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Tesla Ships 25,000 Vehicles in First Quarter, Beating Estimates
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- SticksAndBreaks 10y agoI misread, and for a moment expected Giant Ships, transporting energy via pumped empty baphyspheres from offshore solarfarms.
- JonRB 10y agoSee also https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14018765 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14018765
- petewailes 10y agoTo put this into context, BMW, Audi and Mercedes moved around 200k each. Porsche managed about 60k. Jaguar Land Rover did around 130k. Zero to 25k is solid growth, but they're still a long way from bring equal, let alone dominant and profitable, which feels like where people think they'll be in the future.
- martin_bech 10y agoTo put that into context, most of those cars are not Full Size luxury sedans. Tesla only has 2 models right now, and completely dominates the fullsize luxury space. http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2017/01/usa-december-2016-large-luxury-car-sales-stats.html http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2017/01/usa-december-2016-large...
- oblio 10y agoHmm... you've linked a report with data only for the US for the other manufacturers, while, as far as I can see, Tesla's report is for global sales. I doubt Tesla dominates anything regarding global sales, at this moment :)
- parhurs 10y agoThe link does have estimates for Tesla U.S. sales in December 2016. Tesla: 2400 (WSJ) to 5300 (hybridcars.com) compared to the "class leading" Mercedes-Benz S-Class: 1494. It does seem Tesla is dominating in this class (luxury cars). Figures for the whole year are 26,525 - 29,156 (Tesla) vs. 18,803 (Mercedes-Benz S-Class).
- jacquesm 10y agoI really don't see Tesla to be even close to an S-Class, totally different market.
- raisedbyninjas 10y agoDrivetrain aside, I think the E-class would compare favorably to the model S for many people. This comparison is similar to the Apple computers sales numbers at least from the Jobs days. They would claim to set sales records, but only had a 4 model lineup when their competition would have 6 models just in their SOHO lineup.
- petewailes 10y agoI'm willing to go out on a limb and say the S Class and the Model S aren't in the same category. The E would be closer, but given the mindset behind purchasing each, I'm not certain there is a competitor to the Model S. There's no equivalent to "buying a Tesla" for another brand, which is a lot of why you buy one. The picture gets more interesting when you look outside the US, where they sell about 15/20% of the E class, BMW 5 series, Audi A4 and other similar cars, which are a much closer match to a Tesla.
- votingprawn 10y agoWhilst I like and appreciate the technology in the Model S, I too would struggle to class them as luxury along side the S class. I genuinely find the fit, finish, and comfort (cabin noise in particular - thank you double glazing!) in my 20 year old S Class to be better. The E-class feels a much better comparison to me.
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- sf_rob 10y agoThis is also an unfair comparison, since it's unclear how inelastic demand is for full size luxury sedans vs mid size luxury sedans. I'd bet that if BMW stopped selling the 1-4 series, a decent chunk of their followers would buy a 5+ series. Likewise, many people buy a Model S because they want a Tesla and would buy a 3 if it were available.
- breeze_em_out 10y ago"To put this into context, here are some numbers that describe completely different products from completely different companies." Exactly what context is this supposed to be?
- gutnor 10y agoTesla stock is speculative. You can't really compare Tesla to its specific market slice without losing much of the big picture. The car market is a huge market, so there is a lot of room for Tesla to grow. Tesla is at a junction point right now. It is a strong player on the Luxury segment (eg: Porsche territory), and they seem to be going for the Premium segment (eg: BMW territory) which is what their valuation expect it to go. It looks like the natural way to go, especially considering the investment in SuperCharger network. Except when you consider the scale of that market. Tesla would need to be able to scale by an order of magnitude (think dealer and garage network too) and a huge chunk of those purchases are fleet purchases. Once the competition enter the premium electric market ( all the premium brand have a 2020 target date, which of course means potentially nothing ), Tesla will need to be ready to have a new generation of all its car ready and be ready to do refreshes on a regular basis. Even that context is not the full context. Automatic driving is coming which will change the relationship of people to car owning. Tesla is a growth company, if you don't think they can go bigger you should short them.
- emergencevector 10y agobe able to scale by an order of magnitude (think dealer and garage network too) I hope they can do this without a dealer network.
- gutnor 10y agoThey will need a network of places to buy and repair. There are something like 15 showrooms in the whole of UK, half of them in London. 7 Service Centers. A then Tesla.com lists the BlueWater as a showroom. It had 2 cars last time I was there, both in the same colour. That's not nearly enough to sell a popular car in the premium segment. note: I understand that Dealer is something special in the US. I use the term liberally to mean "Some places that sells Tesla car". I believe that the hate of Dealer in the US is not so fundamental that they would buy a 30K car online only. Hell Apple is doing great with Apple Store with the opposite approach and nothing they sell is close to the same level of financial commitment.
- bmwfanboy 10y agoActually BMW, Audi and Mercedes are selling around 150k-200k vehicles monthly, not quarterly. For Q3 2016 BMW sold 583.499 vehicles. (source: https://www.bmwgroup.com/content/dam/bmw-group-websites/bmwgroup_com/ir/downloads/en/2016/quartalsbericht/Q3_2016_BMW_Group_en_Online.pdf https://www.bmwgroup.com/content/dam/bmw-group-websites/bmwg...)
- csomar 10y agoUsername checks out. But that looks to me like Tesla still have "yuge" room for growth.
- skdotdan 10y agoAs a company, Tesla would have interest in focusing on high-end cars (with high margins). But, on the other hand, their vision implies making Tesla cars affordable.
- sametmax 10y agoIt's a limited market. Once all the rich people have their tesla, they won't buy many more because: - they already have one and want another toy - it's not trendy anymore since everybody has it The ideal move would be to create separate models. Affordable ones to keep Tesla afloat. Luxury ones (with a very distinct design) to keep the brand PR on top.
- joatmon-snoo 10y agoSo cars with doors that open like this? https://youtu.be/_ih1ptOguaM?t=2m2s https://youtu.be/_ih1ptOguaM?t=2m2s
- sametmax 10y agoYeah, something to keep pieces of the pie to come down the pipe. A pie piper if you wish.
- Proven 10y agoAlso, because in many cases you can't get subsidized by the government for the second car.
- acchow 10y agoDisagree. Tesla will make far more money reshaping an industry than selling luxury vehicles.
- coralreef 10y agoI've read the hypothesis that Tesla is a battery company, thus is more interested in supplying other automakers with is technologies.
- s3nnyy 10y agoWhat does HN think: Does it now make sense to invest in tesla or is the stock already inflated?
- gizmo 10y agoThose two things aren't contradictory. A stock can be inflated for 20 years and provide great returns to investors during that period. The best investments are in stocks that are growing quickly and are valued at a low multiple of earnings. There are much better investment opportunities out there than Tesla. People invest in Tesla because they're inspired by Elon Musk or because they regret not having invested earlier on. You shouldn't make investment decisions based on those emotions. If you want to invest in the future of cars I think you'll get much better returns investing in Magna Int'l and NVIDIA.
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- Proven 10y agoNo, it's an unethical company that greatly relies on government subsidies in the US and abroad, and the share price is ludicrous. Additionally it creates products that pollute more than their non subsidized competitors.
- marvin 10y agoIt's a super volatile stock and very expensively priced. The current stock price assumes a successful Model 3 launch, and also growth beyond the Model 3 in the shape of new models, much greater market share and considerable likelihood of success with battery pack sales and solar installations. Tesla's current market cap is equal to Ford's, so a bull scenario would require Tesla to operate at higher margins, and/or higher total market-share, relative to the competition. Possibly combined one or more of the biggest traditional auto manufacturers fumbling the transition to electric and going under. (And obviously, a central thesis is that most people will want an electric rather than a combustion engine-powered vehicle in 5-10 years). On the other hand, in the best-case scenario Tesla has huge room to grow. The 4 largest auto manufacturers sell on the order of 10 million vehicles per year, to Tesla's 100.000. Note that if Tesla were to grow production this much, it would have to happen either with favorable capital raise terms, requiring less capital than is generally understood, or by having very high margins and reinvesting very aggressively. Tesla also has ambitions to become a leading energy supplier, under the thesis that solar installations will not be a commodity, but a product where superior user experience and system integration will be in demand. The bear case for this is that demand for solar installations will be limited to the cheapest supplier slapping the cheapest panels on a roof and calling it a day, or that a well-integrated solar system will be so simple to design that many companies will do it. We don't have the answer here yet, since this market is not mature. It also hinges on solar being at a tipping point where it is poised to displace a large amount of fossil power generation due to rapidly decreasing costs in cell and battery storage. Tl;dr: you wouldn't invest in Tesla today unless you have a very big risk appetite and also believe that the transportation and consumer energy landscape will look very different in 10 years.
- rodionos 10y ago> The delivery figure is a preliminary number that may change slightly in May when the company reports earnings for the period. > The delivery count only includes a car if it’s transferred to the customer and all paperwork is correct. I wonder, how can these two statements be reconciled? If the car is delivered, then the total number cannot be preliminary?