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Uber has made some tremendous progress towards offering self-driving cars, which completely changes the economics of ride sharing. Lyft might be quietly making

by sebleon 10y ago

Uber has made some tremendous progress towards offering self-driving cars, which completely changes the economics of ride sharing. Lyft might be quietly making moves in this direction too, but I'd worry about their ability to stay competitive without an aggressive self-driving initiative.

toomuchtodo 10y ago
All that self driving progress Uber made is going to be wiped out by Google's lawsuit.
- sebleon 10y ago
  They'll probably settle and move on with life
  - aetherson 10y ago
    I'm not sure that Waymo's lawsuit is the existential threat to Uber's self-driving program that other people think it is. But if we grant for a moment the premise that the lawsuit could substantially set back Uber's program if it is won, and that it has a decent chance of winning, then what is the incentive for Google to settle? Uber doesn't just get to decide to settle unilaterally. If we don't grant that premise, what is our basis for believing that the premise is untrue? Personally, I don't claim to really understand the ins and outs of these kinds of lawsuits, and am comfortably agnostic.
    - rhino369 10y ago
      One reason for settlement would be a partnership.
      - toomuchtodo 10y ago
        Yeah, but Google doesn't need Uber. Google has the self driving tech (clearly), has the reach (Google Maps on Android and iOS). Uber? Ain't nobody need Uber.
        omarchowdhury 10y ago
        That would be amazing if Google just added in Uber's entire business as a feature into Maps.
        toomuchtodo 10y ago
        Since Uber is already in there [1], Google just needs to push out an app update that swaps the copy to "Waymo". Boom. A string change, and Uber's business model goes poof. Was mighty kind of Uber and its investors to prove out the business model for Google. [1] https://newsroom.uber.com/googlemaps/ https://newsroom.uber.com/googlemaps/
        sebleon 10y ago
        That's a really interesting point! Other complexity in this business is the operational nightmare of efficiently managing a fleet, but if there's one company that has the tech chops to make this happen fast, it's Google.
        rhino369 10y ago
        Not a bad point, but Uber has market share. If you brow beat them into a partnership on favorable terms it would be quite useful.
        toomuchtodo 10y ago
        Ehh, just strike a deal with Apple to share revenue if they ban Uber from the app store. Where's Uber going if they're not on the Play or App store?
bdrool 10y ago
GM, owners of cruise.ai, are investors in Lyft. It seems likely that relationship will be used to help both companies move towards an autonomous car future.
aetherson 10y ago
A ton of companies are working on self-driving cars, including many companies that are: a. Bigger than Uber. b. Have actual profitable businesses that they can use to fund their research. I have never seen any kind of evidence that Uber will either be the first to market with true self-driving cars, or that their self-driving cars will be superior in kind to their competitors. The closest thing to evidence that I've ever seen anyone provide that Uber self-driving cars are going to have any advantages to their many rivals is "this is an existential issue to Uber." Companies fail all the time. This is pretty strong evidence that "existential problems" are not guaranteed to be solvable ones.
- sebleon 10y ago
  Evidence: Uber is already deploying self driving cars in multiple cities as part of the car sharing network.
  - aetherson 10y ago
    And Tesla is already deploying self driving cars in far larger numbers of cities as part of the "own a goddamn Tesla" network. We have ample evidence that Uber's self-driving cars require human intervention orders of magnitude more frequently than Waymo's. The fact that they're using human-driven cars with self-driving assist in a vaguely commercial manner is a marketing tactic, not a statement of technological proficiency.
    - sebleon 10y ago
      Could you link me to that ample evidence you speak of? On-demand car sharing is the future, making Tesla's consumer car ownership model outdated. Uber is 5-7 years ahead of Tesla on the operations side of managing and deploying a fleet.
      - nojvek 10y ago
        It's way easier for Tesla to start an self driving fleet with an App than Uber to get into car manufacturing. Lyft partners with GM that acquired Cruise and their tech is solid. They are making cars will all the sensors built in, not add-ons like Uber. Also Uber is losing a shit ton of money. Tesla is not profitable but doesn't bleed that much money. Depending on how Waymo vs Uber goes, Uber may have to shut down their self driving car program temporarily. Stealing 40,000 files is ridiculous. Add that to fact that they didn't get a proper licence so they don't have to report crashes and their self driving car crashed pretty bad. Uber is a risky bet.

by sebleon 10y ago

toomuchtodo 10y ago

All that self driving progress Uber made is going to be wiped out by Google's lawsuit.

sebleon 10y ago
They'll probably settle and move on with life
- aetherson 10y ago
  I'm not sure that Waymo's lawsuit is the existential threat to Uber's self-driving program that other people think it is. But if we grant for a moment the premise that the lawsuit could substantially set back Uber's program if it is won, and that it has a decent chance of winning, then what is the incentive for Google to settle? Uber doesn't just get to decide to settle unilaterally. If we don't grant that premise, what is our basis for believing that the premise is untrue? Personally, I don't claim to really understand the ins and outs of these kinds of lawsuits, and am comfortably agnostic.
  - rhino369 10y ago
    One reason for settlement would be a partnership.
    - toomuchtodo 10y ago
      Yeah, but Google doesn't need Uber. Google has the self driving tech (clearly), has the reach (Google Maps on Android and iOS). Uber? Ain't nobody need Uber.
      - omarchowdhury 10y ago
        That would be amazing if Google just added in Uber's entire business as a feature into Maps.
        toomuchtodo 10y ago
        Since Uber is already in there [1], Google just needs to push out an app update that swaps the copy to "Waymo". Boom. A string change, and Uber's business model goes poof. Was mighty kind of Uber and its investors to prove out the business model for Google. [1] https://newsroom.uber.com/googlemaps/ https://newsroom.uber.com/googlemaps/
      - sebleon 10y ago
        That's a really interesting point! Other complexity in this business is the operational nightmare of efficiently managing a fleet, but if there's one company that has the tech chops to make this happen fast, it's Google.
      - rhino369 10y ago
        Not a bad point, but Uber has market share. If you brow beat them into a partnership on favorable terms it would be quite useful.
        toomuchtodo 10y ago
        Ehh, just strike a deal with Apple to share revenue if they ban Uber from the app store. Where's Uber going if they're not on the Play or App store?

bdrool 10y ago

GM, owners of cruise.ai, are investors in Lyft. It seems likely that relationship will be used to help both companies move towards an autonomous car future.

aetherson 10y ago

A ton of companies are working on self-driving cars, including many companies that are: a. Bigger than Uber. b. Have actual profitable businesses that they can use to fund their research. I have never seen any kind of evidence that Uber will either be the first to market with true self-driving cars, or that their self-driving cars will be superior in kind to their competitors. The closest thing to evidence that I've ever seen anyone provide that Uber self-driving cars are going to have any advantages to their many rivals is "this is an existential issue to Uber." Companies fail all the time. This is pretty strong evidence that "existential problems" are not guaranteed to be solvable ones.

sebleon 10y ago
Evidence: Uber is already deploying self driving cars in multiple cities as part of the car sharing network.
- aetherson 10y ago
  And Tesla is already deploying self driving cars in far larger numbers of cities as part of the "own a goddamn Tesla" network. We have ample evidence that Uber's self-driving cars require human intervention orders of magnitude more frequently than Waymo's. The fact that they're using human-driven cars with self-driving assist in a vaguely commercial manner is a marketing tactic, not a statement of technological proficiency.
  - sebleon 10y ago
    Could you link me to that ample evidence you speak of? On-demand car sharing is the future, making Tesla's consumer car ownership model outdated. Uber is 5-7 years ahead of Tesla on the operations side of managing and deploying a fleet.
    - nojvek 10y ago
      It's way easier for Tesla to start an self driving fleet with an App than Uber to get into car manufacturing. Lyft partners with GM that acquired Cruise and their tech is solid. They are making cars will all the sensors built in, not add-ons like Uber. Also Uber is losing a shit ton of money. Tesla is not profitable but doesn't bleed that much money. Depending on how Waymo vs Uber goes, Uber may have to shut down their self driving car program temporarily. Stealing 40,000 files is ridiculous. Add that to fact that they didn't get a proper licence so they don't have to report crashes and their self driving car crashed pretty bad. Uber is a risky bet.