4 ms·

I honestly don't think they'll _have_ the chance to enjoy the margins. There will likely be a lot more competition in the future. The Chinese, Russians, Indian

I honestly don't think they'll _have_ the chance to enjoy the margins. There will likely be a lot more competition in the future. The Chinese, Russians, Indians, blue origin, vector space systems, and United Launch Alliance finally getting their shit together, trying to do a redesign to better compete.

jessaustin 10y ago
One could believe the Russians could match this achievement, with enough development effort, if they chose to make that effort, which they won't. All of the other parties you list have many challenges to meet before they attempt to land their rockets on tails of flame.
- kilroy123 10y ago
  I agree it's unlikely. However, they did privatize Roscosmos, so who knows. They might get their shit together.
qaq 10y ago
Russians no chance the degree of corruption makes any serious project a guaranteed failure
- PhasmaFelis 10y ago
  You're underestimating Russia ridiculously.
  - qaq 10y ago
    Would you care to provide an example to the contrary? Look at Rosnano, Scolocovo or any other multi-billion dollar project with 0 ROI.
    - PhasmaFelis 10y ago
      I don't doubt that Russia is swimming in corruption and that it makes a lot of things more difficult. But to say that they're incapable of a major engineering project, even if Putin takes a personal interest? I think you'll need to justify that.
      - qaq 10y ago
        Well if you are aware of a major successful project bring an example. It would be hard to argue that Putin is not personally interested in any of the major military projects yet from Armata to fighter jets that even long term customers like India are abandoning due to horrible quality does not look like his personal interest helps much.
ncallaway 10y ago
Certainly in the long term they won't be able to enjoy their margins. However, they are already one of the lowest cost launch providers available at the moment. Others have work to do just to catch up with SpaceX today. And _nobody_ is just around the corner on reusability. I don't know of any other provider that will have a reusable launch in the next 3 years. Even then, those other providers will just be dipping their toes in reusability. I suspect, if reusability starts going well for them SpaceX will have 4-6 years to enjoy the benefits of being the only major provider on the market with a reusable first stage booster. It won't last forever, but there are some good times coming up for them in the near-term if they can keep things running smoothly.
- di4na 10y ago
  Under 5 years, Ariane VI could do it probably. 3 years, i don't think so.
- marktangotango 10y ago
  The stakes are colossal too. Ultimately we're talking about owning transport infrastructure for the solar system. I think Bezos see's it this way too. Musk is all about settling gravity wells, while Bezo's is about O'Neil type space colonies. Interesting dichotomy.

jessaustin 10y ago

One could believe the Russians could match this achievement, with enough development effort, if they chose to make that effort, which they won't. All of the other parties you list have many challenges to meet before they attempt to land their rockets on tails of flame.

kilroy123 10y ago
I agree it's unlikely. However, they did privatize Roscosmos, so who knows. They might get their shit together.

qaq 10y ago

Russians no chance the degree of corruption makes any serious project a guaranteed failure

PhasmaFelis 10y ago
You're underestimating Russia ridiculously.
- qaq 10y ago
  Would you care to provide an example to the contrary? Look at Rosnano, Scolocovo or any other multi-billion dollar project with 0 ROI.
  - PhasmaFelis 10y ago
    I don't doubt that Russia is swimming in corruption and that it makes a lot of things more difficult. But to say that they're incapable of a major engineering project, even if Putin takes a personal interest? I think you'll need to justify that.
    - qaq 10y ago
      Well if you are aware of a major successful project bring an example. It would be hard to argue that Putin is not personally interested in any of the major military projects yet from Armata to fighter jets that even long term customers like India are abandoning due to horrible quality does not look like his personal interest helps much.

ncallaway 10y ago

Certainly in the long term they won't be able to enjoy their margins. However, they are already one of the lowest cost launch providers available at the moment. Others have work to do just to catch up with SpaceX today. And _nobody_ is just around the corner on reusability. I don't know of any other provider that will have a reusable launch in the next 3 years. Even then, those other providers will just be dipping their toes in reusability. I suspect, if reusability starts going well for them SpaceX will have 4-6 years to enjoy the benefits of being the only major provider on the market with a reusable first stage booster. It won't last forever, but there are some good times coming up for them in the near-term if they can keep things running smoothly.

di4na 10y ago
Under 5 years, Ariane VI could do it probably. 3 years, i don't think so.
marktangotango 10y ago
The stakes are colossal too. Ultimately we're talking about owning transport infrastructure for the solar system. I think Bezos see's it this way too. Musk is all about settling gravity wells, while Bezo's is about O'Neil type space colonies. Interesting dichotomy.