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> Tesla is potentially a trillion dollar company A trillion dollars? For a niche/luxury car company? What fantasy is that based on? > it's biggest current hur

by Alupis 10y ago

> Tesla is potentially a trillion dollar company A trillion dollars? For a niche/luxury car company? What fantasy is that based on? > it's biggest current hurdle is getting it's production up to meet an enormous demand While enormous to Tesla, actual demand is pretty small compared to other car companies. It doesn't help that even the most "affordable" Tesla is far more expensive than the average competitor's EV or hybrid vehicle[1][2], let alone it's base price (not final sale price) starts off above the average new car purchase price (final sale, after upgrades, etc) for the entire industry[3]. There's a lot of hype around Tesla, but that doesn't mean they're going to take over the auto industry, let alone become larger than the largest auto makers around who produce "Everyday Joe" cars for the rest of the population. [1] http://evobsession.com/10-best-electric-cars/ http://evobsession.com/10-best-electric-cars/ [2] http://www.caranddriver.com/best-hybrid-electric-cars http://www.caranddriver.com/best-hybrid-electric-cars [3] http://mediaroom.kbb.com/new-car-transaction-prices-up-2-percent-march-2016 http://mediaroom.kbb.com/new-car-transaction-prices-up-2-per...

sillysaurus3 10y ago
If batteries reduce the demand for oil, oil's value will start to transfer to batteries.
- Alupis 10y ago
  > If batteries reduce the demand for oil That's a big IF. Also, it ignores the fact that every car manufacturer already has a plethora of fully electric, or hybrid models available (and they are, on average, far cheaper than the cheapest base model Tesla can offer), and the markets still don't buy them. This also ignores the fact that many companies make great batteries, and Tesla is only recently sitting down to that table. Why wouldn't Panasonic be that "trillion dollar" company? Or Sony? Or Fujitsu?
  - erikpukinskis 10y ago
    Put a probability on the IF and multiply it by the revenue of the oil companies and you've got a valuation for Tesla.

by Alupis 10y ago

sillysaurus3 10y ago

If batteries reduce the demand for oil, oil's value will start to transfer to batteries.

Alupis 10y ago
> If batteries reduce the demand for oil That's a big IF. Also, it ignores the fact that every car manufacturer already has a plethora of fully electric, or hybrid models available (and they are, on average, far cheaper than the cheapest base model Tesla can offer), and the markets still don't buy them. This also ignores the fact that many companies make great batteries, and Tesla is only recently sitting down to that table. Why wouldn't Panasonic be that "trillion dollar" company? Or Sony? Or Fujitsu?
- erikpukinskis 10y ago
  Put a probability on the IF and multiply it by the revenue of the oil companies and you've got a valuation for Tesla.