4 ms·
> Blindly charging ahead with the first idea that occurs to you, as an entrepreneur, is probably not going to work no matter how strongly you believe the world
by seppin 10y ago
> Blindly charging ahead with the first idea that occurs to you, as an entrepreneur, is probably not going to work no matter how strongly you believe the world will get there.
Statically, you're just as likely to be right with the first idea as the one you're sat on for months
- nostrademons 10y agoSure, but statistically, if each idea has a 10% chance of working, you're significantly more likely to have one good idea if you test 10 ideas (1 - 0.9^10 = 65%) than if you test one idea (10%). And even if you work really hard at that idea, so that its chance of success goes up to 20-30%, you still would be better with the 10 quick tests. In practice, that usually means do the minimum you can to verify the key assumptions of each idea, back out and try something different if any key assumption doesn't hold, and if you find something that has a good chance of working, stick with it.
- dwaltrip 10y agoI'm sorry, that sound a bit absurd to me. What did you mean? If you sit on an idea for months, then that means it has survived a a good deal of reasonability testing and careful analysis, as you have been mentally prodding and poking the idea for a while, and haven't found a good reason to abandon it yet. While the idea you just came up with has been through absolutely no deep analysis, by definition. The subconscious mind is incredibly powerful, but it needs time to do its work. Of course, slowly acquired self-delusion and emotional entanglement regarding the idea is a risk. But this varies significantly among people, can be somewhat defended against, and doesn't negate my main point.