4 ms·

Well... yeah. Miami isn't going to be around for all that much longer either. Large parts of the world are going to be inundated, flooded, or actually drowned.

by M_Grey 10y ago

Well... yeah. Miami isn't going to be around for all that much longer either. Large parts of the world are going to be inundated, flooded, or actually drowned. To be fair though, the fine distinction between "frequent flooding destroys everything," "Literally underwater all of the time," and "It's a salty swamp here now," might be lost on former residents. Some places will be able to adapt, because they have money and the right geological conditions, but plenty of others (Miami) would require... well... I can't even imagine.

pm90 10y ago
Hmm, what if someone could accurately predict what the shoreline would look like and then buy a whole swatch of cheap properties that will eventually be on the waterfront? A la Superman, where Lex tries to split the San Andreas fault...
- dogruck 10y ago
  If we could predict the changes, then we wouldn't be debating climate change.
- gwern 10y ago
  Discount rates and property taxes make it relatively infeasible to buy that land and turn a risk-adjusted profit - especially since the margin for error is so slim (a few hundred horizontal feet one way, your properties are a 100% loss, a few hundred feet the other way, you lose much of the waterfront premium). Compared to investing in a stock index at 5%+, the idea is nowhere near worthwhile; you need to find land which would at least double or triple in value just to try to profit at 10-20 years out, and even more if you are planning 20+ or taking into account the carrying costs & risk.
  - kmonsen 10y ago
    To be honest, I think it is fairly unpredictable what will happen with stock values if there is strong global warming. And if government breaks down having anything might not be worth much unless you have an army to defend it.
    - gwern 10y ago
      In the long run, equities have always outperformed real estate, regardless of climate or weather events: companies and peoples can move, pieces of land cannot. And 'Mad Max' scenarios are currently not projected to happen anytime remotely soon if ever.
      - M_Grey 10y ago
        To be fair, 'Mad Max' isn't something you project, it's an overly optimistic post-script to a total nuclear exchange. It may be that pressure from climate change and poor coping mechanisms on an international scale could lead to said nuclear exchange, although I certainly hope not.
- M_Grey 10y ago
  You'd have to not only predict the time-frame and the shoreline, you'd have to have a lot of faith in the economy and governments that will exist when that starts to go down in a serious way.
- earthtolazlo 10y ago
  Ocean levels will continue to rise for centuries. I don't think the timescales quite make sense from an investment perspective.
  - sxates 10y ago
    Right - nobody is going to want that ocean front property in 100 years knowing they'll be underwater themselves in the next 25.
Analemma_ 10y ago
Property values are still climbing in Miami because the market seems to think that the city will be bailed out by some colossally-expensive engineering project to fix the problem on the taxpayer's dime. Nobody knows what that is yet- the usual levees and canals won't work because Florida is a limestone sponge and the water just comes up through the ground if you try to dam it- but they assume there'll be something. Depressingly, the market is probably right. Abandoning Miami would mean admitting that global warming is real, and that's just not going to happen. Besides, "retreat" isn't in our vocabulary! `Murica!
- M_Grey 10y ago
  I don't think that saving Miama is really possible, it's facing too much from too many sides. I think the biggest issue is that people love living there, and they'll believe it's over after it's over. Of course, the first people to get the message will be those with some money and education, and their exist will tank that market. As for admitting anything, they'll just switch over to "It's not man-made!". There is no limit to the human capacity for self-delusion.
  - Analemma_ 10y ago
    > I don't think that saving Miami is really possible, it's facing too much from too many sides. I don't think it is either, but that doesn't mean we're not going to spend hundreds of billions of dollars trying.
    - M_Grey 10y ago
      Oh I see, yes I agree completely. We're going to exhaust resources in last-minute desperation, waste it in war and conflict, and then in the end maybe try to geoengineer out way out, which is one hell of a gamble if it's even plausible.
- yardie 10y ago
  Property values are going up in Miami because it's 50 years away problem in a 5-10 year world. Everyone is buying and selling and hoping they won't be the person left holding soggy property. The city is already planning for the floods. New construction has to shops and parking on the ground floor. 2nd and 3rd floor has to be planned to be street accessible. That means when the street is eventually filled in the 2nd floor becomes the ground floor. Now where they will get all that material to fill in the street is a good question.

by M_Grey 10y ago

pm90 10y ago

Hmm, what if someone could accurately predict what the shoreline would look like and then buy a whole swatch of cheap properties that will eventually be on the waterfront? A la Superman, where Lex tries to split the San Andreas fault...

dogruck 10y ago
If we could predict the changes, then we wouldn't be debating climate change.
gwern 10y ago
Discount rates and property taxes make it relatively infeasible to buy that land and turn a risk-adjusted profit - especially since the margin for error is so slim (a few hundred horizontal feet one way, your properties are a 100% loss, a few hundred feet the other way, you lose much of the waterfront premium). Compared to investing in a stock index at 5%+, the idea is nowhere near worthwhile; you need to find land which would at least double or triple in value just to try to profit at 10-20 years out, and even more if you are planning 20+ or taking into account the carrying costs & risk.
- kmonsen 10y ago
  To be honest, I think it is fairly unpredictable what will happen with stock values if there is strong global warming. And if government breaks down having anything might not be worth much unless you have an army to defend it.
  - gwern 10y ago
    In the long run, equities have always outperformed real estate, regardless of climate or weather events: companies and peoples can move, pieces of land cannot. And 'Mad Max' scenarios are currently not projected to happen anytime remotely soon if ever.
    - M_Grey 10y ago
      To be fair, 'Mad Max' isn't something you project, it's an overly optimistic post-script to a total nuclear exchange. It may be that pressure from climate change and poor coping mechanisms on an international scale could lead to said nuclear exchange, although I certainly hope not.
M_Grey 10y ago
You'd have to not only predict the time-frame and the shoreline, you'd have to have a lot of faith in the economy and governments that will exist when that starts to go down in a serious way.
earthtolazlo 10y ago
Ocean levels will continue to rise for centuries. I don't think the timescales quite make sense from an investment perspective.
- sxates 10y ago
  Right - nobody is going to want that ocean front property in 100 years knowing they'll be underwater themselves in the next 25.

Analemma_ 10y ago

Property values are still climbing in Miami because the market seems to think that the city will be bailed out by some colossally-expensive engineering project to fix the problem on the taxpayer's dime. Nobody knows what that is yet- the usual levees and canals won't work because Florida is a limestone sponge and the water just comes up through the ground if you try to dam it- but they assume there'll be something. Depressingly, the market is probably right. Abandoning Miami would mean admitting that global warming is real, and that's just not going to happen. Besides, "retreat" isn't in our vocabulary! `Murica!

M_Grey 10y ago
I don't think that saving Miama is really possible, it's facing too much from too many sides. I think the biggest issue is that people love living there, and they'll believe it's over after it's over. Of course, the first people to get the message will be those with some money and education, and their exist will tank that market. As for admitting anything, they'll just switch over to "It's not man-made!". There is no limit to the human capacity for self-delusion.
- Analemma_ 10y ago
  > I don't think that saving Miami is really possible, it's facing too much from too many sides. I don't think it is either, but that doesn't mean we're not going to spend hundreds of billions of dollars trying.
  - M_Grey 10y ago
    Oh I see, yes I agree completely. We're going to exhaust resources in last-minute desperation, waste it in war and conflict, and then in the end maybe try to geoengineer out way out, which is one hell of a gamble if it's even plausible.
yardie 10y ago
Property values are going up in Miami because it's 50 years away problem in a 5-10 year world. Everyone is buying and selling and hoping they won't be the person left holding soggy property. The city is already planning for the floods. New construction has to shops and parking on the ground floor. 2nd and 3rd floor has to be planned to be street accessible. That means when the street is eventually filled in the 2nd floor becomes the ground floor. Now where they will get all that material to fill in the street is a good question.