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The replaced jobs by robots are much more than the added jobs that repair or make robots.

WalterBright 10y ago
True, but the farm labor displaced by the mechanization of agriculture also did not all go into making farm machinery. They went into entire new industries that were made possible by mechanization. How many of you are engaged in providing a product or service that was inconceivable in 1800? I couldn't even describe what I do to an 1800 era person. I.e. there isn't a fixed amount of work to be done.
- passthefist 10y ago
  My concern isn't that there will be widespread unemployment, it's more that there will be a higher barrier of entry to the labor market and/or high skill workers will displace low skill workers. Let's say that 20% of entry level or unskilled labor jobs are replaced by automation, but an equal amount of skilled labor or knowledge oriented jobs are created. Basically, jobs that require training or experience. Well, training and experience aren't free. You can't just show up and start welding things. There's apprenticeships or union schools or maybe you're lucky enough know someone with a welding kit, but you need to learn how to weld first. It's not entirely one of those artificial market barriers. Bad welds can create structural integrity issues and can be difficult to fix so they've got to be done right the first time. It's skilled labor, and skills take time to acquire. These newly created jobs require some kind of capital to access. Could be just money to pay for education, or could be social capital of knowing the right people, or time spent learning the skill, but you're not gonna show up for the job. There's plenty of reasons why someone would have trouble finding that capital. Maybe they work to help support the family and don't have the time for education. There could be any number of reasons though that getting new skills is difficult, and there's no mail room for you to start in and work your way up to management. What happens when you can't afford bootstraps? Also, as industries change or new industries are created, this can make it harder to transition to other industries if your skills don't transfer. You better have some savings or safety net while you retrain for a new industry if yours is collapsing. So, while I'm not sold that we'll have widespread unemployment, but I think it's more likely that social mobility takes a hit and the inequality gap widens. There's some evidence that this is already happening and while more people are graduating the number of jobs requiring those degrees isn't increasing as fast, so higher skilled workers are pushing lower skilled workers down the ladder. Not to mention that things are changing faster and faster (that exponential innovation curve), so changes that could wait for a new generation will need to be addressed sooner. http://www.nber.org/papers/w18901.pdf http://www.nber.org/papers/w18901.pdf
- socmag 10y ago
  Retraining becomes a lot harder when the new bar is "become a big data scientist". I mean you mentioned the print workers who were hand setting typeface until quite recently. What did they do after their industry collapsed. Probably a lot of them became taxi drivers or took on other "equivalent" labor centric endeavors. There might not be a fixed amount of work to go around, but there certainly is a fixed amount of vocations that people are willing to pay money for, and that displaced workers can reasonably be expected to move into... And that bell curve does appear to be being squeezed tremendously.

True, but the farm labor displaced by the mechanization of agriculture also did not all go into making farm machinery. They went into entire new industries that were made possible by mechanization. How many of you are engaged in providing a product or service that was inconceivable in 1800? I couldn't even describe what I do to an 1800 era person. I.e. there isn't a fixed amount of work to be done.

passthefist 10y ago
My concern isn't that there will be widespread unemployment, it's more that there will be a higher barrier of entry to the labor market and/or high skill workers will displace low skill workers. Let's say that 20% of entry level or unskilled labor jobs are replaced by automation, but an equal amount of skilled labor or knowledge oriented jobs are created. Basically, jobs that require training or experience. Well, training and experience aren't free. You can't just show up and start welding things. There's apprenticeships or union schools or maybe you're lucky enough know someone with a welding kit, but you need to learn how to weld first. It's not entirely one of those artificial market barriers. Bad welds can create structural integrity issues and can be difficult to fix so they've got to be done right the first time. It's skilled labor, and skills take time to acquire. These newly created jobs require some kind of capital to access. Could be just money to pay for education, or could be social capital of knowing the right people, or time spent learning the skill, but you're not gonna show up for the job. There's plenty of reasons why someone would have trouble finding that capital. Maybe they work to help support the family and don't have the time for education. There could be any number of reasons though that getting new skills is difficult, and there's no mail room for you to start in and work your way up to management. What happens when you can't afford bootstraps? Also, as industries change or new industries are created, this can make it harder to transition to other industries if your skills don't transfer. You better have some savings or safety net while you retrain for a new industry if yours is collapsing. So, while I'm not sold that we'll have widespread unemployment, but I think it's more likely that social mobility takes a hit and the inequality gap widens. There's some evidence that this is already happening and while more people are graduating the number of jobs requiring those degrees isn't increasing as fast, so higher skilled workers are pushing lower skilled workers down the ladder. Not to mention that things are changing faster and faster (that exponential innovation curve), so changes that could wait for a new generation will need to be addressed sooner. http://www.nber.org/papers/w18901.pdf http://www.nber.org/papers/w18901.pdf
socmag 10y ago
Retraining becomes a lot harder when the new bar is "become a big data scientist". I mean you mentioned the print workers who were hand setting typeface until quite recently. What did they do after their industry collapsed. Probably a lot of them became taxi drivers or took on other "equivalent" labor centric endeavors. There might not be a fixed amount of work to go around, but there certainly is a fixed amount of vocations that people are willing to pay money for, and that displaced workers can reasonably be expected to move into... And that bell curve does appear to be being squeezed tremendously.