5 ms·

There is very little substance to this article. This is the core "strategy": "This suggests my new Bitcoin trading strategy, which I admit I have only tried so

There is very little substance to this article. This is the core "strategy": "This suggests my new Bitcoin trading strategy, which I admit I have only tried so far on paper. [...] Bitcoins go down in value when the demand for them as transaction instruments decreases. When that Russian oligarch sells his shiftload of Bitcoins for US dollars, Bitcoin value goes down. When that happens — when Bitcoin prices drop by 20 percent or more — BUY! The price will inevitably come back up, I assure you. When Bitcoin prices rise by 20 percent or more — SELL! You just made 40 percent on your money. Rinse, repeat, automate, get rich." This is also known as gambling. I'm not judging gamblers, but if it were so easy, the author of this post would have implemented it in a few lines of code and actually gotten rich instead of writing a muddy, unclear piece of trivialities.

dalore 10y ago
Let me summarise it a bit more for you. Buy low, sell high.
- stephengillie 10y ago
  "Step 1: Be a person who intuitively knows what prices ought to be. Then simply arbitrage accordingly."
- camus2 10y ago
  Yeah, lol, how low is low? how high is high? I mean this got to be the most meaningless sentence ever.
  - mhluongo 10y ago
    That's the point of the summary. The blog post had no substance.
mikulas_florek 10y ago
Example: 1. I have 0 bitcoins, price is $1250 2. Price drop 20% to $1000 3. I buy 1bitcoin for $1000 4. Price rise to $1200 5. I sell at $1200, earning 20%, not 40% Am I missing something?
- mhluongo 10y ago
  The part where it can instead drop to $300, and you lose 70%, as happened after Gox :)
FabHK 10y ago
To be fair, there's just a bit more to it, as Duffie said at the end. It can be proven that you can't make money trading martingales, no matter how sophisticated the "trading strategy". You can make money if the process is not a martingale, but exhibits momentum or the opposite, mean reversion. What the author of the article suggested (buy after drop) would make money if there is mean reversion. In mature markets, we should not expect much of that.

dalore 10y ago

Let me summarise it a bit more for you. Buy low, sell high.

stephengillie 10y ago
"Step 1: Be a person who intuitively knows what prices ought to be. Then simply arbitrage accordingly."
camus2 10y ago
Yeah, lol, how low is low? how high is high? I mean this got to be the most meaningless sentence ever.
- mhluongo 10y ago
  That's the point of the summary. The blog post had no substance.

mikulas_florek 10y ago

Example: 1. I have 0 bitcoins, price is $1250 2. Price drop 20% to $1000 3. I buy 1bitcoin for $1000 4. Price rise to $1200 5. I sell at $1200, earning 20%, not 40% Am I missing something?

mhluongo 10y ago
The part where it can instead drop to $300, and you lose 70%, as happened after Gox :)

FabHK 10y ago

To be fair, there's just a bit more to it, as Duffie said at the end. It can be proven that you can't make money trading martingales, no matter how sophisticated the "trading strategy". You can make money if the process is not a martingale, but exhibits momentum or the opposite, mean reversion. What the author of the article suggested (buy after drop) would make money if there is mean reversion. In mature markets, we should not expect much of that.