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As the mobile computing ecosystem matures it's becoming clear that it will mirror the PC dominated computing ecosystem. You have the major player (Microsoft/Win

As the mobile computing ecosystem matures it's becoming clear that it will mirror the PC dominated computing ecosystem. You have the major player (Microsoft/Windows in PC, Google/Android in mobile) occupying about 85% to 90% of total market share [0] while Apple/Mac/iOS will do well in the high end market and control about 10% to 15% share. iOS today controls about 20% to 25% of global market share but Android growth rates far outpace iPhone growth as Apple's first mover advantage continues to be diluted with time and smartphone commodification. There must be some fundamental dynamic at play which favors the 85%/15% market share duopoly. [0] https://www.netmarketshare.com/operating-system-market-share.aspx?qprid=10&qpcustomd=1 https://www.netmarketshare.com/operating-system-market-share...

diafygi 10y ago
So I guess that means we will start to see a <1% libre alternative pop up? FirefoxOS tried. Ubuntu tried. Definitely interested to see who will occupy this slot in the distribution. The hard part this time is all the closed source drivers. How did Linux solve that back in the 90s?
- digi_owl 10y ago
  It didn't...
- problems 10y ago
  > The hard part this time is all the closed source drivers. How did Linux solve that back in the 90s? It never did perfectly. It's about the same as it is on Android currently. All the basic stuff works but you need proprietary firmware for a few things like WiFi and cell radio. Some even have cell radio working. Replicant has done a good job doing this on Android devices, see http://redmine.replicant.us/projects/replicant/wiki/ReplicantStatus#Replicant-42 http://redmine.replicant.us/projects/replicant/wiki/Replican... looks like they even have cell working on some Samsung devices. If mostly-open is good enough though, flashing a stock AOSP build or LineageOS without GApps will get you there, you can install software from sources like F-Droid too.
psy-q 10y ago
I always hoped for a more 30%/30%/30%/10% distribution, with two big proprietary players, one FOSS one and a bunch of other more experimental or niche systems. Guess that hasn't happened so far. The only place in technology where I remember three big and roughly equally powerful players was the console market, but only for a while. Would be interesting to find out details about these dynamics.
- sowbug 10y ago
  Developers seem to be willing to support two competitive platforms, but when there are three or more, they throw up their hands and support just the top one, or maybe the top two. Source: my own intuition.
  - digi_owl 10y ago
    It depends on there being strong cross-platform development tools or not. Back in the early days of the micro-computer, many games used a virtual machine of sorts. The game logic was implemented in VM bytecode and then the VM engine was the only thing that needed porting between systems. This was to a greater or lesser degree aided by the limited hardware of the time, and that said computers were single task more often than not.
    - E6300 10y ago
      This intrigues me, as it clashes with everything I know about how classic game software was designed. Around what decade are we talking about? Can you name one or two examples of games that were designed like this?
      - pjmlp 10y ago
        Usually only adventure games, and point and click ones did that. Think of games like Maniac Mansion or adventure writing software like PAWS.
        10y ago
JBReefer 10y ago
This sort of matches Duverger's Law[0], which holds that given a particular set of constraints that sound a lot like the smart phone market, you will always end up with 2 players/political parties. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duverger%27s_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duverger%27s_law
vetinari 10y ago
We are much further, already. iOS today only controls 10-15% of global market share.

diafygi 10y ago

So I guess that means we will start to see a <1% libre alternative pop up? FirefoxOS tried. Ubuntu tried. Definitely interested to see who will occupy this slot in the distribution. The hard part this time is all the closed source drivers. How did Linux solve that back in the 90s?

digi_owl 10y ago
It didn't...
problems 10y ago
> The hard part this time is all the closed source drivers. How did Linux solve that back in the 90s? It never did perfectly. It's about the same as it is on Android currently. All the basic stuff works but you need proprietary firmware for a few things like WiFi and cell radio. Some even have cell radio working. Replicant has done a good job doing this on Android devices, see http://redmine.replicant.us/projects/replicant/wiki/ReplicantStatus#Replicant-42 http://redmine.replicant.us/projects/replicant/wiki/Replican... looks like they even have cell working on some Samsung devices. If mostly-open is good enough though, flashing a stock AOSP build or LineageOS without GApps will get you there, you can install software from sources like F-Droid too.

psy-q 10y ago

I always hoped for a more 30%/30%/30%/10% distribution, with two big proprietary players, one FOSS one and a bunch of other more experimental or niche systems. Guess that hasn't happened so far. The only place in technology where I remember three big and roughly equally powerful players was the console market, but only for a while. Would be interesting to find out details about these dynamics.

sowbug 10y ago
Developers seem to be willing to support two competitive platforms, but when there are three or more, they throw up their hands and support just the top one, or maybe the top two. Source: my own intuition.
- digi_owl 10y ago
  It depends on there being strong cross-platform development tools or not. Back in the early days of the micro-computer, many games used a virtual machine of sorts. The game logic was implemented in VM bytecode and then the VM engine was the only thing that needed porting between systems. This was to a greater or lesser degree aided by the limited hardware of the time, and that said computers were single task more often than not.
  - E6300 10y ago
    This intrigues me, as it clashes with everything I know about how classic game software was designed. Around what decade are we talking about? Can you name one or two examples of games that were designed like this?
    - pjmlp 10y ago
      Usually only adventure games, and point and click ones did that. Think of games like Maniac Mansion or adventure writing software like PAWS.
      - 10y ago

JBReefer 10y ago

This sort of matches Duverger's Law[0], which holds that given a particular set of constraints that sound a lot like the smart phone market, you will always end up with 2 players/political parties. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duverger%27s_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duverger%27s_law

vetinari 10y ago

We are much further, already. iOS today only controls 10-15% of global market share.