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Ford is sitting on almost $16 billion cash. Tesla, like Amazon, burns through cash as fast as they can turn it into scalable future stuff. Whether you consider
by simonsarris 10y ago
Ford is sitting on almost $16 billion cash. Tesla, like Amazon, burns through cash as fast as they can turn it into scalable future stuff. Whether you consider this good or bad depends on your future outlook:
Being long Ford is making a bet that the future will look pretty much the same.
Being long Tesla is making a bet that the future will look different. (Plus the risks of believing that they can do what they say they can, and that their vision is more correct than not)
If you are a Ford investor and want Ford to be investing in the future, you should be ashamed of them for being either too scared or too stupid to know what to do with their piles of money. Then again, the largest carmakers in the US (incl. Ford) were making a loss just a few years ago, and unlike Tesla, they were making that loss while doing ZERO to invest for the future.
So maybe Ford should be scared.
Or maybe they should be pivoting faster so they don't return to not-making-a-profit, because unlike Tesla, they still aren't spending very much on the future, are they?
We can argue about whether or not Tesla has a good plan or a bad plan, but Ford has shown before that they more or less have "No plan." Their reliance of SUV profits almost killed them in the mid 2000's (and did mortally wound GM, only to be resurrected). Will Ford's reliance on the F-150 (or on ICE expertise while outsourcing most other things) do the same thing in the future?
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I've been holding Tesla for a long time. Currently I'm more optimistic about the company than when I bought it, which seemed fairly risky.
I think the room for growth and market expansion (Important Electric Things and energy future) is very large. I think trying to compute how the math will get there is a mistake, short of making sure that they are not going to run out of money.
Being long technology stocks is a strange game. If you're long IBM or AAPL right now, you're more or less betting that the future is going to look pretty much the same, just like with Ford. It's almost a misnomer to call them technology stocks.
There are only a handful of public companies you can bet on (Tesla and Amazon are probably the most obvious) that are really betting big on the future. The dividends of these will be unknown.
(This was part of a previous small discussion about the price of TSLA last night: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14018954 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14018954)
- mcguire 10y ago"Being long Tesla is making a bet that the future will look different." No. Being long Tesla is making a bet that the future will look like Tesla, that Tesla will be producing a very significant chunk of the vehicles on the road sometime in the reasonably near future. Tesla currently has plans to expand to produce 0.5 million vehicles per year in the 2018-2020 time frame; Ford currently produces 2.5 million vehicles in the US for ~15% of the market. Disclaimer: I'm on my second F-150 and third Ford vehicle.
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- marvin 10y agoWhat other publicly traded companies would you consider as making large investments in non-obvious future technology trends?
- stevenwoo 10y agoI don't own either Ford or Tesla stock directly and I'm not sure how accurate this assessment is, but Ford is probably investing the same amount or more as Waymo or Tesla in self driving car technology. It appears all of the large auto manufacturers are technically a little behind Waymo but are starting to catch up and are ahead in other areas of the total problem of getting self driving cars in production - it looks like none of the big US/euro brands is going to be satisfied with integrating something from Waymo. http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/navigant-research-leaderboard-report-automated-driving http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/navigant-research-l...
- RodericDay 10y ago"Being long Tesla is making a bet that the future will look different." This is funny to me. I think Tesla is selling more of the same: various big cars to car drivers who can't imagine a society without cars. It feels like "trickle-down environmentalism", and I don't have a very high opinion about the economic variant. A real radical vision of the future would be betting on train and bus companies or something wild like that.