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Evidence: Uber is already deploying self driving cars in multiple cities as part of the car sharing network.

by sebleon 10y ago

aetherson 10y ago
And Tesla is already deploying self driving cars in far larger numbers of cities as part of the "own a goddamn Tesla" network. We have ample evidence that Uber's self-driving cars require human intervention orders of magnitude more frequently than Waymo's. The fact that they're using human-driven cars with self-driving assist in a vaguely commercial manner is a marketing tactic, not a statement of technological proficiency.
- sebleon 10y ago
  Could you link me to that ample evidence you speak of? On-demand car sharing is the future, making Tesla's consumer car ownership model outdated. Uber is 5-7 years ahead of Tesla on the operations side of managing and deploying a fleet.
  - nojvek 10y ago
    It's way easier for Tesla to start an self driving fleet with an App than Uber to get into car manufacturing. Lyft partners with GM that acquired Cruise and their tech is solid. They are making cars will all the sensors built in, not add-ons like Uber. Also Uber is losing a shit ton of money. Tesla is not profitable but doesn't bleed that much money. Depending on how Waymo vs Uber goes, Uber may have to shut down their self driving car program temporarily. Stealing 40,000 files is ridiculous. Add that to fact that they didn't get a proper licence so they don't have to report crashes and their self driving car crashed pretty bad. Uber is a risky bet.
    - sebleon 10y ago
      Those are interesting points! Regarding autonomous car technology, since there's so many people working on it, it seems like it may get commoditized soon. If that's the case, being an OEM that supplies the car sharing networks seems like a low margin business, owning the customer relationship is likely to be more profitable. the operational chops to run an efficient fleet might be in shorter supply... right, uber might have to shutdown its autonomous car program, or it may just settle with google and move on with life... Uber has a proper license to run in sf again Uber is absolutely a risky bet. But if they succeed, they may eclipse the car ownership market and get 10x bigger
  - michaelmrose 10y ago
    Tesla can as easily sell to people who manage fleets as individual owners.
    - sebleon 10y ago
      They can, but unclear how good the margins are, if manufacturing becomes commoditized since so many players are investing in it. Lions share of profit will likely go to whomever owns the customer relationship w consumers
      - michaelmrose 10y ago
        The first company to provide a total and credible alternative to a human driver will probably capture most of the market. There is little reason to believe this will happen precisely simultaneously. Even a relatively short lead could be a massive advantage. Also arguably the company providing the contact with the customer is more of a commodity. Certainly its the easiest aspect to replace. 100 companies could handle that tomorrow with existing tech for example. I can imagine people using a service that shops a bunch of car services and lets you connect with any of them.
  - arunvb 10y ago
    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/apr/04/uber-google-waymo-self-driving-cars https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/apr/04/uber-goog...
- sebleon 10y ago
  Also, tsla is neither bigger than uber nor profitable... so it doesn't fall into the categories you brought up earlier

Evidence: Uber is already deploying self driving cars in multiple cities as part of the car sharing network.

by sebleon 10y ago

Evidence: Uber is already deploying self driving cars in multiple cities as part of the car sharing network.

And Tesla is already deploying self driving cars in far larger numbers of cities as part of the "own a goddamn Tesla" network. We have ample evidence that Uber's self-driving cars require human intervention orders of magnitude more frequently than Waymo's. The fact that they're using human-driven cars with self-driving assist in a vaguely commercial manner is a marketing tactic, not a statement of technological proficiency.

sebleon 10y ago
Could you link me to that ample evidence you speak of? On-demand car sharing is the future, making Tesla's consumer car ownership model outdated. Uber is 5-7 years ahead of Tesla on the operations side of managing and deploying a fleet.
- nojvek 10y ago
  It's way easier for Tesla to start an self driving fleet with an App than Uber to get into car manufacturing. Lyft partners with GM that acquired Cruise and their tech is solid. They are making cars will all the sensors built in, not add-ons like Uber. Also Uber is losing a shit ton of money. Tesla is not profitable but doesn't bleed that much money. Depending on how Waymo vs Uber goes, Uber may have to shut down their self driving car program temporarily. Stealing 40,000 files is ridiculous. Add that to fact that they didn't get a proper licence so they don't have to report crashes and their self driving car crashed pretty bad. Uber is a risky bet.
  - sebleon 10y ago
    Those are interesting points! Regarding autonomous car technology, since there's so many people working on it, it seems like it may get commoditized soon. If that's the case, being an OEM that supplies the car sharing networks seems like a low margin business, owning the customer relationship is likely to be more profitable. the operational chops to run an efficient fleet might be in shorter supply... right, uber might have to shutdown its autonomous car program, or it may just settle with google and move on with life... Uber has a proper license to run in sf again Uber is absolutely a risky bet. But if they succeed, they may eclipse the car ownership market and get 10x bigger
- michaelmrose 10y ago
  Tesla can as easily sell to people who manage fleets as individual owners.
  - sebleon 10y ago
    They can, but unclear how good the margins are, if manufacturing becomes commoditized since so many players are investing in it. Lions share of profit will likely go to whomever owns the customer relationship w consumers
    - michaelmrose 10y ago
      The first company to provide a total and credible alternative to a human driver will probably capture most of the market. There is little reason to believe this will happen precisely simultaneously. Even a relatively short lead could be a massive advantage. Also arguably the company providing the contact with the customer is more of a commodity. Certainly its the easiest aspect to replace. 100 companies could handle that tomorrow with existing tech for example. I can imagine people using a service that shops a bunch of car services and lets you connect with any of them.
- arunvb 10y ago
  https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/apr/04/uber-google-waymo-self-driving-cars https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/apr/04/uber-goog...
sebleon 10y ago
Also, tsla is neither bigger than uber nor profitable... so it doesn't fall into the categories you brought up earlier