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I would agree with the market that Tesla has the potential to be far far larger than Ford should things go well. If they manage to get to 500000 cars and full
by andy_ppp 10y ago
I would agree with the market that Tesla has the potential to be far far larger than Ford should things go well. If they manage to get to 500000 cars and full automation within the next year, they'll be worth even more than their current market cap.
Remember that Tesla have by far the best dataset for building self driving cars and this is going to give them a huge time to market and/or safety advantage over their competition. If they launch an Uber clone as well (which they have implied they might) I think they could be able to replace a lot of car journeys with their service instead of paying drivers, something Uber's lofty valuation is entirely based upon.
- mcguire 10y agoAbsolutely! By 2027, all the vehicles on the road will be Teslas.
- erikpukinskis 10y agoI don't think so, but by 2027 poor people won't be able to afford to drive anything other than a Tesla. The per mile costs for ICE will dwarf electric. The per mile costs of car ownership will dwarf autonomous mobility services. And Tesla will own the biggest battery supply chain in the world, with the best economy of scale. Rich people will still buy classic cars and Germans will still buy ICE BMWs. The vast majority of daily commute hours will be split between Teslas and whichever other manufacturers who get off their butts before it's too late.
- Namrog84 10y agoI've never seen the acronym ICE used before. Internal combustion engine. I probably just don't know the correct lingo more commonly used in this context and comparison.
- nojvek 10y agoThis! Tesla's proposition is very risky but from their track record of what they've done with reusable rockets, I guess you can say execution is their strong point. Yes Elon will have crazy deadlines, but if you put a good buffer then eventually he'll deliver it.
- sixQuarks 10y agoElon Musk has said: "I would rather commit seppuku than fail" - seppuku being ritual suicide. The man who has executed the most impressive technological achievement in modern times (reusable rockets), said he would rather die than fail. I think it's crazy to be betting against this guy. your only chance is if he dies in the process.
- MarkMc 10y agoOne possible future is that Tesla execute perfectly but their stock still underperforms the market. In 20 years Tesla may produce more cars than Toyota. They may have self-driving AI that is safer than any other. They may provide more taxi rides than Uber. But the total market for new cars may be half what it is today because no-one will own cars in future.
- LordHumungous 10y ago>If they launch an Uber clone as well (which they have implied they might) Lol. Yes, the second most unprofitable tech company in the world should clone the first most unprofitable tech company. Why not.
- andy_ppp 10y agoBecause Uber's value is all based upon self driving cars, as I said in my comment.