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The number of newly graduated college students per year has increased approximately 50% in the last fifteen years. A reduction in average wages would be expecte

The number of newly graduated college students per year has increased approximately 50% in the last fifteen years. A reduction in average wages would be expected from supply and demand alone. However, I don't think an "oversupply" is the correct explanation. At least in the technical, engineering, and manufacturing fields that I know, companies are desperate for more good people. And this is even as STEM graduation rates are at an all time high. Looking at it from the the graduate's side, every single clueful person I know that graduated in the last five years is employed, and quickly so. How can can average wages be going down, even demand increases? The key is that we are talking "average wages". College graduates in any field are not a uniform bunch. The number of new competent individuals graduated seems to be holding steady, while around them grow an increasing sea of people who don't show up for work, or have a clue about getting actual work done in their profession.

alphonsegaston 10y ago
>How can these apparently conflicting facts be true? The problem is that many of the people who graduate do not have either the technical skills or the personal skills to make a positive enough contribution to be hired. Isn't this simply a Just World fallacy? Outside of the simulations of economists, I know of no example where the labor market operates with this degree of narrative and rationality.
wlesieutre 10y ago
> companies are desperate for more good people Not desperate enough to give the recent college grads a raise, apparently
- madengr 10y ago
  Maybe cause there are not many good ones. It used to be, in engineering school, 2/3 flunked out or changed majors. Even with the remaining 1/3, there are the C/D students. I'd only want to hire the A/B students. I think people are figuring out engineering is a lot tougher than the "making stuff".
  - killjoywashere 10y ago
    How about because there are more women in college, and they undercompete on compensation? This would predictably drive average compensation down. Maybe men should be encouraging women to compete more aggressively on salary?
    - bigtimeidiot 10y ago
      >Maybe men should be encouraging women to compete more aggressively on salary? To bring up the average salary? Does that matter to any individual?
      - sdflkd 10y ago
        Yes, because it affects your offers when they say they pay "market rate".
- TheAdamAndChe 10y ago
  It's all supply and demand. Supply of graduates is up massively, demand is down due to outsourcing and centralization of the good jobs. This creates falling wages for graduates, who have to take what they can get because of their student loans.
madengr 10y ago
Yep, you nailed it. Number going up; quality number holding steady. Probably people going into it for $ with no passion for it.
- killjoywashere 10y ago
  No. I think the more obvious answer is women undercompete on salary.
- TheAdamAndChe 10y ago
  It's hard to be passionate when wages are going down, jobs are getting concentrated to a handful of urban centers, cost of living(especially in housing) is going up like crazy, and companies work you as much as you can and show no loyalty, all while the profits of those companies are larger than ever. Oh yeah, and the fact that you start out your career $40k-$100k in debt to get a piece of paper because middle class jobs have been outsourced kind of puts a damper on things. My generation's apathy doesn't come from nothing.
- vkou 10y ago
  So, when people get a master's degree in something they are passionate about, like Medieval history, they are idiots who should go into STEM (Actually, TE, but I digress). When those people go into STEM, they are fools for pursuing a field they aren't passionate in. When they don't go to school, and can't get any jobs, because they all require bachelors degrees, they are lazy, and unmotivated. What exactly is an 18-year old do?
cgrubb 10y ago
Saturation or oversupply seem possible. Number of bachelors degrees awarded in 2015 was 14% higher than in 2010, but US population increased only 3% during this time. https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_322.10.asp https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_322.10.a... http://www.multpl.com/united-states-population/table http://www.multpl.com/united-states-population/table

alphonsegaston 10y ago

>How can these apparently conflicting facts be true? The problem is that many of the people who graduate do not have either the technical skills or the personal skills to make a positive enough contribution to be hired. Isn't this simply a Just World fallacy? Outside of the simulations of economists, I know of no example where the labor market operates with this degree of narrative and rationality.

wlesieutre 10y ago

> companies are desperate for more good people Not desperate enough to give the recent college grads a raise, apparently

madengr 10y ago
Maybe cause there are not many good ones. It used to be, in engineering school, 2/3 flunked out or changed majors. Even with the remaining 1/3, there are the C/D students. I'd only want to hire the A/B students. I think people are figuring out engineering is a lot tougher than the "making stuff".
- killjoywashere 10y ago
  How about because there are more women in college, and they undercompete on compensation? This would predictably drive average compensation down. Maybe men should be encouraging women to compete more aggressively on salary?
  - bigtimeidiot 10y ago
    >Maybe men should be encouraging women to compete more aggressively on salary? To bring up the average salary? Does that matter to any individual?
    - sdflkd 10y ago
      Yes, because it affects your offers when they say they pay "market rate".
TheAdamAndChe 10y ago
It's all supply and demand. Supply of graduates is up massively, demand is down due to outsourcing and centralization of the good jobs. This creates falling wages for graduates, who have to take what they can get because of their student loans.

madengr 10y ago

Yep, you nailed it. Number going up; quality number holding steady. Probably people going into it for $ with no passion for it.

killjoywashere 10y ago
No. I think the more obvious answer is women undercompete on salary.
TheAdamAndChe 10y ago
It's hard to be passionate when wages are going down, jobs are getting concentrated to a handful of urban centers, cost of living(especially in housing) is going up like crazy, and companies work you as much as you can and show no loyalty, all while the profits of those companies are larger than ever. Oh yeah, and the fact that you start out your career $40k-$100k in debt to get a piece of paper because middle class jobs have been outsourced kind of puts a damper on things. My generation's apathy doesn't come from nothing.
vkou 10y ago
So, when people get a master's degree in something they are passionate about, like Medieval history, they are idiots who should go into STEM (Actually, TE, but I digress). When those people go into STEM, they are fools for pursuing a field they aren't passionate in. When they don't go to school, and can't get any jobs, because they all require bachelors degrees, they are lazy, and unmotivated. What exactly is an 18-year old do?

cgrubb 10y ago

Saturation or oversupply seem possible. Number of bachelors degrees awarded in 2015 was 14% higher than in 2010, but US population increased only 3% during this time. https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_322.10.asp https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_322.10.a... http://www.multpl.com/united-states-population/table http://www.multpl.com/united-states-population/table