4 ms·

How many Americans does ISIS want to kill? How many would they kill if they weren't prevented from doing so?

tptacek 10y ago
I'm not sure it's reasonable to stipulate that the surveillance we conduct actually deters ISIS. I think the answer to your question is "statistically, not many". The Brits had special golf rules drawn up for playing through the Blitz. We need to grow up.
- leereeves 10y ago
  > I'm not sure it's reasonable to stipulate that the surveillance we conduct actually deters ISIS. I'd say its a reasonable assumption. ISIS's goal is to actually succeed, not to get caught by surveillance before an attack. > We need to grow up. And stop trying to prevent terrorism? That's not growing up. While the Brits were playing golf during the Blitz, they were also investing vast amounts of money and lives into shooting down German planes.
  - tptacek 10y ago
    The comparison you're drawing is between the RAF and the harassment of Muslims in the US. Lord only knows what the other leg of your Manhattan Project metaphor would be! later edit In case this actually needs to be said: in the course of prosecuting a war against terrorism (itself a spectacularly bad idea, lending itself as it does to a perpetual state of war), we've invaded and more or less conquered Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya, and are in what any reasonable person would call a state of war with Syria and Yemen. You can look at a map of west Asia to see what that adds up to.
    - leereeves 10y ago
      I'm not drawing a comparison to harassment of Muslims. I've had similar experiences and I'm not a Muslim and CBP would have no reason to believe I was. And I resent you trying to use claims of racism to derail a discussion about reasonable precautions.
      - tptacek 10y ago
        I think you might resent the story, which is about "claims of racism", and not so much this comment thread.
        leereeves 10y ago
        I'm used to people using incidents taken out of context to justify claims of racism. Sometimes, they don't even check the details, as when they pushed the story of an Olympian who was detained due to Trump's travel ban without realizing it happened under Obama.
    - leereeves 10y ago
      response to later edit We haven't conquered Libya. In fact, the Obama administration pulled out and left the country in chaos and more vulnerable than ever to terrorism. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-36013703 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-36013703
      - tptacek 10y ago
        And Montgomery's Market Garden operation failed, too. What's your point? Mine was simply that it's ridiculous to claim that the US has taken terrorism less seriously as a military objective than the UK took theirs.
        leereeves 10y ago
        > it's ridiculous to claim that the US has taken terrorism less seriously as a military objective than the UK took theirs Then what was the point of saying that the Brits had rules for golf during the Blitz?
        tptacek 10y ago
        Obviously, that regardless of what our military might be doing, our societal and public policy responses to this threat have been comparatively juvenile.
        leereeves 10y ago
        I agree with you about one thing. The war on terror is a mistake (or a plan to make money). "Terror" can't be fought by the military. Only "societal and public policy responses" can stop terrorism. What "mature" response are you suggesting?
    - ch4s3 10y ago
      Don't forget Somalia.
  - mhluongo 10y ago
    Not a great analogy. The threat of terrorism isn't on par with your country surviving constant air raids, and the benefit of shooting down a raiding plane is much more clear
ch4s3 10y ago
This is fear mongering and doesn't represent the real level of risk. Furthermore it doesn't add much to the discussion. Between bag checks and policing at stadiums, armored cockpit doors on planes, metal detectors, and descent passport checks backed by good intelligence most opportunities for foreign born terrorists evaporate. And practically it's impossible to stop lone, home grown terrorists when a rented van can be used as a weapon. So why search my phone?
- leereeves 10y ago
  It's not my intention to "fear monger". I intend only to point out that when some claim "terrorism isn't a serious problem" they're using statistics collected while we do everything we can to prevent it. No one is ever going to give the terrorists free reign to do what they want for a year so we can collect control data. So we can only speculate about the consequences of not doing all we can to prevent terror attacks.
  - throwaway9475 10y ago
    According to the Cato Institute [1], the probability of being involved in a terrorist attack by a foreign-born terrorist from 1975 to 2015 was 0.00003%, or 1/3,609,709. The probability of you being struck by lightning this year is 1/960,000. Terrorism ISN'T a serious problem, compared to homelessness, obesity and other health issues, lack of access to healthcare (see: obesity and other health issues), minority rights (especially for Muslims and Mexican immigrants), labor rights, poor public transportation, etc. It just isn't. God, if people cared 1/10th as much about some of these issues as they did about "being hard on terrorism", imagine how much we could get done. Instead we're groping ten-year-old boys at airports in the name of "safety". Edit: add source. [1] https://object.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/pa798_1_1.pdf https://object.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/pa798_...
    - leereeves 10y ago
      > The probability of you being struck by lightning this year is 1/960,000. And most people take precautions to avoid being hit by lightning. A one in a million risk of death is easily enough to inspire action to reduce the risk.
readhn 10y ago
I give you problem A that kills 500,000 of your people every year and problem B that kills <100 people every year. And half a trillion to solve this. Where and how will you spend your money? 95% on problem A and 5% on problem B? or 95% on problem B and 5% on problem A? Why are we not addressing the issues that hurt and effect our daily lives the most?
- leereeves 10y ago
  Depends how effective the investment in each will be.
  - readhn 10y ago
    i can tell you that your ROI (saved lives) on addressing homelessness and drug overdose will be a lot higher than chasing some boogeymen in the desert.
    - 0xfeba 10y ago
      > chasing some boogeymen in the desert. Whom we are chasing mostly because of the instability we caused in the region in the first place.
    - leereeves 10y ago
      > addressing homelessness and drug overdose That's been tried before with little success. Some people will choose to use drugs no matter what the government does. Some people will choose to be homeless. Some people are mentally ill and unable to take advantage of government programs. Some people just refuse help. What program would you suggest, that isn't being done, that would reduce homelessness or drug overdose?
      - maym86 10y ago
        http://www.npr.org/2015/12/10/459100751/utah-reduced-chronic-homelessness-by-91-percent-heres-how http://www.npr.org/2015/12/10/459100751/utah-reduced-chronic... Great success. Do some research. Spend effort expanding programs that work.

I'm not sure it's reasonable to stipulate that the surveillance we conduct actually deters ISIS. I think the answer to your question is "statistically, not many". The Brits had special golf rules drawn up for playing through the Blitz. We need to grow up.

leereeves 10y ago
> I'm not sure it's reasonable to stipulate that the surveillance we conduct actually deters ISIS. I'd say its a reasonable assumption. ISIS's goal is to actually succeed, not to get caught by surveillance before an attack. > We need to grow up. And stop trying to prevent terrorism? That's not growing up. While the Brits were playing golf during the Blitz, they were also investing vast amounts of money and lives into shooting down German planes.
- tptacek 10y ago
  The comparison you're drawing is between the RAF and the harassment of Muslims in the US. Lord only knows what the other leg of your Manhattan Project metaphor would be! later edit In case this actually needs to be said: in the course of prosecuting a war against terrorism (itself a spectacularly bad idea, lending itself as it does to a perpetual state of war), we've invaded and more or less conquered Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya, and are in what any reasonable person would call a state of war with Syria and Yemen. You can look at a map of west Asia to see what that adds up to.
  - leereeves 10y ago
    I'm not drawing a comparison to harassment of Muslims. I've had similar experiences and I'm not a Muslim and CBP would have no reason to believe I was. And I resent you trying to use claims of racism to derail a discussion about reasonable precautions.
    - tptacek 10y ago
      I think you might resent the story, which is about "claims of racism", and not so much this comment thread.
      - leereeves 10y ago
        I'm used to people using incidents taken out of context to justify claims of racism. Sometimes, they don't even check the details, as when they pushed the story of an Olympian who was detained due to Trump's travel ban without realizing it happened under Obama.
  - leereeves 10y ago
    response to later edit We haven't conquered Libya. In fact, the Obama administration pulled out and left the country in chaos and more vulnerable than ever to terrorism. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-36013703 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-36013703
    - tptacek 10y ago
      And Montgomery's Market Garden operation failed, too. What's your point? Mine was simply that it's ridiculous to claim that the US has taken terrorism less seriously as a military objective than the UK took theirs.
      - leereeves 10y ago
        > it's ridiculous to claim that the US has taken terrorism less seriously as a military objective than the UK took theirs Then what was the point of saying that the Brits had rules for golf during the Blitz?
        tptacek 10y ago
        Obviously, that regardless of what our military might be doing, our societal and public policy responses to this threat have been comparatively juvenile.
        leereeves 10y ago
        I agree with you about one thing. The war on terror is a mistake (or a plan to make money). "Terror" can't be fought by the military. Only "societal and public policy responses" can stop terrorism. What "mature" response are you suggesting?
  - ch4s3 10y ago
    Don't forget Somalia.
- mhluongo 10y ago
  Not a great analogy. The threat of terrorism isn't on par with your country surviving constant air raids, and the benefit of shooting down a raiding plane is much more clear

ch4s3 10y ago

This is fear mongering and doesn't represent the real level of risk. Furthermore it doesn't add much to the discussion. Between bag checks and policing at stadiums, armored cockpit doors on planes, metal detectors, and descent passport checks backed by good intelligence most opportunities for foreign born terrorists evaporate. And practically it's impossible to stop lone, home grown terrorists when a rented van can be used as a weapon. So why search my phone?

leereeves 10y ago
It's not my intention to "fear monger". I intend only to point out that when some claim "terrorism isn't a serious problem" they're using statistics collected while we do everything we can to prevent it. No one is ever going to give the terrorists free reign to do what they want for a year so we can collect control data. So we can only speculate about the consequences of not doing all we can to prevent terror attacks.
- throwaway9475 10y ago
  According to the Cato Institute [1], the probability of being involved in a terrorist attack by a foreign-born terrorist from 1975 to 2015 was 0.00003%, or 1/3,609,709. The probability of you being struck by lightning this year is 1/960,000. Terrorism ISN'T a serious problem, compared to homelessness, obesity and other health issues, lack of access to healthcare (see: obesity and other health issues), minority rights (especially for Muslims and Mexican immigrants), labor rights, poor public transportation, etc. It just isn't. God, if people cared 1/10th as much about some of these issues as they did about "being hard on terrorism", imagine how much we could get done. Instead we're groping ten-year-old boys at airports in the name of "safety". Edit: add source. [1] https://object.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/pa798_1_1.pdf https://object.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/pa798_...
  - leereeves 10y ago
    > The probability of you being struck by lightning this year is 1/960,000. And most people take precautions to avoid being hit by lightning. A one in a million risk of death is easily enough to inspire action to reduce the risk.

readhn 10y ago

I give you problem A that kills 500,000 of your people every year and problem B that kills <100 people every year. And half a trillion to solve this. Where and how will you spend your money? 95% on problem A and 5% on problem B? or 95% on problem B and 5% on problem A? Why are we not addressing the issues that hurt and effect our daily lives the most?

leereeves 10y ago
Depends how effective the investment in each will be.
- readhn 10y ago
  i can tell you that your ROI (saved lives) on addressing homelessness and drug overdose will be a lot higher than chasing some boogeymen in the desert.
  - 0xfeba 10y ago
    > chasing some boogeymen in the desert. Whom we are chasing mostly because of the instability we caused in the region in the first place.
  - leereeves 10y ago
    > addressing homelessness and drug overdose That's been tried before with little success. Some people will choose to use drugs no matter what the government does. Some people will choose to be homeless. Some people are mentally ill and unable to take advantage of government programs. Some people just refuse help. What program would you suggest, that isn't being done, that would reduce homelessness or drug overdose?
    - maym86 10y ago
      http://www.npr.org/2015/12/10/459100751/utah-reduced-chronic-homelessness-by-91-percent-heres-how http://www.npr.org/2015/12/10/459100751/utah-reduced-chronic... Great success. Do some research. Spend effort expanding programs that work.