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On Tesla growing to millions of cars per year: at those volumes, most likely the government won't give subsidies anymore. So this means a car needs to be priced
by petra 10y ago
On Tesla growing to millions of cars per year: at those volumes, most likely the government won't give subsidies anymore. So this means a car needs to be priced at the area of $20K( from $40k today) for a 200 miles range, and that means batteries below $100/kwh.
Whether this is possible with Tesla's li-ion is a big question, some predictions i saw talk about $150/kwh as the limit, graph[1], from this nature article[2].
On the other hand, musk is predicting they will be below $100/kwh in the 2020's[3] - but that doesn't sound like a really reliable source.
Also, there are possibly other battery chemistries, like li-sulfur , which could probably reach $100/kwh. Assuming it works, will it stay the giga factory(will it even fit?) with exclusivity for Tesla cars ? or more likely be available to more companies(with many new giga factories that will become established) - leading to a great situation, but maybe not a happy one for Tesla stock owners ?
[1]http://energypost.eu/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Schalk-Cloete-figure-1.png http://energypost.eu/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Schalk-Cloet...
[2]http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n4/full/nclimate2564.html?WT.ec_id=NCLIMATE-201504 http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n4/full/nclimate25...
[3]https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/how-soon-can-tesla-get-battery-cell-costs-below-100-kilowatt-hour https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/how-soon-can-tesla-get...
- Retric 10y ago60kwh * 150$ / kWh = 9000$. Also, electric cars can be more expencive to buy as they are much cheaper to operate as many people lease making it a pure cost per month calculation.