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While I agree that Waymo is in the lead, I disagree they're two orders of magnitude ahead of the competition. If you look at Cruise, they are clearly making si
by MegaButts 10y ago
While I agree that Waymo is in the lead, I disagree they're two orders of magnitude ahead of the competition. If you look at Cruise, they are clearly making significant progress each month. If you look at their last month available, they have 6 disengagements for 2284.35 miles, or 2.62 disengagements per 1,000 miles.
Waymo reports 0.2 disengagements per 1,000 miles, which is clearly better - but only by 1 order of magnitude. And if you look at how quickly Cruise is making progress, I'd suspect (by as much data as we can glean from these reports, which is limited) that Cruise will be roughly on par with Waymo in <2 years.
- mritun 10y ago> And if you look at how quickly Cruise is making progress, I'd suspect (by as much data as we can glean from these reports, which is limited) that Cruise will be roughly on par with Waymo in <2 years. Assuming Waymo is standing still. The last 20% take a lot longer than initial 80% in the machine learning business. The last 2% literally takes a decade.
- MegaButts 10y agoIf Waymo stands still, I suspect Cruise will be there in ~1 year. And right now Waymo is in the throes of a managerial clusterfuck, which is why most people left.