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1. Nope. Are you just pulling numbers from a hat? Nissan sold 14,000 leafs last year, add that to the 24,000 volts and the 8,000 i3s and you get more than the m

1. Nope. Are you just pulling numbers from a hat? Nissan sold 14,000 leafs last year, add that to the 24,000 volts and the 8,000 i3s and you get more than the model S. 2. Im saying the current business is minuscule, if we looked at elons promises as gospel (which you apparently do) we would have had a model x three years ago. LGchem and Samsung SDI are more than capable to meet the demand of the current lithium battery market without panasonic. 3. Speculation 4. Tesla has a SAE level 1 system which is the same as my VW golfs adaptive cruise with lane assist. They sell the car with the "hardware" and you think they are done? -> " All we have to do is build the controls and software now!!" By this logic throwing a couple cameras on the car means it has "self-driving hardware".

sxates 10y ago
1. "Tesla delivered over 76,000 vehicles in 2016" [1]. My math may be rusty, but I'm pretty sure I'm right that they're outselling everyone combined with $100k cars. They're tracking to over 100,000 for 2017. 2. Several billion dollars worth of capital investments disagree with you. And what's important isn't the current market, but the future market - these things are growing and production bottlenecks kill growth. 3. Again, look at the trend lines not just what it is today. 4. A golf you buy today will keep lanes, and will never do anything better. A Tesla has all the hardware needed for Level 5 autonomy (which they've demo'd, but requires regulatory approval), and it's a software update away. And their whole fleet is sensors-on all the time, whether you're using it or not to enable that, which is not true for any other vehicle manufacturer. Google is the only other company that's close. I'm no disciple, but I can see where the puck is going to be. [1] http://www.theverge.com/2017/1/3/14159292/tesla-q4-2016-delivery-production-model-s-x http://www.theverge.com/2017/1/3/14159292/tesla-q4-2016-deli...
- legolas2412 10y ago
  You do buy in Tesla's marketing as gospel though. > A Tesla has all the hardware needed for Level 5 autonomy (which they've demo'd, but requires regulatory approval), and it's a software update away. Audi, BMW, Google etc. demoe'd similar capacity as the tesla did 2-3 years ago. Do you even understand how difficult problem it is? It's not a problem you engineer away. Do you think Tesla made machine learning breakthroughs that Google or CMU (Uber) researchers couldn't? Tesla beating Google at Machine learning? > And their whole fleet is sensors-on all the time, whether you're using it or not to enable that, which is not true for any other vehicle manufacturer. Does it matter what kind of sensor? Almost everybody else agrees LIDAR is necessary. And what use is random data from useless sensors? It's like saying that you'd put cameras in a pedestrian crossing, and soon you'll process it to make a human level intelligence.
  - sxates 10y ago
    They demo'd it, but they didn't ship it!
    - legolas2412 10y ago
      Ahh, a controlled demo on a test track with impeccably clear road lines and signs. Something they could have tested a hundred times with, potentially overfitting a route. Even then the Tesla was over-cautius, stopping metres before in front of a stop sign. And that is still level3 or level4. Level5 is inarguably far far away.
- bischofs 10y ago
  1. You are comparing all of tesla models to individual models from other brands 2. You want to speculate on the future market, go ahead, I dont think Tesla has any special position on lithium batteries. 3. Solar is not a hockey stick, not sure what trend lines you are talking about. 4. Talk to anyone working on self driving cars and they will tell you level 5 is at least 10 years away. Can a tesla drive on icey road in northern canada in blizzard conditions with a couple failed sensors? Nope, then it is not level 5.

sxates 10y ago

1. "Tesla delivered over 76,000 vehicles in 2016" [1]. My math may be rusty, but I'm pretty sure I'm right that they're outselling everyone combined with $100k cars. They're tracking to over 100,000 for 2017. 2. Several billion dollars worth of capital investments disagree with you. And what's important isn't the current market, but the future market - these things are growing and production bottlenecks kill growth. 3. Again, look at the trend lines not just what it is today. 4. A golf you buy today will keep lanes, and will never do anything better. A Tesla has all the hardware needed for Level 5 autonomy (which they've demo'd, but requires regulatory approval), and it's a software update away. And their whole fleet is sensors-on all the time, whether you're using it or not to enable that, which is not true for any other vehicle manufacturer. Google is the only other company that's close. I'm no disciple, but I can see where the puck is going to be. [1] http://www.theverge.com/2017/1/3/14159292/tesla-q4-2016-delivery-production-model-s-x http://www.theverge.com/2017/1/3/14159292/tesla-q4-2016-deli...

legolas2412 10y ago
You do buy in Tesla's marketing as gospel though. > A Tesla has all the hardware needed for Level 5 autonomy (which they've demo'd, but requires regulatory approval), and it's a software update away. Audi, BMW, Google etc. demoe'd similar capacity as the tesla did 2-3 years ago. Do you even understand how difficult problem it is? It's not a problem you engineer away. Do you think Tesla made machine learning breakthroughs that Google or CMU (Uber) researchers couldn't? Tesla beating Google at Machine learning? > And their whole fleet is sensors-on all the time, whether you're using it or not to enable that, which is not true for any other vehicle manufacturer. Does it matter what kind of sensor? Almost everybody else agrees LIDAR is necessary. And what use is random data from useless sensors? It's like saying that you'd put cameras in a pedestrian crossing, and soon you'll process it to make a human level intelligence.
- sxates 10y ago
  They demo'd it, but they didn't ship it!
  - legolas2412 10y ago
    Ahh, a controlled demo on a test track with impeccably clear road lines and signs. Something they could have tested a hundred times with, potentially overfitting a route. Even then the Tesla was over-cautius, stopping metres before in front of a stop sign. And that is still level3 or level4. Level5 is inarguably far far away.
bischofs 10y ago
1. You are comparing all of tesla models to individual models from other brands 2. You want to speculate on the future market, go ahead, I dont think Tesla has any special position on lithium batteries. 3. Solar is not a hockey stick, not sure what trend lines you are talking about. 4. Talk to anyone working on self driving cars and they will tell you level 5 is at least 10 years away. Can a tesla drive on icey road in northern canada in blizzard conditions with a couple failed sensors? Nope, then it is not level 5.