaust, it can be far more thorough. None the less, it seems more prudent to ameliorate the issue rather than just accept it as if it's inevitable.