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take a read at Scott Adams (Dilbert) blog, where he argues that the mainstream climate science community isn't just factually wrong, but they're actively deludi
by qohen 10y ago
take a read at Scott Adams (Dilbert) blog, where he argues that the mainstream climate science community isn't just factually wrong, but they're actively deluding themselves.
I don't think that's an accurate description of what he's saying -- he's made a point several times (e.g. [0][1]) of challenging the models, not the underlying science, comparing them to economic models, which he feels, having majored in economics (and having studied and built his own [1]) are not reliable. One may disagree with him about models and modeling, but I think it's helpful to understand what he's actually saying.
I'm putting an excerpt here from a recent blog post [0] he did which I think demonstrates my summary above to be a truer understanding of where he's coming from:
I’m not a scientist, but it seems to me that the chemistry and physics parts of climate science are probably pretty locked down. I give that stuff full credibility.
The measurements of temperature, ice, and sea levels over time are probably fairly good, but I observe disagreements among scientists on how best to measure. I’ll give the measurements an 85% credibility.
When it comes to the complex climate models, I’ve never seen a complex, iterative model – of the type that includes human assumptions and human measurements – reliably predict the future multiple years out. I don’t think it has ever been done, and perhaps it never will be. I give the complex climate models a 10% credibility rating. And I am only that generous because perhaps this is the exception to the pattern I observe that says complexity always hides the future, as opposed to predicting it.
BTW, I think the next paragraph, where he describes the psychological aspects of how people evaluate things when
they don't have deep expertise or knowledge is interesting and possibly useful for understanding how to get through to people (Adams' blogs a lot about persuasion/psychology and how so often that is more important than facts in shaping people's views of things):
This is a good time to remind you that I have neither the qualifications nor the time to evaluate the climate science models on my own. So I’m stuck with using pattern recognition – which is not science, and it is not reason. And my pattern recognizer says humans use complexity of this sort to hide the truth, not to reveal it. If scientists want to change my mind, they need to show me historical examples in which things “like this” did a good job of predicting the future. You have to work on my pattern memory to change my mind, not my knowledge of climate science.
Again, you may disagree with him about models and modelling, but he's identified why some intelligent people, who are not science-deniers, may have issues with some aspects of climate-science.
[0] http://blog.dilbert.com/post/158778029326/how-to-change-my-biases-on-climate-science http://blog.dilbert.com/post/158778029326/how-to-change-my-b...
[1] http://blog.dilbert.com/post/158549646496/how-leonardo-dicaprio-can-persuade-me-on-climate http://blog.dilbert.com/post/158549646496/how-leonardo-dicap...
- dragonwriter 10y ago> I don't think that's an accurate description at all of what he's saying -- he's made a point several times (e.g. [0][1] )of challenging the models, not the underlying science Science is the process of developing predictive models. Challenging models is challenging the science by which those models are developed. Trying to distinguish between these two is fundamentally misunderstanding what science is.
- lsh123 10y agoUnrelated to the climate change stuff I think you need to differentiate "the process" and "the models" (which is the result of the process). Epicycles (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deferent_and_epicycle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deferent_and_epicycle) was a good predictive model used for a while and developed as a part of science process. Yet, I think we all agree that Copernicus was right challenging them and he did it in accordance with the science process.
- brandmeyer 10y agoWe came full circle back to epicycles, though. Fourier transforms can be viewed as a way to model any periodic signal as an infinite series of epicycles.
- jamez1 10y agoModels are not inherently scientific, just because something is trying to make predictions doesn't make it scientific. May I ask, what do you think of economic models? Would you call them scientific? They are using similar underlying equations, both complex systems and they both make many assumptions.
- dragonwriter 10y ago> Models are not inherently scientific, just because something is trying to make predictions doesn't make it scientific. No, but science is about making predictive models, and you can't criticize a predictive model without criticize the science behind it, if it is a model which purports to be produced by science. > May I ask, what do you think of economic models? Would you call them scientific? That...depends. "Economic models" can mean either "models of the economy" or "models produced as part of the science of economics"; the latter are scientific the former may or may not be. And even among scientific models (in any domain, economics is in no way special in this regard) some are products of different stages of the scientific process; there are speculative models done in the exploratory stage of pre-hypothetical work in science, there are models that are concrete operationalizations of untested (or only loosely tested) hypotheses, and there are models which are themselves tested and represent the best current understanding of the phenomenon they are intended to model; these are all "scientific models", but they have different roles.