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In my gut, I feel like the same mindset that caused 2000 and 2007 has come together into one that will cause a bubble greater than both. Why do I think that? 1

In my gut, I feel like the same mindset that caused 2000 and 2007 has come together into one that will cause a bubble greater than both. Why do I think that? 1.) After watching 'Big Short', it made me realize that a lot of what causes a bubble is no one asking difficult questions because nobody wants to be 'that guy' who ruins the party. 2.) If Facebook, Uber, or the Pepsi ad is any indication, there are a lot of talented 'yes men' going along with business-as-usual because of self-interest. 3.) Snap is more alarming to me than Tesla. Tesla succeeding with their long-term vision is a much safer bet than Snap is. I know a 'social media influencer' and he recently told me that a lot of his network is leaving Snap for 'more stable platforms with broader demographics'. 4.) The recovery will be very different from the last 2 because AI, robots, and other forms of disruption will swallow up thousands, if not millions, of jobs. Why would executives and shareholders decrease margins for PR? Uber was affected a little by their recent issues but they are already 'back on track' it seems. All in all, I am 27 and graduated high school when 2007 happened. I was 10 when the 2000 happened. This is the only world I know, one that works in 8 year cycles. 1992 Bill Clinton was elected with 'it's the economy, stupid'. We are in for quite a ride because fanaticism, corruption, and climate change are all showing up in unexpected ways too. It will all be okay though, suffering builds character.

bmer 10y ago
26, and feeling kind of the same as you. I don't really remember 1999/2000 too well (was too young), but I remember 2007/2008 quite well---my dad got fired from a very well paying job (he was a civil engineer). All of a sudden, I went from being a reasonably rich high school kid (with a straight path into uni), to someone whose parents had to move homes (we were renting, and had to cut down on expenses, especially since I was off to uni) and whose dad was struggling with depression (even though he didn't know what to call it at the time). I am still not quite sure how my dad's depression played into the surfacing of my own, smack back in 2010, right in the middle of my first degree (also in civil engineering), but I know the results: I quit civil engineering, and I have been on and off in school ever since, basically thriving on "passion" and my parent's money... I am not sure if suffering builds character.
- Gibbon1 10y ago
  I remember my dad managing a jump from a downsizing TRW in 1971 to a government gig. Which meant the family rode out the double dip recession of 1979/1982 unscathed. However I couldn't find a job myself at all 1982-1983. Remember being at a small company in 1990-1993 and watching the orders fall and fall. Survived because the owners didn't take a pay check for 2 years. I didn't take a paycheck for 6 months. Company I worked for in 1997 went under due to the Asian Financial Crisis. Division I worked for got tossed over board during the 2001-2002 dot bomb. Even though there was nothing dot bomb about what we did. Somehow managed to come through the 2008 down turn myself, but my GF got laid off, hired, then laid off. > I am not sure if suffering builds character. Look at the above to see; suffering is bullshit. What bothers me is (perhaps I was naive 40 years ago and less so today) but it seems that the political system and the people that control it are committed less and less to having the backs of the general public. Notice that 2009-2011 large banks and insurance companies, private high wealth individuals were bailed out but millions of schmucks lost their homes and small fortunes[1]. And that was a matter of policy. [1] To avoid moral hazard someone needs to suffer. Just not us seems to the way it works now.
  - good_vibes 10y ago
    I understand what you mean but also perception is big thing with what I said about suffering. Also, I used that word from a Buddhist/Stoic context and from my life experience testing out those schools of thought.
- dzonga 10y ago
  When I was in Zimbabwe 2008, prices changed every hour.
- good_vibes 10y ago
  In 2008, my dad was a shipping clerk for an ATM repair company. He lost his job to a younger, fitter, better English-speaking immigrant that would work for less money in 2010. It broke his spirit but he remade himself in the months after by getting into fitness and somehow is better off today than he was then because he had to find that hunger again. He is also a recovering alcoholic, sober for over 20 years. Proud of him for not using that an excuse to start drinking again. A lot of men would have. I dropped out of community college and got laid off from Starbucks in Dec 2009. I spent 2010 smoking weed, eating acid, going hiking, chasing girls, and trying to 'save the world'. I was 20, don't judge too harshly. I decided then what I wanted to do with my life, to avoid self-worth shattering ridicule from a community I respect I'll save that for my 'show HN' moment. The last 7 years of my life have been an uphill struggle to get work experience, master basic life skills, understand subtle dynamics of relationships, and now not accepting failure as an outcome. I've learned to refine my initial concepts and business plans into mathematical proofs supported by a scientific paper (writing now). I've always been into Buddhism and Stoicism, they resonated with me at 20 and still do today at 27. If you're still wanting to try one more time, I'd suggest starting there and giving college/startup/? another try. There is still time to finish what you started.
whytaka 10y ago
>suffering builds character Except in the people it kills. Otherwise, I agree with you.
- good_vibes 10y ago
  That bit came from me thinking about how hard life was for humanity for most of history compared to today. They made it somehow, we have some inconveniences happen to us but it's never been easier to use our circumstances as motivation to learn more and build more.
  - whytaka 10y ago
    Again, the people that made it, made it. There are scores of untold histories of people who did not. It's only to temper our optimism with a reminder of our responsibility to make good decisions and the weight of their consequences.
    - good_vibes 10y ago
      That's part of life though. Think about what wild animals live through every day as they get a drink of water, look for food, protect their home. I'm aware there is survivorship bias but a little delusion is needed or nothing interesting would ever be attempted.

bmer 10y ago

26, and feeling kind of the same as you. I don't really remember 1999/2000 too well (was too young), but I remember 2007/2008 quite well---my dad got fired from a very well paying job (he was a civil engineer). All of a sudden, I went from being a reasonably rich high school kid (with a straight path into uni), to someone whose parents had to move homes (we were renting, and had to cut down on expenses, especially since I was off to uni) and whose dad was struggling with depression (even though he didn't know what to call it at the time). I am still not quite sure how my dad's depression played into the surfacing of my own, smack back in 2010, right in the middle of my first degree (also in civil engineering), but I know the results: I quit civil engineering, and I have been on and off in school ever since, basically thriving on "passion" and my parent's money... I am not sure if suffering builds character.

Gibbon1 10y ago
I remember my dad managing a jump from a downsizing TRW in 1971 to a government gig. Which meant the family rode out the double dip recession of 1979/1982 unscathed. However I couldn't find a job myself at all 1982-1983. Remember being at a small company in 1990-1993 and watching the orders fall and fall. Survived because the owners didn't take a pay check for 2 years. I didn't take a paycheck for 6 months. Company I worked for in 1997 went under due to the Asian Financial Crisis. Division I worked for got tossed over board during the 2001-2002 dot bomb. Even though there was nothing dot bomb about what we did. Somehow managed to come through the 2008 down turn myself, but my GF got laid off, hired, then laid off. > I am not sure if suffering builds character. Look at the above to see; suffering is bullshit. What bothers me is (perhaps I was naive 40 years ago and less so today) but it seems that the political system and the people that control it are committed less and less to having the backs of the general public. Notice that 2009-2011 large banks and insurance companies, private high wealth individuals were bailed out but millions of schmucks lost their homes and small fortunes[1]. And that was a matter of policy. [1] To avoid moral hazard someone needs to suffer. Just not us seems to the way it works now.
- good_vibes 10y ago
  I understand what you mean but also perception is big thing with what I said about suffering. Also, I used that word from a Buddhist/Stoic context and from my life experience testing out those schools of thought.
dzonga 10y ago
When I was in Zimbabwe 2008, prices changed every hour.
good_vibes 10y ago
In 2008, my dad was a shipping clerk for an ATM repair company. He lost his job to a younger, fitter, better English-speaking immigrant that would work for less money in 2010. It broke his spirit but he remade himself in the months after by getting into fitness and somehow is better off today than he was then because he had to find that hunger again. He is also a recovering alcoholic, sober for over 20 years. Proud of him for not using that an excuse to start drinking again. A lot of men would have. I dropped out of community college and got laid off from Starbucks in Dec 2009. I spent 2010 smoking weed, eating acid, going hiking, chasing girls, and trying to 'save the world'. I was 20, don't judge too harshly. I decided then what I wanted to do with my life, to avoid self-worth shattering ridicule from a community I respect I'll save that for my 'show HN' moment. The last 7 years of my life have been an uphill struggle to get work experience, master basic life skills, understand subtle dynamics of relationships, and now not accepting failure as an outcome. I've learned to refine my initial concepts and business plans into mathematical proofs supported by a scientific paper (writing now). I've always been into Buddhism and Stoicism, they resonated with me at 20 and still do today at 27. If you're still wanting to try one more time, I'd suggest starting there and giving college/startup/? another try. There is still time to finish what you started.

whytaka 10y ago

>suffering builds character Except in the people it kills. Otherwise, I agree with you.

good_vibes 10y ago
That bit came from me thinking about how hard life was for humanity for most of history compared to today. They made it somehow, we have some inconveniences happen to us but it's never been easier to use our circumstances as motivation to learn more and build more.
- whytaka 10y ago
  Again, the people that made it, made it. There are scores of untold histories of people who did not. It's only to temper our optimism with a reminder of our responsibility to make good decisions and the weight of their consequences.
  - good_vibes 10y ago
    That's part of life though. Think about what wild animals live through every day as they get a drink of water, look for food, protect their home. I'm aware there is survivorship bias but a little delusion is needed or nothing interesting would ever be attempted.