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I have a really hard time believing that jobs will be scarce. There are always new things to build - always new things that people want. People will come up wit

by taysic 10y ago

I have a really hard time believing that jobs will be scarce. There are always new things to build - always new things that people want. People will come up with new products no one ever knew they needed but want - and need to hire people to come up with building something that can't be automated out of the box. I don't think there will be a problem for white collar workers or technical workers at all. Not sure about blue collar workers - I mean you always hear about how there is a shortage of people who are skilled in construction or whatnot. Will that be automated soon? I would be surprised. If not, perhaps some muscle-requiring jobs might even be more in demand.

mercer 10y ago
I agree that we'll probably find ways to keep ourselves busy (while I'm not sure if we should), but I think the worry about automation and job scarcity is still very real even if you just consider the temporary disruption of 'work as we know it'. Even if newer generations will be prepared for different types of labor, that still leaves lots of people with skills that are obsolete and the inability to adjust. And I think this problem is much bigger for lower-schooled work, which is exactly the kind of stuff that'll be automated first. I'm a well-educated programmer and many of my skills are general and abstract enough to adjust to a changing world with relatively little effort. But I suspect a truck driver without a degree will have significantly more trouble adjusting to a world where his job is automated away. While white-collar jobs fall somewhere in between, even there I've seen the negative effects of automation and changing requirements, and I think this is only now starting to become a real problem. I've met quite a number of people (even in the < 30 crowd) who are shockingly bad with computers, for example, and the only reasons I can think of that they get away with it is that 1) their 40+ manager/boss is is equally 'illiterate' so the whole company is 'old-fashioned' or 2) they cannot be easily fired (which I approve of, personally). The way I see it, many of these people are one crafty, ambitious, young tech-savvy employee, consultant, or competitor away from being obsoleted. There's just a lag between what is possible and what companies actually do.
- icantdrive55 10y ago
  "I'm a well-educated programmer and many of my skills are general and abstract enough to adjust to a changing world with relatively little effort." 1. A lot of us think we will be needed, or we will be able desirable to someone, or company. 2. I don't know your backround, but unless your education is in a field where there's a big barrier to entry (medicine always comes to mind); I think even the Ivy Leaguers will feel the rath of automation. 3. Willie Brown is actively wondering what San Franciso is going to do when this current tech boom ends. He doesn't want to add to the huge homeless problem that visible everywhere in that city. 4. I read somewhere that workforce participation is at historic lows, or a 30 year low. I don't know? It's the number of people who can work, but just gave up number. I've looked at the unemployment numbers, and they just don't feel right. I almost feel like they are lying? I know so many able bodied people who are barely getting by. They have multiple jobs because they are young, and have energy. Companies like Uber has no problem finding people who will go into debt in order to "get their side hussle on". It's all so easier when your on your 20-30's. You have a network of friends on for support/networking. I know too many forty year olds that are living off their savings. It's so much harder when you get older. 5. I really fear what will happen to the "well educated" white collar worker finds out their skills are just not needed, or they hit 45 on the tech sector? I honestly don't know what "well educated" is anymore. It makes a much sence as a "Professional Manager"? I can't imagine companies in the future will really care what university you went to. After all, they went to college too. They know what it's all about. 6. My point is we should all be a little concerned. I know well educated guys whom hit 45-50, and just arn't needed anymore. Some try to go into blue collar jobs, but they don't seem to last. (Try to stay somewhat fit. Blue collar work is usually physically demanding. Even working at Cost-co, or Wholefoods is standing on your feet all day long, and construction blue collar jobs--are a bitch on the body.) I have noticed White Collar workers usually come from supportive families, so they don't become homeless. But--many do. 7. I really don't want to debate anyone. I just don't see the availability of jobs like I did in the 90's, and that was during a ression. I do see a lot of cushy tech jobs that I doubt will be there in ten years. Why do I feel like we will soon be talking about the free food Google used to offer its employees? "Remember the good ole days?"
  - 10y ago

by taysic 10y ago

mercer 10y ago

I agree that we'll probably find ways to keep ourselves busy (while I'm not sure if we should), but I think the worry about automation and job scarcity is still very real even if you just consider the temporary disruption of 'work as we know it'. Even if newer generations will be prepared for different types of labor, that still leaves lots of people with skills that are obsolete and the inability to adjust. And I think this problem is much bigger for lower-schooled work, which is exactly the kind of stuff that'll be automated first. I'm a well-educated programmer and many of my skills are general and abstract enough to adjust to a changing world with relatively little effort. But I suspect a truck driver without a degree will have significantly more trouble adjusting to a world where his job is automated away. While white-collar jobs fall somewhere in between, even there I've seen the negative effects of automation and changing requirements, and I think this is only now starting to become a real problem. I've met quite a number of people (even in the < 30 crowd) who are shockingly bad with computers, for example, and the only reasons I can think of that they get away with it is that 1) their 40+ manager/boss is is equally 'illiterate' so the whole company is 'old-fashioned' or 2) they cannot be easily fired (which I approve of, personally). The way I see it, many of these people are one crafty, ambitious, young tech-savvy employee, consultant, or competitor away from being obsoleted. There's just a lag between what is possible and what companies actually do.

icantdrive55 10y ago
"I'm a well-educated programmer and many of my skills are general and abstract enough to adjust to a changing world with relatively little effort." 1. A lot of us think we will be needed, or we will be able desirable to someone, or company. 2. I don't know your backround, but unless your education is in a field where there's a big barrier to entry (medicine always comes to mind); I think even the Ivy Leaguers will feel the rath of automation. 3. Willie Brown is actively wondering what San Franciso is going to do when this current tech boom ends. He doesn't want to add to the huge homeless problem that visible everywhere in that city. 4. I read somewhere that workforce participation is at historic lows, or a 30 year low. I don't know? It's the number of people who can work, but just gave up number. I've looked at the unemployment numbers, and they just don't feel right. I almost feel like they are lying? I know so many able bodied people who are barely getting by. They have multiple jobs because they are young, and have energy. Companies like Uber has no problem finding people who will go into debt in order to "get their side hussle on". It's all so easier when your on your 20-30's. You have a network of friends on for support/networking. I know too many forty year olds that are living off their savings. It's so much harder when you get older. 5. I really fear what will happen to the "well educated" white collar worker finds out their skills are just not needed, or they hit 45 on the tech sector? I honestly don't know what "well educated" is anymore. It makes a much sence as a "Professional Manager"? I can't imagine companies in the future will really care what university you went to. After all, they went to college too. They know what it's all about. 6. My point is we should all be a little concerned. I know well educated guys whom hit 45-50, and just arn't needed anymore. Some try to go into blue collar jobs, but they don't seem to last. (Try to stay somewhat fit. Blue collar work is usually physically demanding. Even working at Cost-co, or Wholefoods is standing on your feet all day long, and construction blue collar jobs--are a bitch on the body.) I have noticed White Collar workers usually come from supportive families, so they don't become homeless. But--many do. 7. I really don't want to debate anyone. I just don't see the availability of jobs like I did in the 90's, and that was during a ression. I do see a lot of cushy tech jobs that I doubt will be there in ten years. Why do I feel like we will soon be talking about the free food Google used to offer its employees? "Remember the good ole days?"
- 10y ago