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You continue to reduce the effects of the referendum to Deutsche Bank analysts' opinion on British and German stocks. Why do you bring Italian banks into this?
by lorenzhs 10y ago
You continue to reduce the effects of the referendum to Deutsche Bank analysts' opinion on British and German stocks.
Why do you bring Italian banks into this? They are completely unrelated to the topic at hand.
It's not new or surprising that a falling currency is good for exports and can fuel an economy. Countries were and are regularly accused of manipulating their currencies to achieve that. The thing is that Brexit hasn't happened yet, so neither have its effects. Nobody knows whom it will affect or how. But the drop in the Pound's value is a clear sign that the markets don't have a whole lot of faith. If the Pound's weakness helps their economy now, then good for them. But it doesn't prove the point you think it does.
Nobody can predict the future, so claiming that predictions about it "reflect economic reality" is misleading. The recommendation is likely to represent the analyst's sincere expectation, though. I'm not arguing to the contrary.
- threepipeproblm 10y ago>> It's not new or surprising that a falling currency is good for exports and can fuel an economy. Except that was an argument promoted primarily by Leavers, who favored letting the currency fall, right? The majority who where against Brexit predicted severe economic problems for Britain as a direct consequence of leaving what was characterized as "safety" of the EU. The relevance seems obvious, because the opposite is happening? By the way I'm not reducing this to DB's analysis, that's why I hinted at the larger upturn for Britain and downturn for core EU countries in the wake of Brexit. There are other indicators... I would suggest looking on on your own. I'm sorry that you think investment advice can have no bearing in economic reality... but in that light, I don't think it would be productive for us to continue.
- lorenzhs 10y agoLet me repeat: Britain hasn't left yet, negotiations for the terms of Brexit are just beginning. I was rather hoping I wouldn't have to dig up old "BUY MORE TECH STOCKS" or "BUY MORE HOUSES" articles from the height of the dot-com bubble or US housing bubble to point out that analyst opinions aren't necessarily right.
- threepipeproblm 10y agoAP News: "The countdown begins: Britain to start EU exit on March 29" The markets are already factoring this in, dude. But that could be hard to see if you don't believe that markets embed any reliable information.
- ptaipale 10y agoExactly. Of course the markets only factor in what they understand, and sometimes they get it wrong. But the relevant thing about it is that the market is betting in the real, hard money it trades with, not political punditry which is where the disaster is being pronounced.