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Regarding pollution, Jevon's paradox comes to mind. Electric cars still pollute — just less. But the increased efficiency and decreased cost will drive up use:
by stouset 10y ago
Regarding pollution, Jevon's paradox comes to mind. Electric cars still pollute — just less.
But the increased efficiency and decreased cost will drive up use: more people will be willing to live further away from jobs, more people take long car trips knowing they don't need to be awake behind the wheel the whole way, and more people (the young and elderly) will be able to use cars.
Is it totally unrealistic to expect that the net of these two advancements is an increase, or at least not a decrease, in carbon emissions? This is a genuine question — I haven't done the math.
I'm also conveniently ignoring the inevitable existence of automated gasoline-powered cars, which I'm not convinced will be an insignificant fraction of the market.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox
- mikeash 10y agoEVs still pollute, for now. How long will that remain true? One way or another, we need to greatly reduce emissions from electrical generation. EVs should help a lot with this, both by being a relatively flexible load and by helping to push energy storage technology. It seems like it comes down to this: if we can get transportation cleaned up, then having more of it is good. If we can't, we're screwed regardless. Either way, autonomy doesn't change the larger outcome much.