There is one problem with your analysis. The team that gets scored 'on' is the one that gets the ball for the kick-off. Since different teams get the initial a

There is one problem with your analysis. The team that gets scored 'on' is the one that gets the ball for the kick-off. Since different teams get the initial and half-time kick-offs, it boils down to which team is capable of scoring the most own-goals in the same (lengthy) amount of time. The second team has a huge advantage, because they win by scoring 4 less own-goals than the leading team.