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You admit that you don't know what the actual probabilities are. Or you admit you have an extremely low confidence in your estimate of the probabilities.
by argonaut 10y ago
You admit that you don't know what the actual probabilities are. Or you admit you have an extremely low confidence in your estimate of the probabilities.
- nbouscal 10y agoHave you read any of the estimates? Basically every expert gives a huge confidence interval, as do most of the people actively working on AI risk.
- argonaut 10y agoSaying you are 95% confident AGI will come between 50-100 years (a "huge" confidence interval), is still far too confident.
- nbouscal 10y agoI don't recall seeing 95% confidence intervals that narrow. Even the 90% confidence intervals I see are usually like 5-150 or something. (Also it would be super weird to me if the lower bound of someone's 95%CI was 50.)