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If you ask someone to predict a coin toss, and use the methods we use today for interviews, you'll end up with a 50/50 chance at best. Yet some people guess the
by imh 10y ago
If you ask someone to predict a coin toss, and use the methods we use today for interviews, you'll end up with a 50/50 chance at best. Yet some people guess the coin toss correctly. It must be some unmeasured "gut" that's doing a good job for those people, right?
- uncensored 10y agoThere are a huge number of coin tosses to guess when evaluating someone for marriage potential. Maybe less for a job candidate. But the candidate is not the coin being tossed. We're talking about the ability to estimate probabilities for a whole range of stuff that combinedly give us a measure of confidence.
- projektir 10y agoI think there absolutely are people who can guess correctly, but how do you tell who they are and how many of them do you think are actually out there? I'd guess not many at all.