4 ms·

>I appreciate the tech very much, but the visions of "Millions of people working in space"? "The billionaire tech entrepreneur also laid out a vision for space

by hwillis 10y ago

>I appreciate the tech very much, but the visions of "Millions of people working in space"? "The billionaire tech entrepreneur also laid out a vision for space commercialization that stretches out for hundreds of years, leading to an era when millions of people would be living and working in space."[1] This is hundreds of years in the future, at which point Bezos believes the population of the earth will be in the tens or hundreds of billions. He thinks the surface of the earth will be "zoned strictly for 'residential and light industrial'", probably for a combination of pollution, land quality, and resource scarcity. In that scenario (which seems unlikely) millions of people would be like .001% of the population, which makes... some sense? [1] http://www.geekwire.com/2016/jeff-bezos-lifts-curtain-blue-origin-rocket-factory-vision-space/ http://www.geekwire.com/2016/jeff-bezos-lifts-curtain-blue-o...

riffraff 10y ago
> at which point Bezos believes the population of the earth will be in the tens or hundreds of billion where do you see this mentioned? I think it's generally agreed earth population will never get to hundreds of billion, the demographic trend is to get to around ~10B and stop there (kids per family decrease as living conditions improve, and they are at ~2 in most of the world bar africa) EDIT: AIU it, Bezos just thinks we will have laws set up to avoid destroying our environment, hence forbidding things like heavy industry on earth.
dagw 10y ago
leading to an era when millions of people would be living and working in space. That was one thing in The Expanse (great TV show about basically this (and also a series of books that I haven't read yet)), that I found a bit odd. We're currently doing everything we can to replace truck drivers and miners on earth with robots. So why would truck driving and mining in space be done entirely by humans?
- TeMPOraL 10y ago
  Apparently they don't have advanced enough robots to do all the jobs for humans. The problem with automation and AI is that a powerful enough AI will render any story pretty boring, because it can basically do anything. So when writing fiction, one has to put brakes on some implications of technology just to be able to make a story. But assuming that fully-automated space-everything wasn't developed before Epstein drive[0], the geopolitical (systempolitical?) situation makes the whole scenario plausible - you have overcrowded Earth with most people living on Basic Income just because there aren't enough opportunities, Martians hell-bent on terraforming their world ASAP, and the Belters, who can't live downwell and whose ability to provide services to inner planets is the only way to survive out there. One could imagine a strong opposition to automated mining from the Belt, and powers on Earth and Mars not too eager to upset that. -- Also, read the books. TV show is awesome, but the books are even better :). I binge-read them all last month. -- [0] - pretty much the only fictional human technology in The Expanse; it's a hyper-efficient fusion drive
  - sqeaky 10y ago
    I highly recommend all of the culture Novels By Iain M Banks. IF you haven't read any consider "The Player of Game" for a light fun read and "The Use of Weapons" for something a little harder and more touching on existential issues. All of the culture novels feature "AI is that a powerful enough AI [sic]" yet I do not feel these stories are rendered boring. The AIs just become more characters.
- hwillis 10y ago
  Less hard sci Fi, more space opera, I think. It has themes.
- anubisresources 10y ago
  The author has stated that while he believes actual space colonization will be mostly robotic, that makes for an extremely boring story. So people, not robots are in space.

by hwillis 10y ago

riffraff 10y ago

> at which point Bezos believes the population of the earth will be in the tens or hundreds of billion where do you see this mentioned? I think it's generally agreed earth population will never get to hundreds of billion, the demographic trend is to get to around ~10B and stop there (kids per family decrease as living conditions improve, and they are at ~2 in most of the world bar africa) EDIT: AIU it, Bezos just thinks we will have laws set up to avoid destroying our environment, hence forbidding things like heavy industry on earth.

dagw 10y ago

leading to an era when millions of people would be living and working in space. That was one thing in The Expanse (great TV show about basically this (and also a series of books that I haven't read yet)), that I found a bit odd. We're currently doing everything we can to replace truck drivers and miners on earth with robots. So why would truck driving and mining in space be done entirely by humans?

TeMPOraL 10y ago
Apparently they don't have advanced enough robots to do all the jobs for humans. The problem with automation and AI is that a powerful enough AI will render any story pretty boring, because it can basically do anything. So when writing fiction, one has to put brakes on some implications of technology just to be able to make a story. But assuming that fully-automated space-everything wasn't developed before Epstein drive[0], the geopolitical (systempolitical?) situation makes the whole scenario plausible - you have overcrowded Earth with most people living on Basic Income just because there aren't enough opportunities, Martians hell-bent on terraforming their world ASAP, and the Belters, who can't live downwell and whose ability to provide services to inner planets is the only way to survive out there. One could imagine a strong opposition to automated mining from the Belt, and powers on Earth and Mars not too eager to upset that. -- Also, read the books. TV show is awesome, but the books are even better :). I binge-read them all last month. -- [0] - pretty much the only fictional human technology in The Expanse; it's a hyper-efficient fusion drive
- sqeaky 10y ago
  I highly recommend all of the culture Novels By Iain M Banks. IF you haven't read any consider "The Player of Game" for a light fun read and "The Use of Weapons" for something a little harder and more touching on existential issues. All of the culture novels feature "AI is that a powerful enough AI [sic]" yet I do not feel these stories are rendered boring. The AIs just become more characters.
hwillis 10y ago
Less hard sci Fi, more space opera, I think. It has themes.
anubisresources 10y ago
The author has stated that while he believes actual space colonization will be mostly robotic, that makes for an extremely boring story. So people, not robots are in space.