7 ms·

Whilst you're perhaps correct, it's still not clear what triggering Article 50 actually means in practice. It's never been done and it's clear that the process

Whilst you're perhaps correct, it's still not clear what triggering Article 50 actually means in practice. It's never been done and it's clear that the process was never really designed with a view to ever be invoked.

jacquesm 10y ago
Well, once that's done as far as I understand it there is no way back, agreement or not, the clock ticks and after 2 years are up the separation is a fact. If people are hoping for a collapse of the Brexit after that point they are delusional, the only way this would reverse after that is by a new application, and I really don't see that ending up with the UK being in a better position after such a process than they have today. All kinds of exceptions were made to keep the UK in the EU, those are extremely unlikely to be granted a second time, especially not if the UK falls apart and Scotland ends up remaining. The British prime minister is now making a strong play to pull Scotland out of the EU against their wishes, we'll likely see a race between the 'brexit' negotiators on the UK side and the Scottish 'remain' camp who will try to stay in without first exiting. This is understandable from all points of view, the British government would rather like to negotiate from a slightly stronger position and the for the Scots because they were told they had to renegotiate their access to the single market if they seceded from the UK. Now that the British wish to exit that point has become moot which will most likely swing the referendum towards the Scots exiting the union. They probably feel quite cheated in Scotland.
- pimmen 10y ago
  But what that means in practice is another thing entirely. For example, the DPRK and the ROK are still at war with each other, but that just means that they stare down each other at a border. The UK could be officially outside of the EU but to the banks, universities and import-export companies EU cooperation is as much of a reality as ever. Really powerful entities want to keep their shareholders happy by avoiding complicated regulations on international activities, and they have a lot of political influence. The people of London for example are mighty pissed.
  - jacquesm 10y ago
    Unfortunately, that's not how it works. There is no such thing as 'out' but 'in', and no matter how pissed the people of London are their prime minister has just done something that is essentially irrevocable.
  - CaptainZapp 10y ago
    The UK could be officially outside of the EU but to the banks, universities and import-export companies EU cooperation is as much of a reality as ever. That's the wishful thinking so much projected by the brexiteers. And I believe they're very wrong. While London may remain a financial hub it will lose its importance. Multinational banks and insurances are alredy preparing to move entire departments to the continent. Especially France is extremely hard nosed in not providing the UK financial industry with passporting rights. Frankfurt and Luxembourg are also yapping happily about the prospects of new jobs and businesses. And London is about to lose the privilege to clear deals in Euros. Import / export has a lot to lose too. managing supply chains, without manufacturing just can't function in times of lean production and just-in-time manufacturing, gets incredibly harder and more expensive. Universities? If you believe that they will just shrug it off I'm afraid you're in for a huge surprise. English universities will lose EU research grants. But the worst is that they will lose on foreign talent. Real talented scientists will think hard if they want to move to England in the current xenophobic climate and seek out alternatives. The only bargaining chip that England really has is the defense industry and a pretty strong, experienced army, which helps provide security for Europe. Else then that? Not much. And BTW: Comparing the situation between the EU and England with that in Korea is, well, grasping for straws? in any case it's a really bad, if not ludicrous argument. Despite the defiance showed by some English politicians and the tabloid press I think that in reality England is in for a world of self-inflicted hurt. And mostly those people that enthusiastically voted to leave.
    - jacquesm 10y ago
      > The only bargaining chip that England really has is the defense industry and a pretty strong, experienced army, which helps provide security for Europe. Else then that? Not much. And that's under NATO right now, so the EU does not lose much in that respect.
- alphonsegaston 10y ago
  I'm pretty sure a mass political movement could in fact stop it. But it would have to be every Remainer out on the streets shutting things down kind of scenario. Our political autonomy extends beyond the proscriptions of those who govern us, whose express purpose is to create illusionary limits about our courses of action. Ghandhi and the Civil Rights movement demonstrated this, we've just been convinced into forgetting.
  - jacquesm 10y ago
    Chances of such a thing happening are extremely slim, but you are right, if all the remainers would simply shut the UK down then it might work, but that would require the rest of the EU to over-rule the signing of Article 50 by the current UK prime minister and I doubt they would go along with that. It might be worth a try, but last week would have been a much better time.
- patrickaljord 10y ago
  > Well, once that's done as far as I understand it there is no way back The UK has 2 year to retract as article 50 allows that. 2 years is a long period in UK politics during which a vote of no-confidence could happen, calling for new elections that could retract article 50. Even if the 2 years pass, the EU already said that they would fast track the UK back in if a future government wants to come back. This is not over.
  - jacquesm 10y ago
    I don't think you are correct, or at least, the UK supreme court thinks that you are not correct: https://www.businessinsider.nl/uk-supreme-court-article-50-notice-cannot-be-withdrawn-2017-1/?international=true&r=UK https://www.businessinsider.nl/uk-supreme-court-article-50-n...
    - blowski 10y ago
      It's possible they could extend negotiations. As long as the EU and UK parliaments both agree to do that, they can do whatever they like, as they can just change the law to support whatever they're trying to do. Whether there will be enough public support to do that is another matter entirely. Perhaps there will be another general election or referendum which will muddy the waters. If the last year has taught us anything, it's that the world is a very uncertain place right now, and all predictions are worthless.
      - jacquesm 10y ago
        Well, that may be how the UK sees it but I can pretty much guarantee that that is not how the rest of the EU will see things. The automatic end to the negotiations and finalization after two years is currently the law, it would probably be best to go on the assumption that that's exactly how it will play out. There is some sense on the UK side that the UK will come out of the negotiations in a better position than what they have right now in the EU, but the European side is adamant that no matter what the UK will not come out of this better than when they were a part of the EU, and this makes good sense (otherwise, why would any nation remain part of the bloc). Also, the UK has just handed the EU all their strong cards in the negotiations, and if the Scots exit the union that position will get weaker still. Keep in mind that the exceptional situation the UK has (had?) in the EU was always an annoyance to other member states but was tolerated in order to keep the UK in the EU. If the UK falls apart and Scotland re-joins (or even remains) then the UK negotiation position with respect to those exceptions has evaporated, something that would definitely be appreciated in other EU countries. Other general elections of referenda will not muddy the waters from an EU perspective, the deed is done, any regret will now take the form of a re-application, which will likely include the UK giving up their own currency, becoming a part of the Schengen area and getting rid of all the exceptions that were made for the UK. This was a dumb move if there ever was one, such major decisions should require a supermajority, not a simple majority and May did a huge dis-service to the UK just now. But by the time the chickens come home to roost she'll be enjoying her pension sitting under banner reading 'I gave the people of England what they asked for, not what they needed'.
- SideburnsOfDoom 10y ago
  > Well, once that's done as far as I understand it there is no way back It seems that EU lawmaking bodies disagree with you: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-stop-article-50-leave-eu-politicans-donald-tusk-philippe-lamberts-michel-barnier-european-a7655166.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-stop-ar...
  - jacquesm 10y ago
    That's contrary to this (but more recent, in fact, it isn't law right now): https://www.businessinsider.nl/uk-supreme-court-article-50-notice-cannot-be-withdrawn-2017-1/?international=true&r=UK https://www.businessinsider.nl/uk-supreme-court-article-50-n... And I note that it requires unanimous agreement between all the other member states, which is a very rare thing. So a very thin maybe.
    - SideburnsOfDoom 10y ago
      Same publication, today: http://uk.businessinsider.com/eu-brexit-resolution-article-50-can-be-revoked-2017-3 http://uk.businessinsider.com/eu-brexit-resolution-article-5...
      - jacquesm 10y ago
        Well, here's to hoping. But that's very thin ice. Maybe it will grow a bit thicker in the next two years.
        SideburnsOfDoom 10y ago
        Yeah, I could see it going the other way as well. Easy for 1 or more member states to say "Why should we let you back? You're always asking for other special deal."

jacquesm 10y ago

Well, once that's done as far as I understand it there is no way back, agreement or not, the clock ticks and after 2 years are up the separation is a fact. If people are hoping for a collapse of the Brexit after that point they are delusional, the only way this would reverse after that is by a new application, and I really don't see that ending up with the UK being in a better position after such a process than they have today. All kinds of exceptions were made to keep the UK in the EU, those are extremely unlikely to be granted a second time, especially not if the UK falls apart and Scotland ends up remaining. The British prime minister is now making a strong play to pull Scotland out of the EU against their wishes, we'll likely see a race between the 'brexit' negotiators on the UK side and the Scottish 'remain' camp who will try to stay in without first exiting. This is understandable from all points of view, the British government would rather like to negotiate from a slightly stronger position and the for the Scots because they were told they had to renegotiate their access to the single market if they seceded from the UK. Now that the British wish to exit that point has become moot which will most likely swing the referendum towards the Scots exiting the union. They probably feel quite cheated in Scotland.

pimmen 10y ago
But what that means in practice is another thing entirely. For example, the DPRK and the ROK are still at war with each other, but that just means that they stare down each other at a border. The UK could be officially outside of the EU but to the banks, universities and import-export companies EU cooperation is as much of a reality as ever. Really powerful entities want to keep their shareholders happy by avoiding complicated regulations on international activities, and they have a lot of political influence. The people of London for example are mighty pissed.
- jacquesm 10y ago
  Unfortunately, that's not how it works. There is no such thing as 'out' but 'in', and no matter how pissed the people of London are their prime minister has just done something that is essentially irrevocable.
- CaptainZapp 10y ago
  The UK could be officially outside of the EU but to the banks, universities and import-export companies EU cooperation is as much of a reality as ever. That's the wishful thinking so much projected by the brexiteers. And I believe they're very wrong. While London may remain a financial hub it will lose its importance. Multinational banks and insurances are alredy preparing to move entire departments to the continent. Especially France is extremely hard nosed in not providing the UK financial industry with passporting rights. Frankfurt and Luxembourg are also yapping happily about the prospects of new jobs and businesses. And London is about to lose the privilege to clear deals in Euros. Import / export has a lot to lose too. managing supply chains, without manufacturing just can't function in times of lean production and just-in-time manufacturing, gets incredibly harder and more expensive. Universities? If you believe that they will just shrug it off I'm afraid you're in for a huge surprise. English universities will lose EU research grants. But the worst is that they will lose on foreign talent. Real talented scientists will think hard if they want to move to England in the current xenophobic climate and seek out alternatives. The only bargaining chip that England really has is the defense industry and a pretty strong, experienced army, which helps provide security for Europe. Else then that? Not much. And BTW: Comparing the situation between the EU and England with that in Korea is, well, grasping for straws? in any case it's a really bad, if not ludicrous argument. Despite the defiance showed by some English politicians and the tabloid press I think that in reality England is in for a world of self-inflicted hurt. And mostly those people that enthusiastically voted to leave.
  - jacquesm 10y ago
    > The only bargaining chip that England really has is the defense industry and a pretty strong, experienced army, which helps provide security for Europe. Else then that? Not much. And that's under NATO right now, so the EU does not lose much in that respect.
alphonsegaston 10y ago
I'm pretty sure a mass political movement could in fact stop it. But it would have to be every Remainer out on the streets shutting things down kind of scenario. Our political autonomy extends beyond the proscriptions of those who govern us, whose express purpose is to create illusionary limits about our courses of action. Ghandhi and the Civil Rights movement demonstrated this, we've just been convinced into forgetting.
- jacquesm 10y ago
  Chances of such a thing happening are extremely slim, but you are right, if all the remainers would simply shut the UK down then it might work, but that would require the rest of the EU to over-rule the signing of Article 50 by the current UK prime minister and I doubt they would go along with that. It might be worth a try, but last week would have been a much better time.
patrickaljord 10y ago
> Well, once that's done as far as I understand it there is no way back The UK has 2 year to retract as article 50 allows that. 2 years is a long period in UK politics during which a vote of no-confidence could happen, calling for new elections that could retract article 50. Even if the 2 years pass, the EU already said that they would fast track the UK back in if a future government wants to come back. This is not over.
- jacquesm 10y ago
  I don't think you are correct, or at least, the UK supreme court thinks that you are not correct: https://www.businessinsider.nl/uk-supreme-court-article-50-notice-cannot-be-withdrawn-2017-1/?international=true&r=UK https://www.businessinsider.nl/uk-supreme-court-article-50-n...
  - blowski 10y ago
    It's possible they could extend negotiations. As long as the EU and UK parliaments both agree to do that, they can do whatever they like, as they can just change the law to support whatever they're trying to do. Whether there will be enough public support to do that is another matter entirely. Perhaps there will be another general election or referendum which will muddy the waters. If the last year has taught us anything, it's that the world is a very uncertain place right now, and all predictions are worthless.
    - jacquesm 10y ago
      Well, that may be how the UK sees it but I can pretty much guarantee that that is not how the rest of the EU will see things. The automatic end to the negotiations and finalization after two years is currently the law, it would probably be best to go on the assumption that that's exactly how it will play out. There is some sense on the UK side that the UK will come out of the negotiations in a better position than what they have right now in the EU, but the European side is adamant that no matter what the UK will not come out of this better than when they were a part of the EU, and this makes good sense (otherwise, why would any nation remain part of the bloc). Also, the UK has just handed the EU all their strong cards in the negotiations, and if the Scots exit the union that position will get weaker still. Keep in mind that the exceptional situation the UK has (had?) in the EU was always an annoyance to other member states but was tolerated in order to keep the UK in the EU. If the UK falls apart and Scotland re-joins (or even remains) then the UK negotiation position with respect to those exceptions has evaporated, something that would definitely be appreciated in other EU countries. Other general elections of referenda will not muddy the waters from an EU perspective, the deed is done, any regret will now take the form of a re-application, which will likely include the UK giving up their own currency, becoming a part of the Schengen area and getting rid of all the exceptions that were made for the UK. This was a dumb move if there ever was one, such major decisions should require a supermajority, not a simple majority and May did a huge dis-service to the UK just now. But by the time the chickens come home to roost she'll be enjoying her pension sitting under banner reading 'I gave the people of England what they asked for, not what they needed'.
SideburnsOfDoom 10y ago
> Well, once that's done as far as I understand it there is no way back It seems that EU lawmaking bodies disagree with you: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-stop-article-50-leave-eu-politicans-donald-tusk-philippe-lamberts-michel-barnier-european-a7655166.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-stop-ar...
- jacquesm 10y ago
  That's contrary to this (but more recent, in fact, it isn't law right now): https://www.businessinsider.nl/uk-supreme-court-article-50-notice-cannot-be-withdrawn-2017-1/?international=true&r=UK https://www.businessinsider.nl/uk-supreme-court-article-50-n... And I note that it requires unanimous agreement between all the other member states, which is a very rare thing. So a very thin maybe.
  - SideburnsOfDoom 10y ago
    Same publication, today: http://uk.businessinsider.com/eu-brexit-resolution-article-50-can-be-revoked-2017-3 http://uk.businessinsider.com/eu-brexit-resolution-article-5...
    - jacquesm 10y ago
      Well, here's to hoping. But that's very thin ice. Maybe it will grow a bit thicker in the next two years.
      - SideburnsOfDoom 10y ago
        Yeah, I could see it going the other way as well. Easy for 1 or more member states to say "Why should we let you back? You're always asking for other special deal."