Seems like the key number here is the 1% chance of exit. If you really think the odds are that bad -- and I'm not saying you're wrong! -- then there isn't an o

Seems like the key number here is the 1% chance of exit. If you really think the odds are that bad -- and I'm not saying you're wrong! -- then there isn't an offer they can make you that you'll take. They'd have to convince you that the odds are at least 5%, and probably higher, before there's a basis for a deal. Averaged over all startups, of course, 1% is a reasonable estimate (might even be high). So another way to put this is, a savvy top developer just isn't going to join an average startup, period. They'll have to be persuaded that the opportunity is an extraordinary one. The bulk of startups will have to make do with less-experienced developers. This is why pretty much every startup now needs a technical co-founder.