3 ms·
Maybe, but opinion polls got it wrong in the cases of Trump and Brexit. It seems a lot of people who intend vote on the right (for the want of a better term) a
by barking 10y ago
Maybe, but opinion polls got it wrong in the cases of Trump and Brexit.
It seems a lot of people who intend vote on the right (for the want of a better term) are coy about it when asked.
- mpweiher 10y agoI knew someone was going to mention that. Yes. However, I mostly talked about relative movement of polls. While not entirely impossible, it seems implausible that people should suddenly all get more coy. Especially after "their side" just had huge victories. If anything, I'd expect them to be less coy than before, because they just got validated. And the one absolute I mentioned about the French runoff is 2/3rd vs. 1/3rd. Trump and Brexit polls were never that far apart.
- barking 10y agoLe Pen is steady at about 1/3 Macron is at about the same with everyone expecting the final 1/3 to support him in a run-off. Seems pretty safe for Macron. I don't know much about France, is there ever much of a shift before the second vote historically?