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> it was not predictable How do you explain the fact that this exact scenario was predicted in advance then? E.g.: https://news.usc.edu/86362/fukushima-disaste

• pella 10y ago
  it is better: Taleb (2009) https://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/taleb09/taleb09_index.html https://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/taleb09/taleb09_index.html TEN PRINCIPLES FOR A BLACK-SWAN-ROBUST WORLD "4. Do not let someone making an “incentive” bonus manage a nuclear plant – or your financial risks. Odds are he would cut every corner on safety to show “profits” while claiming to be “conservative”. Bonuses do not accommodate the hidden risks of blow-ups. It is the asymmetry of the bonus system that got us here. No incentives without disincentives: capitalism is about rewards and punishments, not just rewards."
• doall 10y ago
  The Tokyo District Public Prosecutors Office, including tsunami and earthquake experts had been investigating for years and concluded that it was not predictable. There may be different opinions, but so far no clear evidence shows that it was predictable.