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The tech doesn't have to replace the workers entirely, just improve their efficiency to the point that less humans are needed. Take supermarkets. What used to

The tech doesn't have to replace the workers entirely, just improve their efficiency to the point that less humans are needed. Take supermarkets. What used to be 10 checkout assistants serving 30 customers per hour each for a total throughput of 300 customers per hour, can now become 20 self checkout machines serving 15 customers per hour each, with 2 retrained checkout assistants to oversee 10 machines each and handle the edge cases. Same overall throughput. Each individual customers experience gets slightly worse (perhaps, although maybe the longer checkout time is offset by shorter queues?), but throughput stays the same, and staffing is reduced significantly. I'm seeing this right now in every large supermarket, and even a lot of smaller corner shop type ones. There's a whole range of service jobs that are vulnerable to this kind of 80% efficiency improvement that will drastically reduce the levels of staff needed. Restaurant wait staff can be 80% replaced by self ordering via app or tablet. Bar staff, coffee shop staff (you can already preorder Starbucks and pay via the app, the human just makes the drinks), fast food staff (ever seen an express lane), all the same, a machine could make each staff member able to handle many times more customers but automating only the most repetitive parts leaving the human to just handle the edge cases. They aren't talking about replacing all workers, just some of them. "The $35,000 robot can boost the number of items picked by a worker by 200 percent to 500 percent, Welty said, and six employees can handle work normally done by 20 to 25."

ghaff 10y ago
The use of self-service in supermarkets is pretty patchy though. Once you get beyond barcoded items, it's a PITA. And it's not even a great experience for a cartful of barcoded items. Around where I live, other than a Walmart Superstore, there's not a single grocery store that uses self-service. One chain even put it in and then took it out. Personally, I'd probably go out of my way to avoid a chain with self-service given the option. Oddly, it's the big box home improvement stores that are the biggest self-service retail users around where I live. Even though many items you buy there are at equally bad for self-service as grocery stores.
- SimonPStevens 10y ago
  > The use of self-service in supermarkets is pretty patchy though. That's kinda my point. The user experience is actually worse for many users. And it certainly doesn't handle all edge cases. It handles one specific case (of a customer with just a small number of small barcoded items) kind of acceptably, but slower than a human would. But it's still being used, and replacing staff by reducing the overall number of staff required despite not handling all situations very well at all. And this is the same mistake people make all the time when thinking about job automation. They say things like "I'm OK, my job could never be automated because a robot couldn't handle all the complex tasks I do like handling a customer complaint" but what they forget is that customer complaints is only 2% of their job. 80% is repetitive tasks that can be automated. So yeah, OK, one robot won't replace one person. But 10 robots and 1 person can replace 5 people. So now you have to reapply for your new job of robot supervisor/edge case handler, alongside your 4 other colleagues. And only one of you is going to get that job.

ghaff 10y ago

The use of self-service in supermarkets is pretty patchy though. Once you get beyond barcoded items, it's a PITA. And it's not even a great experience for a cartful of barcoded items. Around where I live, other than a Walmart Superstore, there's not a single grocery store that uses self-service. One chain even put it in and then took it out. Personally, I'd probably go out of my way to avoid a chain with self-service given the option. Oddly, it's the big box home improvement stores that are the biggest self-service retail users around where I live. Even though many items you buy there are at equally bad for self-service as grocery stores.

SimonPStevens 10y ago
> The use of self-service in supermarkets is pretty patchy though. That's kinda my point. The user experience is actually worse for many users. And it certainly doesn't handle all edge cases. It handles one specific case (of a customer with just a small number of small barcoded items) kind of acceptably, but slower than a human would. But it's still being used, and replacing staff by reducing the overall number of staff required despite not handling all situations very well at all. And this is the same mistake people make all the time when thinking about job automation. They say things like "I'm OK, my job could never be automated because a robot couldn't handle all the complex tasks I do like handling a customer complaint" but what they forget is that customer complaints is only 2% of their job. 80% is repetitive tasks that can be automated. So yeah, OK, one robot won't replace one person. But 10 robots and 1 person can replace 5 people. So now you have to reapply for your new job of robot supervisor/edge case handler, alongside your 4 other colleagues. And only one of you is going to get that job.