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Well I expect the Doomsday clock will be getting an update soon. I'm still not convinced that the Chemical Weapons where from Assad or the Russians attack and

by Zenst 10y ago

Well I expect the Doomsday clock will be getting an update soon. I'm still not convinced that the Chemical Weapons where from Assad or the Russians attack and the probability of them actually being in a weapons store the rebels held, to me seems if not equally probable. Mostly from the aspect that Chemical Weapons in the form of landmine dispersol have been used by ISIS in Iraq. Now the aspect that such types of weapons as a Chemical Weapon dispersal is not one we know that well. So an airstrike upon a weapons depot that had such landmines, could most likely cause the mines to release the chemical weapon. Many experts have said that an airstrike upon a chemical weapon store would destroy the chemical weapons. But we are talking about mines as storage. A factor that may well be overlooked or a large unknown in how they react to airstrikes. What we will know eventually is if they fingerprint the chemical weapon in this Syrian event and compare to that used by ISIS in Iraq then if they are the same. So given how Russia and indeed Assad reacts will prove most telling. I also believe Assad would be totally foolish to use Chemical Weapons, more so with Russian support and no need to use them. This and already gave them up, via Russia and again. There was no need for them and they would know the response if they did, and I don't believe even Russia or Assad would be that silly. So from that perspective, Trump just updated the Doomsday clock.

novalis78 10y ago
Completely agree. It almost seems like there is a set of individuals in the US gov that have a personal grudge against Assad and have been trying for years under various administrations to take him out. They don't even seem to consider the possibility of Islamist involvement.
- flukus 10y ago
  Personal or geopolitical? They probably see removing Assad as removing Russia.
  - novalis78 10y ago
    You are right... that makes more sense in its stupidity - maybe some Cold War leftover that just hates the Russians beyond all measure and reason
  - Udik 10y ago
    Nothing to do with Russia. Assad is an ally of Iran, and rather than having a politically stable and militarily capable nation in that area of influence, Israel and Saudi Arabia (among others) would rather have a chaos-ridden post war Iraq or Libya. But they prefer to have the dirty job done by the US- usually it doesn't take much, a bit of lobbying and tons of newspaper articles about the cruel dictator usually do the trick.
- myowncrapulence 10y ago
  Taking him out would remove an easy political scapegoat. Better to keep him as an enemy to sabor rattle against. Those at the top play games, those at the bottom die for it. It's all a way to strengthen the loyalty of voters.
- Zenst 10y ago
  For Trump, those who are most vocal against him are equally more inclined to be against Assad and those vocally supporting Trump, will be almost celebrating. It also helps defuse Russian ties a little, as some will view this action. So It will be interesting to see how his approval rating goes over the next few days. I hope they are not rushing in without all the facts and that is my fear, and maybe they know something that is not public. Time will tell, as always.
Bluestrike2 10y ago
Whether the chemical weapon in question is stored in individual mines or steel containers isn't really an issue compared to other factors like where they're stored (above-ground in a building versus a deep bunker, etc.) when they're planning an airstrike for something like this. A conventional Tomahawk carries ~1,000 pounds of high explosive. In the initial 5 seconds, the explosion's temperature can reach above 263 °C to 290 °C.[0] The boiling point for sarin is 147 °C, and it decomposes very quickly at that temperature. If you can penetrate to where it was stored, the odds are very good that sarin (along with most other chemical weapons) will decompose immediately in the explosion, or at the very least, have the process greatly accelerated. 0. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C-4_(explosive) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C-4_(explosive) 1. https://pubchem.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/compound/sarin#section=Odor https://pubchem.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/compound/sarin#section=Odor
- Zenst 10y ago
  Yes the aspect about how it was stored is a factor and if ammo box with mines, that is a lot of thermal shielding and maybe enough to enable the contained Sarin to avoid direct exposure and enough thermal insulation to curtail reaching that magic 147°C. Even the aspect of how stored, could increase the prospect of some being thrown clear by the initial impact/explosion. Let alone what was used in the airstrike and its characteristics. So still reasonable doubt. I really hope they do a forensics upon that impact sight of Chemical Weapons and get to the truth sooner rather than later.
  - Bluestrike2 10y ago
    Perhaps. Compared to how the OPCW suggests that chemical weapons are normally incinerated and/or neutralized, airstrikes are by no means the preferred solution. But when you don't have physical access, and your main concern is preventing their use against civilian populations, they're one of your few tenable options. The number of missiles used might indicate that stockpiles were targeted multiple times to compensate for such possibilities. That said, the mission planners would likely--as a worst-case scenario--prefer to have the Syrians have to cordon off a contaminated base than risk the possibility of a future CW attack on civilians.
Cyph0n 10y ago
> I'm still not convinced that the Chemical Weapons where from Assad or the Russians attack and the probability of them actually being in a weapons store the rebels held, to me seems if not equally probable. I wasn't aware that the rebels controlled fighter jets? > I also believe Assad would be totally foolish to use Chemical Weapons This is not the first time Assad uses chemical agents... I'm honestly quite surprised to see such a display of mental gymnastics being upvoted on HN.
- geowwy 10y ago
  > This is not the first time Assad uses chemical agents... The situation has changed though. His regime's prospects of surviving are the best they've been since the war started. Why risk upsetting the current situation for such a small gain?
  - Cyph0n 10y ago
    Do you seriously think that Assad thinks about stuff like that? This guy repeatedly allowed the use of chemical agents on his own civilian population! He is the definition of evil, so using them again is just natural.
    - Neverchange 10y ago
      Evil =/= stupid He has absolutely nothing to gain from using chemical agents when he is already winning through conventional means. Even more so considering he probably doesn't plan individual strikes Much more likely this is a false flag pushed by Israel/Saudi Arabia because Assad's regime is an ally of Iran - their biggest rival in the region.
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vytvy 10y ago
What you dont get it, is that russia is a terrorist state with a lot of money and nuclear bombs. They bomb their own people even, and don;'t give a shit about them. Their FSB (KGB) killed opposition party leader, ambassadors, journalists... It's biggest MAFIA in the world and you are saying that common sense should work here and it would be a death note for yourself if you will attack with chemical weapons,. But there is no common sense, they are terrorists and they dont give a shit. The biggest problem with western people, that they can't even understand how that would be possible, so you start thinking and logically that no, they can't do that. But they can, they are different how western people think or see things. That's the biggest weapon of russia, that West just won't get it and they can do whatever they want, everyone is either afraid or just think we still might be friends, or better be friends, because it's useful since they have lots of money. If you want to survive in this world having dictators like Putin, Assad, Lukashenka, Kim Jong-Un, you not just sit and express your concerns like Obama did about what happened, but you act and punch back. They understand only power and actions. If you sit doing nothing it means green light, i can do it. Look what Russia did, when everyone was just raising concerns about what Russia is doing in Crimea and Ukraine, They took Syria too, and started bombing children and Syria people. No one gives a shit and everyone is just concerned. Dictators will stop when you will punch back hard into their face, that's what they understand and only then you can negotiate.
Veratyr 10y ago
> the probability of them actually being in a weapons store the rebels held, to me seems if not equally probable I'm far from an expert here but I read in one report that Assad generally doesn't store the Sarin gas in its final form as it's highly unstable but instead stores one of the precursor chemicals which takes little effort to convert. Doing this would mean a strike on a warehouse wouldn't release the deadly gas. I think it's slightly less probably given that the rebels would have had to made a conscious choice to convert the chemical to Sarin and store it. Do the rebels have any history of using it?

by Zenst 10y ago

novalis78 10y ago

Completely agree. It almost seems like there is a set of individuals in the US gov that have a personal grudge against Assad and have been trying for years under various administrations to take him out. They don't even seem to consider the possibility of Islamist involvement.

flukus 10y ago
Personal or geopolitical? They probably see removing Assad as removing Russia.
- novalis78 10y ago
  You are right... that makes more sense in its stupidity - maybe some Cold War leftover that just hates the Russians beyond all measure and reason
- Udik 10y ago
  Nothing to do with Russia. Assad is an ally of Iran, and rather than having a politically stable and militarily capable nation in that area of influence, Israel and Saudi Arabia (among others) would rather have a chaos-ridden post war Iraq or Libya. But they prefer to have the dirty job done by the US- usually it doesn't take much, a bit of lobbying and tons of newspaper articles about the cruel dictator usually do the trick.
myowncrapulence 10y ago
Taking him out would remove an easy political scapegoat. Better to keep him as an enemy to sabor rattle against. Those at the top play games, those at the bottom die for it. It's all a way to strengthen the loyalty of voters.
Zenst 10y ago
For Trump, those who are most vocal against him are equally more inclined to be against Assad and those vocally supporting Trump, will be almost celebrating. It also helps defuse Russian ties a little, as some will view this action. So It will be interesting to see how his approval rating goes over the next few days. I hope they are not rushing in without all the facts and that is my fear, and maybe they know something that is not public. Time will tell, as always.

Bluestrike2 10y ago

Whether the chemical weapon in question is stored in individual mines or steel containers isn't really an issue compared to other factors like where they're stored (above-ground in a building versus a deep bunker, etc.) when they're planning an airstrike for something like this. A conventional Tomahawk carries ~1,000 pounds of high explosive. In the initial 5 seconds, the explosion's temperature can reach above 263 °C to 290 °C.[0] The boiling point for sarin is 147 °C, and it decomposes very quickly at that temperature. If you can penetrate to where it was stored, the odds are very good that sarin (along with most other chemical weapons) will decompose immediately in the explosion, or at the very least, have the process greatly accelerated. 0. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C-4_(explosive) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C-4_(explosive) 1. https://pubchem.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/compound/sarin#section=Odor https://pubchem.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/compound/sarin#section=Odor

Zenst 10y ago
Yes the aspect about how it was stored is a factor and if ammo box with mines, that is a lot of thermal shielding and maybe enough to enable the contained Sarin to avoid direct exposure and enough thermal insulation to curtail reaching that magic 147°C. Even the aspect of how stored, could increase the prospect of some being thrown clear by the initial impact/explosion. Let alone what was used in the airstrike and its characteristics. So still reasonable doubt. I really hope they do a forensics upon that impact sight of Chemical Weapons and get to the truth sooner rather than later.
- Bluestrike2 10y ago
  Perhaps. Compared to how the OPCW suggests that chemical weapons are normally incinerated and/or neutralized, airstrikes are by no means the preferred solution. But when you don't have physical access, and your main concern is preventing their use against civilian populations, they're one of your few tenable options. The number of missiles used might indicate that stockpiles were targeted multiple times to compensate for such possibilities. That said, the mission planners would likely--as a worst-case scenario--prefer to have the Syrians have to cordon off a contaminated base than risk the possibility of a future CW attack on civilians.

Cyph0n 10y ago

> I'm still not convinced that the Chemical Weapons where from Assad or the Russians attack and the probability of them actually being in a weapons store the rebels held, to me seems if not equally probable. I wasn't aware that the rebels controlled fighter jets? > I also believe Assad would be totally foolish to use Chemical Weapons This is not the first time Assad uses chemical agents... I'm honestly quite surprised to see such a display of mental gymnastics being upvoted on HN.

geowwy 10y ago
> This is not the first time Assad uses chemical agents... The situation has changed though. His regime's prospects of surviving are the best they've been since the war started. Why risk upsetting the current situation for such a small gain?
- Cyph0n 10y ago
  Do you seriously think that Assad thinks about stuff like that? This guy repeatedly allowed the use of chemical agents on his own civilian population! He is the definition of evil, so using them again is just natural.
  - Neverchange 10y ago
    Evil =/= stupid He has absolutely nothing to gain from using chemical agents when he is already winning through conventional means. Even more so considering he probably doesn't plan individual strikes Much more likely this is a false flag pushed by Israel/Saudi Arabia because Assad's regime is an ally of Iran - their biggest rival in the region.
    - deleted 10y ago
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      [deleted]
    - 10y ago

vytvy 10y ago

What you dont get it, is that russia is a terrorist state with a lot of money and nuclear bombs. They bomb their own people even, and don;'t give a shit about them. Their FSB (KGB) killed opposition party leader, ambassadors, journalists... It's biggest MAFIA in the world and you are saying that common sense should work here and it would be a death note for yourself if you will attack with chemical weapons,. But there is no common sense, they are terrorists and they dont give a shit. The biggest problem with western people, that they can't even understand how that would be possible, so you start thinking and logically that no, they can't do that. But they can, they are different how western people think or see things. That's the biggest weapon of russia, that West just won't get it and they can do whatever they want, everyone is either afraid or just think we still might be friends, or better be friends, because it's useful since they have lots of money. If you want to survive in this world having dictators like Putin, Assad, Lukashenka, Kim Jong-Un, you not just sit and express your concerns like Obama did about what happened, but you act and punch back. They understand only power and actions. If you sit doing nothing it means green light, i can do it. Look what Russia did, when everyone was just raising concerns about what Russia is doing in Crimea and Ukraine, They took Syria too, and started bombing children and Syria people. No one gives a shit and everyone is just concerned. Dictators will stop when you will punch back hard into their face, that's what they understand and only then you can negotiate.

Veratyr 10y ago

> the probability of them actually being in a weapons store the rebels held, to me seems if not equally probable I'm far from an expert here but I read in one report that Assad generally doesn't store the Sarin gas in its final form as it's highly unstable but instead stores one of the precursor chemicals which takes little effort to convert. Doing this would mean a strike on a warehouse wouldn't release the deadly gas. I think it's slightly less probably given that the rebels would have had to made a conscious choice to convert the chemical to Sarin and store it. Do the rebels have any history of using it?