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Why should things that can't be created by automation become more scarce hence more rare? A cleaning lady is more likely to be a job than a radiologist for lon

Why should things that can't be created by automation become more scarce hence more rare? A cleaning lady is more likely to be a job than a radiologist for longer time as cleaning is actually using almost the entire human spectrum of abilities while radiologist primarily utilizes two. That doesn't make cleaning more scarce or rare and more expensive it just means there is going to be more people who fight to get the job.

DanielBMarkham 10y ago
People want things they can't have. The economy is not driven by humans logically picking just the basic resources they need for survival. It was never like that.
- ThomPete 10y ago
  What does that have to do with automation though? It's like that today. Thats not the discussion that we are having around automation.
  - DanielBMarkham 10y ago
    The only thing that automation does is decrease the cost of things you can have towards zero. Everything else is the same. It used to be that fresh fruits were rare, sometimes even priceless. A huge number of people were required to grow, tend, harvest, transport, and sell fruit, especially in the off-months. That's all automated now. So the price of fresh fruit is tending towards zero. All of those people are not that doing that any more. Those people are still working, just not in jobs that are as heavily automated. There will always be something you cannot automate. Because you can't, it will be expensive. Because it is expensive, people will want it. It is not logical, but it is the way our species operates. So people do stuff, other people like it, then it's automated, then they find other stuff to do that's harder to automate. If your thesis is that there is some sort of universal automation coming? Maybe 300-500 years out, when the Great Singularity occurs (because these two events are the same thing). But no time soon. I will grant you that we currently have no freaking idea of what the economy in 2050 will look like. I believe this is the cool part of being mortal in our age -- things are always so goddamned different between when you're born and when you die.
    - ThomPete 10y ago
      You keep repeating the same mistaken idea that things that can't be automated are somehow going to be more scarce and thus expensive. I already gave you just one example of something thats not going to be more scarce, human cleaners. How is something all humans can do, going to be cheaper even if ai never can do it?
      - DanielBMarkham 10y ago
        Perhaps you misunderstand the nature of this argument. I don't have to be right all the time. I'm not saying that everything that can't be automated will automatically get more expensive. It's only necessary that some things do.
        coldtea 10y ago
        Actually it's necessary that enough, if not most, things do, else the lost jobs will be lost forever. But you're worse mistaken than just in quantity: there's no mechanism to make things that can't be automated more expensive. If anything it's exactly the opposite: they'll become cheaper and more plentiful: a) automation removes N jobs b) people who previously did those jobs turn to whatever they can find -- and they mainly turn to do what can't be automated. c) we now have MORE people doing what can't be automated: the people that were already doing it before automation, and the people who lost their jobs and turned to "doing things that can't be automated". d) Abundance of workers making those things (or offering those services), drives labour costs down, fills the market with those things/services and makes things/services that can't be automated get more devalued.
        ThomPete 10y ago
        I understand it perfectly well it's just wrong. I didn't ask you to be right all the time, you set that bar up yourself by claiming that things that couldn't get automated would get more rare. I just gave you an example of something that wouldn't get more expensive even if AI couldn't do it. And now that I think of it I am struggling to find anything that will get more more scarce if AI do almost everything else. That just means more humans, more potential competition and thus less rare.
- coldtea 10y ago
  >People want things they can't have. There's nothing about automation that says that thing that can't be automated become rarer than they are now. In fact, if people whose jobs were automated turn to creating those things (and what else could they do?), then things that can't be automated will be even more plentiful (and cheaper) than they are now.

DanielBMarkham 10y ago

People want things they can't have. The economy is not driven by humans logically picking just the basic resources they need for survival. It was never like that.

ThomPete 10y ago
What does that have to do with automation though? It's like that today. Thats not the discussion that we are having around automation.
- DanielBMarkham 10y ago
  The only thing that automation does is decrease the cost of things you can have towards zero. Everything else is the same. It used to be that fresh fruits were rare, sometimes even priceless. A huge number of people were required to grow, tend, harvest, transport, and sell fruit, especially in the off-months. That's all automated now. So the price of fresh fruit is tending towards zero. All of those people are not that doing that any more. Those people are still working, just not in jobs that are as heavily automated. There will always be something you cannot automate. Because you can't, it will be expensive. Because it is expensive, people will want it. It is not logical, but it is the way our species operates. So people do stuff, other people like it, then it's automated, then they find other stuff to do that's harder to automate. If your thesis is that there is some sort of universal automation coming? Maybe 300-500 years out, when the Great Singularity occurs (because these two events are the same thing). But no time soon. I will grant you that we currently have no freaking idea of what the economy in 2050 will look like. I believe this is the cool part of being mortal in our age -- things are always so goddamned different between when you're born and when you die.
  - ThomPete 10y ago
    You keep repeating the same mistaken idea that things that can't be automated are somehow going to be more scarce and thus expensive. I already gave you just one example of something thats not going to be more scarce, human cleaners. How is something all humans can do, going to be cheaper even if ai never can do it?
    - DanielBMarkham 10y ago
      Perhaps you misunderstand the nature of this argument. I don't have to be right all the time. I'm not saying that everything that can't be automated will automatically get more expensive. It's only necessary that some things do.
      - coldtea 10y ago
        Actually it's necessary that enough, if not most, things do, else the lost jobs will be lost forever. But you're worse mistaken than just in quantity: there's no mechanism to make things that can't be automated more expensive. If anything it's exactly the opposite: they'll become cheaper and more plentiful: a) automation removes N jobs b) people who previously did those jobs turn to whatever they can find -- and they mainly turn to do what can't be automated. c) we now have MORE people doing what can't be automated: the people that were already doing it before automation, and the people who lost their jobs and turned to "doing things that can't be automated". d) Abundance of workers making those things (or offering those services), drives labour costs down, fills the market with those things/services and makes things/services that can't be automated get more devalued.
      - ThomPete 10y ago
        I understand it perfectly well it's just wrong. I didn't ask you to be right all the time, you set that bar up yourself by claiming that things that couldn't get automated would get more rare. I just gave you an example of something that wouldn't get more expensive even if AI couldn't do it. And now that I think of it I am struggling to find anything that will get more more scarce if AI do almost everything else. That just means more humans, more potential competition and thus less rare.
coldtea 10y ago
>People want things they can't have. There's nothing about automation that says that thing that can't be automated become rarer than they are now. In fact, if people whose jobs were automated turn to creating those things (and what else could they do?), then things that can't be automated will be even more plentiful (and cheaper) than they are now.