I agree with you: everyone else will be playing catch-up, probably for a decade. But what I mean is say I have a payload I want to launch. I go to spaceX and

I agree with you: everyone else will be playing catch-up, probably for a decade. But what I mean is say I have a payload I want to launch. I go to spaceX and they say they can put my payload on their manifest for 2019 for $60 million. I go to another provider and they say they can get me up into orbit in 2018 for $120 million. If I'm a government and don't care so much about the cost, but do care about getting my payload into space, I'll go with the 2018 date. So, there will still be other non-reusable providers out there. For example, European governments want to keep Ariane around regardless of the cost to keep the launch capability around (for national security issues).