8 ms·

> The "mobility" market will be about the size of the taxi, bus, and train market. - A personal, individual vehicle which comes to pick you up where you are an

by tbabb 10y ago

> The "mobility" market will be about the size of the taxi, bus, and train market. - A personal, individual vehicle which comes to pick you up where you are and take you to exactly where you want to go is a much MUCH higher value proposition than public transit. - Add self-driving to the mix, and the cost of that service will plummet. - When the car providing that service can drive itself, then there is little to no inconvenience to the vehicle owner to offer that service, and significant financial incentive. - Because car owners will be able to make "rent" from their capital investment, owning a car will start to look more like property ownership than a depreciating investment-- especially as maintenance and operation costs fall for electric vehicles. - There will be very strong financial incentive to use self-driving ride pools instead of putting up a large wad of cash to own a car. So total car ownership will go way down, and will be done much more by the wealthy and much less by the working/middle class. - Cost of ownership is especially high in cities (parking), and the market for ride sharing is highest. So probably many fewer city dwellers will own cars. - Families that own can shrink to one car instead of two, since the car can drop people off or pick them up. I think there are a lot of pretty good reasons why the vehicle market is going to change significantly in the next 15 years.

emodendroket 10y ago
> Cost of ownership is especially high in cities (parking), and the market for ride sharing is highest. So probably many fewer city dwellers will own cars. If it's really self-driving it can go park wherever. Not very good for the environment, perhaps, but it completely solves that problem.
- bad_hairpiece 10y ago
  The farther the car goes to park, the longer the wait for it to pick you up on demand. Not to mention, traveling a few blocks rarely saves much on parking in densely populated areas.
  - emodendroket 10y ago
    It can travel way further than "a few blocks" and I'd guess most trips are not so unexpected that it's impossible to accept a delay of 30 minutes or maybe even longer.
    - tbabb 10y ago
      If your parking spot isn't included as part of the building where you live, then you're going to have to either buy some more property (however small or far away) to keep your car, or pay someone to let you park your car on theirs.
      - emodendroket 10y ago
        Yes, agreed, but if you live in a major city that's already the case (or you drive around for an hour looking for a space, something the self-driving car could also do).
        tbabb 10y ago
        Right. And so my point is the expense and inconvenience of parking in cities is incentive for you to either (a) not buy a car, and instead use an on-demand (self-driving) rideshare service, or (b) buy a car, and recoup costs at little inconvenience by putting it into a self-driving rideshare pool. The end result is fewer cars owned by fewer people, but utilized much more fully, so the cars that do exist in cities spend more of their time driving and in-service, rather than sitting parked and empty for 98% of their lifetimes.
        emodendroket 10y ago
        But a self-driving car that can either find street parking or else drive to some suburban lot makes that incentive much weaker, not stronger?
        vidarh 10y ago
PinguTS 10y ago
The funny thing, some of this already exists these days. It is called ZipCar, Car2Go, or DriveNow. All of them suffer from the very same problem: service. It does not matter if a car is selfdriving or not. To be recognized as available by someone means a utilization of about 30% by the providing company. But a utilization of about 30% does not drive down costs. You still of costs for producing and servicing the vehicle, which is way higher than just the energy costs. Tesla has no experience in free floating vehilce fleets. Uber has no experience in such thing. ZipCar has. Car2Go has. Car2Go as an subsidary of Daimler even has experience in car production. Now think of that.
- taysic 10y ago
  ZipCar does not pick you up and drop you off at location. I can tell you as a Zip Car user, there are many issues that caused me to discontinue, none of which was service. 1 - the zip cars available to me are a few blocks away to walk which isn't convenient if I'm carrying something or lazy. 2 - high cost. Taking uber right now is so much cheaper. Imagine if cars were self-driving. Costs would plummet 3 - parking. This can be very hard depending on where I'm going 4 - I have to pay for the length of time I'm out, not for my ride. I also need to return the car when I'm done. These are the biggest pain points in my opinion. Also, not needing to drive myself is a huge bonus. The leverage of solving these pain points are huge, imo.
- mattnewton 10y ago
  As a zip car member, I wish it did all those things, but it is a far cry from the self-driving future GP is talking about. I'm also worried about tesla's market share, but more because I don't know if they can corner all the markets they are about to compete in: automotive manufacturing, batteries and set driving systems are all hard enough problems for an entire company. It's a lot to get right.
- sean_appleby 10y ago
  The ridesharing systems (like uber pool and lyft line) are meant to alleviate that utilization problem. Zipcar has no experience with the complex logistics automation work for ridesharing that Uber and Lyft are doing, nor do they have a large enough userbase to make that ridesharing system viable and competitive.
Spooky23 10y ago
This is a common pattern to electric and self-driving enthusiasts, but unfortunately it's the automotive equivalent of Wired articles about the internet circa 1996. Problems include: - Cost. All of the (limited) Tesla automation technologies cost more than my last car. - Liability. Who is liable for mishaps? As Uber has demonstrated accidents and traffic violations happen with automated tech. - Utility. The majority of users aren't high income people in SFO and NYC. We have parking, getting picked up is cool, but not high ROI. - Pool vs own. As we've seen with transportation services as varied as stagecoaches, cabs, railways, and airlines, service based transportation models aren't cheap. Service price is always demand driven, it will cost more when you need it. - Owning a car in the US is one of the greatest values available in any market. I can be at any point in the CONUS in <3 days for under $500 with most cars. I think self driving cars may put the bullet in some cabs for good after Uber and Lyft implode, and may bring train-like scale to intercity transit. But the fantasy being sold today is just that.
- karpodiem 10y ago
  Thank you, I've wanted to make a point similar to the one you've made but already tied it all together.
- anko 10y ago
  > Cost: We're not there yet, but not paying registration/insurance/repayments/garage space will make this economical in time - at first at least for second car owners > Liability: Insurance - I think automation will be safer i.e. less accidents > Utility: I think door to door driving without looking for parking is a pretty good perk > Pool vs. own: Both of these models will be competitive with each other, so in the end it won't matter plus there will be additional benefits Safety: Less drunk drivers on the road, less accidents from fatigue, etc. Cost: at a minimum, it will bring cab prices down Efficiency: Less traffic jams as autonomous systems won't slam on the brakes when they see a police car, etc. Smoother flowing traffic, higher legal road speeds if reaction time is shorter And then there are other non-car transport which will benefit: logicistics, mail, deliveries etc. Minibuses that could pick you up door to door through automated route planning etc.
  - 10y ago
Tloewald 10y ago
> I think there are a lot of pretty good reasons why the vehicle market is going to change significantly in the next 15 years But not necessarily shrinking the market. The cost of mobility goes down, consumption will go up. How high? I'm going to guess absurdly high. The reason US cities are sprawling messes is that they were built as the cost of mobility dropped off a cliff (cars and trucks replaced horses). Go read Clifford Simak's "City". People will live in self driving cars and commute in their sleep. It's going to be nuts.

by tbabb 10y ago

emodendroket 10y ago

> Cost of ownership is especially high in cities (parking), and the market for ride sharing is highest. So probably many fewer city dwellers will own cars. If it's really self-driving it can go park wherever. Not very good for the environment, perhaps, but it completely solves that problem.

bad_hairpiece 10y ago
The farther the car goes to park, the longer the wait for it to pick you up on demand. Not to mention, traveling a few blocks rarely saves much on parking in densely populated areas.
- emodendroket 10y ago
  It can travel way further than "a few blocks" and I'd guess most trips are not so unexpected that it's impossible to accept a delay of 30 minutes or maybe even longer.
  - tbabb 10y ago
    If your parking spot isn't included as part of the building where you live, then you're going to have to either buy some more property (however small or far away) to keep your car, or pay someone to let you park your car on theirs.
    - emodendroket 10y ago
      Yes, agreed, but if you live in a major city that's already the case (or you drive around for an hour looking for a space, something the self-driving car could also do).
      - tbabb 10y ago
        Right. And so my point is the expense and inconvenience of parking in cities is incentive for you to either (a) not buy a car, and instead use an on-demand (self-driving) rideshare service, or (b) buy a car, and recoup costs at little inconvenience by putting it into a self-driving rideshare pool. The end result is fewer cars owned by fewer people, but utilized much more fully, so the cars that do exist in cities spend more of their time driving and in-service, rather than sitting parked and empty for 98% of their lifetimes.
        emodendroket 10y ago
        But a self-driving car that can either find street parking or else drive to some suburban lot makes that incentive much weaker, not stronger?
        vidarh 10y ago

PinguTS 10y ago

The funny thing, some of this already exists these days. It is called ZipCar, Car2Go, or DriveNow. All of them suffer from the very same problem: service. It does not matter if a car is selfdriving or not. To be recognized as available by someone means a utilization of about 30% by the providing company. But a utilization of about 30% does not drive down costs. You still of costs for producing and servicing the vehicle, which is way higher than just the energy costs. Tesla has no experience in free floating vehilce fleets. Uber has no experience in such thing. ZipCar has. Car2Go has. Car2Go as an subsidary of Daimler even has experience in car production. Now think of that.

taysic 10y ago
ZipCar does not pick you up and drop you off at location. I can tell you as a Zip Car user, there are many issues that caused me to discontinue, none of which was service. 1 - the zip cars available to me are a few blocks away to walk which isn't convenient if I'm carrying something or lazy. 2 - high cost. Taking uber right now is so much cheaper. Imagine if cars were self-driving. Costs would plummet 3 - parking. This can be very hard depending on where I'm going 4 - I have to pay for the length of time I'm out, not for my ride. I also need to return the car when I'm done. These are the biggest pain points in my opinion. Also, not needing to drive myself is a huge bonus. The leverage of solving these pain points are huge, imo.
mattnewton 10y ago
As a zip car member, I wish it did all those things, but it is a far cry from the self-driving future GP is talking about. I'm also worried about tesla's market share, but more because I don't know if they can corner all the markets they are about to compete in: automotive manufacturing, batteries and set driving systems are all hard enough problems for an entire company. It's a lot to get right.
sean_appleby 10y ago
The ridesharing systems (like uber pool and lyft line) are meant to alleviate that utilization problem. Zipcar has no experience with the complex logistics automation work for ridesharing that Uber and Lyft are doing, nor do they have a large enough userbase to make that ridesharing system viable and competitive.

Spooky23 10y ago

This is a common pattern to electric and self-driving enthusiasts, but unfortunately it's the automotive equivalent of Wired articles about the internet circa 1996. Problems include: - Cost. All of the (limited) Tesla automation technologies cost more than my last car. - Liability. Who is liable for mishaps? As Uber has demonstrated accidents and traffic violations happen with automated tech. - Utility. The majority of users aren't high income people in SFO and NYC. We have parking, getting picked up is cool, but not high ROI. - Pool vs own. As we've seen with transportation services as varied as stagecoaches, cabs, railways, and airlines, service based transportation models aren't cheap. Service price is always demand driven, it will cost more when you need it. - Owning a car in the US is one of the greatest values available in any market. I can be at any point in the CONUS in <3 days for under $500 with most cars. I think self driving cars may put the bullet in some cabs for good after Uber and Lyft implode, and may bring train-like scale to intercity transit. But the fantasy being sold today is just that.

karpodiem 10y ago
Thank you, I've wanted to make a point similar to the one you've made but already tied it all together.
anko 10y ago
> Cost: We're not there yet, but not paying registration/insurance/repayments/garage space will make this economical in time - at first at least for second car owners > Liability: Insurance - I think automation will be safer i.e. less accidents > Utility: I think door to door driving without looking for parking is a pretty good perk > Pool vs. own: Both of these models will be competitive with each other, so in the end it won't matter plus there will be additional benefits Safety: Less drunk drivers on the road, less accidents from fatigue, etc. Cost: at a minimum, it will bring cab prices down Efficiency: Less traffic jams as autonomous systems won't slam on the brakes when they see a police car, etc. Smoother flowing traffic, higher legal road speeds if reaction time is shorter And then there are other non-car transport which will benefit: logicistics, mail, deliveries etc. Minibuses that could pick you up door to door through automated route planning etc.
- 10y ago

Tloewald 10y ago

> I think there are a lot of pretty good reasons why the vehicle market is going to change significantly in the next 15 years But not necessarily shrinking the market. The cost of mobility goes down, consumption will go up. How high? I'm going to guess absurdly high. The reason US cities are sprawling messes is that they were built as the cost of mobility dropped off a cliff (cars and trucks replaced horses). Go read Clifford Simak's "City". People will live in self driving cars and commute in their sleep. It's going to be nuts.